Tesla: The Writing Is All Over the Wall

Tesla's FSD Progress

🚗 Q: How has Tesla's FSD version 13 performed in recent tests?
A: FSD v13 on hardware 4 showed incredible performance with no unplanned disengagements over 490 miles of winding mountain and coastal roads, including navigating flagger-regulated oncoming traffic.

🌎 Q: What are the expectations for Tesla's FSD version 14?
A: FSD v14 is expected to be overfit for Austin and potentially deployed unsupervised globally in a short timeframe, subject to regulatory approval.

Tesla's Manufacturing and Supply Chain

🔋 Q: How is Tesla addressing rare earth element concerns in motor production?
A: Tesla's rare earth free motors use 25% less rare earth elements than industry average, positioning them well against China's export controls on 7 rare earth elements, including neodymium.

📊 Q: What insights might Tesla's upcoming earnings call provide?
A: The April 22nd earnings call will likely address supply chain and margin impacts from China's rare earth export controls, battery supply constraints, and tariff effects.

Tesla's Product Updates

📷 Q: What undocumented changes are included in Tesla's AI4 vehicles spring release?
A: The release includes a wider angle rear view, side repeater cameras at the top, and B-pillar dash cam and Sentry mode video recording capabilities.

🛻 Q: How significant is the Cybertruck for Tesla's stock performance?
A: The Cybertruck line is not expected to be a meaningful driver for stock appreciation, even at 250,000 units per year with a 5% net income margin, due to its small relative impact on Tesla's overall growth.

Tesla's Technological Advancements

🚗 Tesla's rare earth free motors for next-gen vehicles could provide 50% cost savings on magnet motor costs, offering a significant competitive advantage.

🧠 Tesla's FSD version 13 on hardware 4 demonstrated exceptional performance with zero unplanned disengagements during 10 hours of challenging driving conditions.

Supply Chain and Manufacturing

🌏 China's rare earth export restrictions may cause short-term disruptions for US companies, affecting not only EVs but also military equipment like fighter jets and submarines.

🔋 Tesla has reduced its use of rare earth elements in permanent magnet motors by 25% since 2017, now using 520g total per motor, which is below industry average.

Business Strategy and Market Impact

📈 Tesla's Cybertruck line is not expected to significantly impact stock price, as even 250,000 annual units at 5% margin would only generate $1 billion in value.

🚀 Tesla's FSD unsupervised rollout will be gradual, with extensive testing using Austin and California data, potentially leading to a major advancement with version 14.

• 00:00 🏡 Home renovations have been chaotic, but updates will resume soon with more engaging videos.
• 00:30 ⚡ China's rare earth export restrictions threaten US EV production, but Tesla's shift to rare earth-free motors may mitigate long-term risks.
  • China's dominance in rare earth element mining and refining poses a significant challenge for EV motor production, despite Tesla's plans to transition to rare earth-free motors.
  • China is imposing export restrictions on rare earth elements, crucial for various industries including EVs, which could disrupt supply for US companies that heavily rely on these imports.
  • Tesla's reduced use of rare earth elements in its motors positions the company favorably for future developments, despite short-term supply chain risks.
• 04:19 ⚡ Elon Musk is optimistic about Tesla's self-driving advancements, noting a shift in user perception towards safety, despite ongoing issues with FSD performance and hardware discrepancies.
  • Elon Musk expresses high confidence in Tesla's full self-driving technology, suggesting significant advancements are imminent, despite skepticism about past predictions and a lack of widespread user experience with the latest version.
  • The shift in perception towards Tesla's self-driving capabilities has transformed users from feeling anxious to feeling safer and more relaxed while driving.
  • FSD version 12 on hardware 3 significantly lags behind version 13 on hardware 4, with ongoing firmware issues being addressed by Tesla.
  • Recent FSD performance is impressive, but issues like potholes and sudden lane changes remain significant concerns.
• 08:42 ⚡ Tesla's AI outperforms traditional systems, but full autonomy by 2025 is doubtful; direct factory deliveries and advanced Full Self-Driving software could enhance customer experience and reduce costs, while growth isn't solely dependent on the Cybertruck.
  • Tesla's AI demonstrates superior awareness and safety compared to traditional driver assistance, but widespread fully autonomous driving by 2025 seems unlikely.
  • Direct deliveries from Tesla factories to customers could enhance marketing, reduce logistics costs, and improve the overall customer experience.
  • Tesla is preparing to roll out an advanced version of its Full Self-Driving software, potentially transforming transportation costs, pending regulatory approval.
  • Tesla's future growth is not heavily reliant on the Cybertruck, as its potential sales impact is relatively small compared to the company's overall advancements in technology and market strategy.
• 12:26 ⚡ Tesla leads the US EV market amid nutrient deficiencies and emphasizes AG1 for health, while sales data requires careful interpretation.
  • Focusing on energy optimization and vitality, the speaker emphasizes the prevalence of nutrient deficiencies due to digestive issues and poor food quality, highlighting the importance of AG1 for maintaining health during busy times.
  • AG1 offers a highly absorbable supplement that improves energy and digestion, with a welcome kit including free travel packs and vitamin D3 K2.
  • Tesla dominates the US EV market with minimal competition, but sales data can be misleading without proper context.
• 15:25 ⚡ Model 3 sales surged 70% year-over-year amid a production ramp-up, while a man faces a 40-year sentence linked to Tesla incidents, and the Bargersville Police saved $500,000 with their Tesla fleet despite mixed sales results in China.
  • Model 3 sales increased 70% year-over-year, but context is crucial as production ramp-up affected previous figures, while overall US full EV sales rose 10.6% in Q1.
  • A man charged with multiple offenses related to Tesla faces a potential 40-year prison sentence, marking the fifth major arrest in connection with these incidents.
  • The Bargersville Police Department has saved nearly $500,000 over five years with their Tesla fleet, reporting no major issues and significant annual savings, while Tesla's China sales show a year-over-year increase despite a quarterly decline.
• 18:45 ⚡ Tesla adapts to economic risks with localized production and affordable models, maintaining stable order flow as it prepares for earnings on April 22nd.
  • Honda is not changing its production plans despite tariffs, Lucid will launch a $50,000 SUV in 2026, and Tesla is focusing on affordable models while adapting to global economic risks through localized production and agile manufacturing.
  • Tesla's order flow remains stable despite potential brand damage, with earnings announced on April 22nd and stock closing at $254.11, up 7%.
• 21:00 🙏 Thank you for your support and patience as I return to regular content creation.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afqUrj1sdeo