Tesla's success and potential for "Total Domination" in the automotive industry is driven by their advanced technology and their ability to revolutionize vehicle production
Questions to inspire discussion
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What is the analyst's best idea for 2024 regarding Tesla's stock?
—The analyst's best idea for 2024 is to short Tesla's stock, despite the risky and historically unsuccessful nature of such a bet.
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What has been the trend in Tesla's sales volume since 2019?
—Tesla's sales volume has more than quadrupled since 2019, disproving claims of weakness in the company's sales and demand.
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What is causing pressure on the sales of large consumer products?
—Interest rates have increased from essentially zero to almost 6%, causing pressure on the sales of large consumer products and affecting the ability of consumers to finance vehicle and mortgage purchases.
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What is Tesla's plan to lower vehicle costs and transition to sustainable energy?
—Tesla plans to lower vehicle costs and pass on savings to transition to sustainable energy, but the impact of soaring interest rates and uncertain future cost reductions make it difficult to predict future growth and margins.
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What is the impact of Tesla's next vehicle and production scale on their growth?
—Tesla's growth may be slow in the next year or two, but the impact of their next vehicle and production scale should not be ignored, with a fair value of $120 per share assuming 177% operating margins and 10 million cars sold in 2050.
Key insights
- 📈 Any analyst whose best idea for an entire year has ever been to short Tesla's stock is in the wrong career.
- 🤔 It's questionable why Tony is considered a top tech analyst when he's actually a confused automotive analyst.
- 🚗 Tesla's intent has never been to compete in the high-end luxury vehicle market and stay there, but that's just where they debut.
- 📉 Tesla stock nearly tripled from the point of a bearish call by Bernstein, proving the market's unpredictability.
- 💰 Affordability, not demand, is currently the major problem affecting consumer purchases, with interest rates rising from essentially zero to almost 6% in a short period of time.
- 🚗 Tesla is set to revolutionize vehicle production with an entirely new modular system designed to increase speed and affordability.
- 🤔 Tesla's success challenges the claim of a demand problem: "Tesla quarterly sales have more than quadrupled since Q3 2019."
- 📈 The speaker anticipates Tesla's entry into new segments will lead to "Total Domination" once again, emphasizing the company's advanced technology and potential impact.
#Tesla
Clips
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00:00 📉 Tesla stock shorted in 2024 despite analyst's consistently wrong predictions, as sales volume quadrupled since 2019.
- An analyst's best idea for 2024 is to short Tesla's stock, despite the risky and historically unsuccessful nature of such a bet.
- Tony Sagi has been consistently wrong in his analysis of Tesla stock, with a 25-200% gain and no buyer rating, and is actually a confused automotive analyst.
- Tesla's sales volume has more than quadrupled since 2019, disproving claims of weakness in the company's sales and demand.
- In 2019, Tesla's Model S and X sales were declining due to competition from European luxury vehicles, particularly from Jaguar and Audi.
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04:18 📉 Tesla's sales are facing challenges due to competition and demand issues, while interest rate increases are impacting consumer purchasing power.
- Tesla's competitors' products were concerning for Tesla's sales, but despite negative predictions, Tesla's stock nearly tripled and Apple's best days were also predicted to be behind it.
- Tesla is facing a demand issue due to its narrow and expensive product family, and there is recent weakening of EV demand.
- Tesla had to cut prices in 2023 and will likely need to do so again in 2024, with no chance of hearing references to their secret master plan to make electric vehicles affordable.
- Interest rates have increased from essentially zero to almost 6%, causing pressure on the sales of large consumer products and affecting the ability of consumers to finance vehicle and mortgage purchases.
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08:02 📉 Tesla stock has suffered since Elon announced plans to acquire Twitter, with pressure from soaring interest rates leading to price cuts and a focus on selling through volume, but there is hope that interest rates will come down and consumers will be able to purchase vehicles.
- Tesla stock has not done well since Elon announced he would acquire Twitter in April 2022, and the pressure of soaring interest rates has led to price cuts and a focus on selling through volume.
- Tesla plans to lower vehicle costs and pass on savings to transition to sustainable energy, but the impact of soaring interest rates and uncertain future cost reductions make it difficult to predict future growth and margins.
- Tesar may not have to lower prices on their vehicles, as the speaker predicts interest rates will come down and consumers who previously couldn't get financing will be able to purchase vehicles.
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10:26 🚗 Tesla's growth may be slow in the next few years, but they have a new vehicle in the works and are planning to increase production speed and affordability with a new modular system in 2025.
- Tesla is predicted to disappoint in 2024, with limited growth and a slow truck ramp, but they have a new vehicle in the works.
- Tesla is planning to build production lines in Austin and will begin production in 2025 with a new modular system designed to increase the speed and affordability of vehicle production.
- Tesla's growth may be slow in the next year or two, but the impact of their next vehicle and production scale should not be ignored, with a fair value of $120 per share assuming 177% operating margins and 10 million cars sold in 2050, but the speaker also suggests setting a reminder to check back in 2027 to see how many vehicles Tesla has sold.
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13:02 🚗 Tesla's struggles are attributed to pricing their vehicles too high during interest rate hikes, leading to continuous price reductions, but they do not have a demand problem as their sales have quadrupled and the Model Y is on track to sell 1.45 million units in 2023.
- Tesla's struggles are being attributed to pricing their vehicles at market clearing prices during a period of interest rate hikes, leading to continuous price reductions through 2023.
- Elon Musk publicly expressed embarrassment over the high prices of Tesla vehicles, and a few months later, the prices started to come down, but there was no mention of this by Bernstein.
- During a period of high interest rates, Tesla is experiencing a demand problem due to a narrow product range, as evidenced by the model 3's market share.
- Tesla does not have a demand problem, despite claims from Bernstein, as their quarterly sales have quadrupled and the Model Y is on track to sell 1.45 million units in 2023.
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16:56 🚗 Tesla's single model has higher market share than top three combined, entering new segments with advanced platforms, Bernstein's predictions may not matter, stock consistently underestimated, criticism of analysts' reasoning.
- Tesla's single vehicle model has a higher market share than the combined market share of the top three vehicles in the same segment, despite the belief that Tesla needs more models and variations.
- Tesla is entering new segments with advanced vehicle platforms, and Bernstein's predictions may not matter in the long run.
- Tesla stock has been consistently underestimated by Bernstein, who do not understand electric vehicles or technology, and their idea to short Tesla stock in 2024 is not credible.
- The speaker criticizes the reasoning of analysts who believe that Tesla's price cuts indicate a lack of demand, while ignoring factors such as Elon Musk's pricing strategy and the company's next generation vehicle.
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20:38 👍 Taking ag1 has provided increased energy, improved health, mental acuity, and weight loss, leading to improved productivity and motivation.
- Ag1 has provided a significant energy boost and improved overall health for many people, with a free supply of vitamin D3 and K2 available.
- Taking ag1 has helped with mental acuity, stamina, intestinal waste management, reduced sugar cravings, and weight loss, providing more energy for easier living.
- Increased energy and reduced afternoon fatigue after using a product, leading to improved productivity and disbelief in the results.
- The speaker is grateful for the extra energy and motivation they have gained from a product, and encourages others to try it.
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24:17 🐍 People who criticize ag1 are probably just shorting Tesla stock, but the speaker encourages them to try it and get their money back if it doesn't work.
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