Tesla to Make Other Embodied AI Products. What? Future of Reg Credits, Energy Deferred Profits HUGE

Tesla's Robo-Taxi Launch

🚕 Q: When is Tesla's Austin robo-taxi launch expected?
A: Tesla's Austin robo-taxi launch is scheduled for June 2025, with Elon Musk anticipating it to be a material financial event by mid-2025.

🚀 Q: How will Tesla scale its robo-taxi fleet?
A: Tesla will scale its robo-taxi fleet based on demand, starting with 10-20 vehicles in Austin and using AI analysis of app usage to optimize fleet size.

💰 Q: What potential business model could emerge for personal robo-taxi fleets?
A: An Airbnb-like model for personal robo-taxi fleets could drive significant consumer interest and demand.

Tesla's AI Investments

🤖 Q: How much has Tesla invested in AI infrastructure?
A: Tesla's AI infrastructure investment surged from $1.5B to $5.4B in just five quarters, indicating a massive commitment to AI capabilities.

💻 Q: What is unique about Tesla's AI supercomputer?
A: Tesla's AI supercomputer is the largest in the world designed for real-world training, used for Optimus robots and other moving objects.

📚 Q: How might AI impact education?
A: AI tutors could potentially travel with each child throughout their school career, focusing on individual strengths and weaknesses.

Tesla's Financial Performance

💵 Q: What is Tesla's regulatory credit revenue?
A: Tesla's regulatory credit revenue reached an all-time high of $2.9 billion in the last 12 months, with a cumulative total of $12.2 billion since 2011.

📈 Q: What is Tesla's indicative revenue?
A: Tesla's indicative revenue combines reported revenue, deferred revenue for regulatory credits, and unsatisfied performance obligations, suggesting potential growth in the energy business.

🔋 Q: How much deferred revenue does Tesla have in its energy business?
A: Tesla's deferred revenue and unsatisfied performance obligations in the energy business total $12 billion.

Future Economic Trends

💹 Q: How might AI affect asset values?
A: Deflationary forces from AI may increase scarcity premium on limited assets like gold, Bitcoin, and real estate, while abundant goods approach zero cost.

🏠 Q: Which assets might see significant price increases in the future?
A: Assets with scarcity, such as oceanfront houses, may see significant price increases as abundant goods become cheaper.

💼 Q: What's the current sentiment among institutional investors?
A: Fund managers are currently the most bearish on US assets in 30 years, which can be a contra indicator.

Tesla's Product Development

🤖 Q: What other AI products might Tesla develop?
A: Tesla may develop AI-driven products like drones, forklifts, heavy equipment, and tractors, creating opportunities in various industries.

⚡ Q: How is Tesla using Megapacks internally?
A: Tesla is using Megapacks for their own charging centers, which may be more valuable than selling to external customers.

Tesla's Future Growth Projections

📊 Q: What are Tesla's revenue growth projections?
A: Tesla's indicative revenue growth suggests potential doubling in 2025 and 50% increase in 2026 compared to 2025.

🏭 Q: What's driving Tesla's energy business growth?
A: Tesla's energy business growth is driven by the new Texas Megapack factory and existing backlog.

💼 Q: How are Tesla's unsatisfied performance obligations structured?
A: Tesla's $10B unsatisfied performance obligations are 50% short-term (next 12 months) and 50% long-term, indicating strong future revenue growth.

🚗 Q: How long has the FOMO around Tesla's robo-taxi opportunity persisted?
A: The FOMO around Tesla's robo-taxi opportunity has persisted for six years and is expected to increase until the June 2025 launch.

AI and Robotics

🤖 Tesla's $8.4B investment in AI infrastructure ($3B in compute, $5.4B in AI) is funded by $12.2B in regulatory credit revenue since 2011, enabling massive returns and future income generation.

🚗 Tesla's Austin robo-taxi launch in June 2025 is expected to start with 10-20 vehicles, rapidly scaling as demand grows, potentially becoming the fastest ramp ever for Tesla.

🧠 Tesla's AI infrastructure is anticipated to enable unsupervised driving, potentially leading to a massive uptick in consumer sales and demand for Tesla vehicles.

🦾 Tesla's AI capabilities may extend beyond cars to autonomous drones, forklifts, heavy equipment, and tractors, particularly in countries with low current tractor usage.

Financial Projections

💰 Elon Musk expects Tesla's robo-taxi service to significantly impact the company's bottom line in the second half of 2024, with an exponential ramp thereafter.

📈 Tesla's energy business reported $11B in revenue over the last 12 months, nearly doubling from $6.1B a year ago, with a significant $6B+ disparity between indicative and reported revenue.

🔋 Tesla's mega pack revenue could double in the next 12 months and increase 50% in 2026 compared to 2025, driven by new factories in Texas and Shanghai.

💼 Tesla's $12B in combined deferred revenue and unsatisfied performance obligations in energy is largely contractual, indicating substantial future revenue growth.

Market Dynamics

🏠 Tesla's robo-taxi service is anticipated to create a new market for vehicle owners who want to operate their own fleet when the Airbnb-like version becomes available.

🌐 In a future with abundant goods and services, scarce assets like gold, Bitcoin, and real estate may see their value soar due to increased scarcity relative to other goods.

🤑 AI is expected to be one of the biggest deflationary forces in history, potentially leading to massive job displacement and increased government spending.

Education and Society

🎓 Future education systems may incorporate AI tutors for each child, focusing on individual strengths and weaknesses in ways human educators cannot.

Tesla's Strategic Positioning

🔬 Tesla's $12B in regulatory credits since 2011 has funded nearly one-third of its $53B total capex, enabling AI infrastructure buildout to compete against automakers not investing in this capability.

🔋 Tesla's internal mega pack sales are growing, with 48 mega packs being installed at a new charging center in Texas, integrating solar and batteries from the start.

Financial Indicators

📊 Tesla's unsatisfied performance obligations totaled $10B, with $5B expected to be recognized as revenue in the next 12 months, indicating strong near-term growth.

📅 The $3B in unsatisfied performance obligations in Q4 2023 led to revenue growth in the following quarters, suggesting a pattern of future revenue realization.

💹 🏦 Tesla still has $4.5B in deferred regulatory credits to recognize, further supporting its financial position and future investments.

• 00:00 🚗 Tesla aims to launch fully autonomous rides in Austin by June, adjusting production for increased robo taxi demand, with potential for significant growth in unsupervised driving and personal fleets.
  • Cern Basher and the speaker plan to explore more intriguing topics in their next video, building on their previous discussion of the earnings call.
  • Gary Black argues that the Austin roboaxi launch will be a limited experiment rather than a true test market, which Randy Kirk strongly disagrees with.
  • Elon Musk anticipates that fully autonomous rides will begin selling in Austin by June, with significant financial impact expected in the second half of next year, despite differing opinions on the strategy's viability.
  • Tesla plans to adjust vehicle production based on demand, anticipating a higher need for robo taxis than initially projected.
  • If Tesla's plans succeed in June without major obstacles, streamlined regulations could significantly accelerate their progress.
  • The future of Tesla's growth lies in unsupervised driving and the potential for personal fleets, which will significantly increase consumer demand for their vehicles.
• 08:38 🚗 Tesla's substantial investments in AI infrastructure and ongoing development are fueling FOMO around its robo taxi rollout, which could lead to a sell-off if excitement builds without major issues.
  • FOMO surrounding Tesla's robo taxi opportunity is expected to increase until June, potentially leading to a sell-off if the rollout generates significant excitement without major issues.
  • As of December 2023, Tesla has invested approximately $40 billion in property, plant, and equipment, including $1.5 billion specifically for AI infrastructure.
  • Tesla is investing heavily in tooling, leasehold improvements, computer equipment, and construction in progress, with significant financial allocations reflecting ongoing development and expansion.
  • Tesla's investments have significantly increased across various sectors, with the most notable growth in AI infrastructure, rising from 1.5 billion to 5.4 billion in just five quarters.
  • Depreciation is an accounting measure that doesn't always reflect the actual value or usefulness of assets, which can vary significantly in different circumstances.
• 14:09 🚀 Tesla is ramping up investments in AI infrastructure and supercomputing to develop a range of autonomous products beyond robo-taxis, including potential AI tutors for education.
  • Tesla is significantly increasing its investments, with a notable rise in construction progress from December 2023 to March 2024.
  • Tesla's significant investment in AI infrastructure increased by $1.4 billion in the fourth quarter, alongside a $544 million rise in tooling for new production lines.
  • Elon Musk is investing heavily in a new supercomputer for real-world AI applications, indicating that Tesla plans to develop additional products beyond just robo-taxis and Optimus.
  • Tesla's Cortex facility may lead to the development of various autonomous products like drones and tractors, but building capacity for these products will require significant infrastructure investment.
  • Tesla's future AI developments, particularly with Optimus, will require significant computational resources, potentially influencing their capital expenditures, while the extent of their involvement in various autonomous products remains uncertain.
  • AI tutors for children could revolutionize education by personalizing learning and adapting to individual strengths and weaknesses, especially as traditional education systems evolve due to automation.
• 23:04 🚗 Tesla's record $2.9 billion in regulatory credits and over $11 billion in energy revenue highlight its unique position in AI and battery storage, signaling strong future growth despite revenue recognition challenges.
  • Tesla's regulatory credit revenue reached a record $2.9 billion over the past year, contributing significantly to its capital expenditures and infrastructure development.
  • Tesla's significant investments in AI infrastructure and computer hardware have resulted in substantial credit revenue, positioning the company uniquely in the automotive industry with high returns on invested capital.
  • Tesla Energy's revenue has surged to over $11 billion in the past year, driven by significant increases in deferred revenue and unsatisfied performance obligations, indicating strong future growth potential.
  • Deferred revenue and unsatisfied performance obligations for Tesla have reached $12 billion, with expectations that future revenue will maintain similar profit margins rather than significantly higher ones.
  • Wall Street is overlooking Tesla's rapidly growing business in battery storage, which shows favorable trends despite revenue recognition challenges and is less affected by consumer demand.
  • Websites allow users to purchase AI products similarly to buying a Tesla vehicle, with options for varying quantities.
• 36:19 ⚡ Tesla anticipates significant revenue growth, with projections of $17.5 billion by Q1 2026, driven by new products, mega packs, and expanded charging infrastructure.
  • The discussion highlights the transparency of the system and raises questions about its comparison to the average selling price (ASP).
  • Current pricing of mega packs may reflect a decreasing average selling price, potentially dropping to $500,000 by the decade's end.
  • Tesla has $10 billion in unsatisfied performance obligations, with about $5 billion expected to be recognized as revenue in the next 12 months, indicating significant growth in long-term obligations.
  • Tesla's revenue is expected to double over the next 12 months, with significant growth anticipated from new facilities and products.
  • Projected Tesla revenue for Q1 2026 could reach approximately $17.5 billion, with Q2 of this year potentially nearing $13 billion, influenced by internal sales and mega pack purchases.
  • Tesla is rapidly expanding its charging infrastructure in Texas, integrating solar and battery systems, while managing production levels to prioritize internal energy needs over external sales.
• 43:20 📉 Fund managers are bearish on US assets, while AI's deflationary impact may drive governments to print more money, boosting the value of scarce assets like gold.
  • Fund managers are highly bearish on US assets, indicating a potential market recovery, while opinions on gold's future vary, with some believing it has peaked.
  • AI is poised to unleash unprecedented deflationary forces across various sectors, including technology and transportation.
  • Governments facing heavy debt will likely print more money to address deflation and unemployment caused by AI advancements, potentially increasing the value of supply-constrained assets like gold.
  • Scarce assets will increase in value over time as other assets become more abundant, leading to a higher scarcity premium.
• 47:47 🔮 Tesla is positioning itself for a future of increasing scarcity and value in unique assets, driven by technological advancements and AI integration, which will reshape investment and pricing dynamics.
  • In a future where scarcity increases, the value of unique assets, including those in a sovereign wealth fund, will become significantly more important.
  • Scarcity will increase the value of certain assets while others become abundant and essentially worthless, leading to a shift in where money is invested.
  • Technological advancements are driving costs of communication and energy towards zero, potentially leading to free energy within the next few years.
  • Abundant goods and services will trend towards zero cost, while scarce items will see prices soar with increased demand.
  • In an AI-driven future, scarcity will drive prices up significantly while other goods become cheaper, with Tesla's advancements in robotics and technology marking the beginning of this transformation.
  • Tesla is exploring the integration of philosophy and futurism into their AI products to address concerns and fears in the industry.
• 54:28 🤖 Tesla plans to expand into other embodied AI products while discussing the future of regulatory credits and significant energy profit deferrals.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FPrvP0PB_MA