Tesla's projected growth in robotaxi services, full self-driving technology, and energy production could lead to a significant increase in revenue and market valuation by 2025, potentially reaching $25 trillion
Questions to inspire discussion
Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) Progress
πQ: When will Tesla's FSD be feature complete for unsupervised driving?
A: Tesla's FSD 13 release in Q2 2023 is expected to be feature complete for unsupervised driving, with safety improvements projected to achieve superhuman driving by mid-2025.
πQ: How will FSD 13 compare to human driving?
A: FSD 13 is anticipated to be 5-6 times better than human driving in terms of disengagement rate, potentially reaching superhuman driving levels as early as Q2 2023.
FSD Adoption and Impact
πQ: How might FSD 13 affect Tesla's adoption rates?
A: FSD adoption could increase from 12% to 25% with FSD 13's release in Q2 2023, potentially reaching 50% or higher in the US and even higher in China by Q2 2024.
Tesla's Energy Business Growth
β‘Q: What growth is expected in Tesla's energy business?
A: Tesla's energy business is projected to reach full production of 40 GWh in California and 80 GWh in Shanghai by Q2 2023, with 30% margins and quarterly revenue increasing from $700-800M to $1.5B.
Robotaxi Impact on Tesla
πQ: How might robotaxis affect Tesla's production and value?
A: Tesla's robotaxi rollout could boost car production from 2M to 4-7M cars annually by end of 2024, potentially generating $3B in annual revenue and reaching a valuation of $1.5T.
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Key Insights
Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) Progress
πTesla's FSD 13 release in Q2 2023 will be feature complete for unsupervised driving, with superhuman driving capabilities expected by mid-2025.
πFSD 13 is projected to be 5-6 times better than human driving in terms of disengagement rate, potentially reaching superhuman driving levels as early as Q2 2023.
FSD Adoption and Market Impact
πFSD adoption rate could surge from 12% to 25% with FSD 13's release, potentially reaching 50% or higher in the US and even more in China by Q2 2024.
πTesla's robotaxi rollout in California and Texas could generate up to $3B in annual revenue, with 50% of Tesla's California fleet potentially dedicated to robotaxi services by Q3 2023.
Production and Financial Implications
πTesla's robotaxi demand could drive car production from 2M to 4M annually, potentially reaching 6M-7M cars per year by the end of 2024, with the robotaxi business potentially valued at $1.5T.
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XMentions: @Tesla @HabitatsDigital @NextBigFutureΒ
Clips
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00:00 π Tesla's robotaxi value is set to soar by 2025 with superhuman driving capabilities and projected FSD subscription revenue reaching $1.5 to $2 billion per quarter from increased global adoption.
- Tesla is expected to achieve superhuman driving capabilities by Q2 next year, significantly enhancing its robotaxi value and market position.
- Tesla's FSD subscription revenue could significantly increase to $1.5 to $2 billion per quarter by mid-2025 due to higher adoption rates and market expansion into Europe and Asia.
- Increased adoption of Tesla's full self-driving technology in major markets like China and Europe, along with subscription growth, could significantly boost revenue.
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20:14 π Tesla's growth in car sales and self-driving tech could surpass competitors, with its share price not yet reflecting the full potential of FSD and energy solutions.
- Tesla's potential for increased car sales and significant income from self-driving technology could outpace competitors, highlighting the urgency for other manufacturers to adapt.
- Tesla's share price has not fully accounted for the potential of Full Self-Driving (FSD) and energy solutions like mega packs.
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27:55 β‘ Tesla's Shanghai factory will enhance energy production to 80 GWh/year, driving profits as analysts note the revenue potential from energy operations amid slower U.S. infrastructure deployment.
- The Shanghai factory, nearing completion, will significantly boost Tesla's energy production capacity to 80 gigawatt hours per year, leading to substantial profits as analysts recognize the impact of increased revenue from energy operations.
- In the U.S., connecting large energy equipment is slow and inefficient compared to China's rapid installation and deployment of renewable energy infrastructure.
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35:19 π By early 2025, Tesla's revenue is projected to surge from the Shanghai factory, full self-driving adoption, and IRA funding, potentially reaching a billion dollars a quarter, enhancing investor confidence.
- They could achieve it if they received the pack in January and installed it by February.
- By early 2025, Tesla is expected to see increased revenue from the Shanghai factory and improved full self-driving uptake, potentially benefiting stockholders.
- Tesla is expected to see significant revenue growth from IRA funding for battery production, potentially reaching a billion dollars a quarter by mid-2025, boosting investor confidence.
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43:19 π Tesla's revenue from Full Self-Driving could soar with increased adoption in the U.S. and China, but it may face challenges similar to Nvidia's amid competition and growth concerns.
- Tesla's potential revenue from Full Self-Driving (FSD) could significantly increase, especially with higher adoption rates in the U.S. and a surge in Chinese signups.
- The upper middle and upper class in China are significant consumers of luxury items, often more so than Americans, as evidenced by their dominance in global luxury sales.
- Nvidia's stock surged significantly after the rise of AI, but concerns about future growth and competition tempered its valuation, paralleling potential challenges Tesla may face despite advancements in technology.
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53:28 π Tesla's share price will be influenced by its revenue growth, market expansion, energy and battery ventures, and the anticipated launch of robotaxis by 2025.
- Tesla's ability to consistently meet and exceed revenue expectations, along with successful expansion into new markets and potential licensing deals with major automakers, will significantly impact its share price.
- Tesla's potential growth hinges on its expanding energy and battery businesses, the future of robotaxis, and the semi-truck market, despite some projections pushing robotaxi implementation to 2040.
- Tesla plans to launch Robo taxis for testing next year, with full production and street deployment expected by the third quarter, potentially involving 10,000 to 20,000 employees in California.
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01:04:06 π Tesla's Robotaxi services could generate $3 billion in revenue, driving significant growth and profit margins, contingent on regulatory approvals in key markets.
- With increased vehicle availability and ride frequency, Tesla's potential revenue from Robotaxi services could reach $3 billion.
- Tesla's potential market disruption with robotaxis could lead to significant profit margins and growth, especially with regulatory approvals in California and China, despite risks of delays.
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01:11:16 π Tesla could be valued at $25 trillion by 2025 as it ramps up to 1.5 million robotaxi-capable cars in California and potentially produces 7 million vehicles by 2026.
- By mid-next summer, California will have 1.5 million Tesla cars capable of robotaxi service, with an estimated 50,000 operational by the third quarter.
- Tesla will significantly increase revenue by transitioning leased and trade-in vehicles into their fleet for robotaxi operations, potentially reaching maximum production capacity of 4 million vehicles.
- Tesla's car production could surge to nearly 7 million by 2026 if robotaxi technology is fully realized, significantly altering market expectations and growth projections.
- Tesla's potential value could reach $25 trillion by 2025 with fully operational robotaxis and the integration of Tesla bots for various applications.Β
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Duration: 0:24:24
Publication Date: 2024-11-04T18:20:33Z
WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H5F5FSFslFo-------------------------------------