Tesla is working on ramping up production of their 4680 batteries, aiming to achieve cost parity with third-party suppliers by the end of the year, despite facing potential delays and supply chain complications
Questions to inspire discussion
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Is Tesla still committed to the 4680 battery ramp?
—Yes, Tesla is still committed to the 4680 ramp, but they have a long way to go to achieve the cost and volume targets from Battery Day.
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Has Tesla increased production of the 4680 battery?
—Yes, 4680 production has increased, with the goal of beating supplier-based costs of Nickel-based cells by the end of the year.
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What advancements has Tesla made in cell technology?
—Tesla has made advancements in cell technology and chemistry to reduce cobalt consumption, increase silicon content, and extend cycle life.
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Is Tesla facing potential delays and supply chain complications?
—Yes, Tesla is facing potential delays with the 4680 ramp and experiencing potential bottlenecks in turning orders into projects for megapacks.
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Is Tesla confident in their ability to keep ahead of the Cybertruck ramp?
—Tesla is confident they can keep ahead of the Cybertruck ramp, with a production rate increase of 18-20% and a focus on assembly lines 3 and 4.
Key Insights
- 🚗 Tesla appears just as committed as ever to the 4680 ramp, but they still have a long way to go to achieve the cost and volume targets from Battery Day.
- 📈 Tesla expects to beat supplier based costs of Nickel based cells by the end of the year.
- 📈 Tesla's production has increased 18-20% over Q4 to 7 GWh/yr, showing significant growth in battery production.
- 💰 Tesla's in-house 4680 cells are expected to be lower in cost than cells from third party suppliers by the end of the year, potentially reaching $90 per kWh at the cell level and $110 per kWh at the pack level.
- 🔋 Advancements in cell technologies and chemistries aim to reduce cobalt consumption, increase silicon content, and extend cycle life.
- 🚗 Other western automakers are regressing by pulling back on their EV plans and retreating to hybrid vehicles, which may keep them afloat for a few years but ultimately the benefits of EVs will win out.
- 🇺🇸 Government incentives like the IRA complicate the demand for cells produced in the U.S. vs. outside the U.S., highlighting the importance of in-house cells for Tesla.
- 📈 Despite reports of failure, Tesla is ramping up the 4680 lines in Austin and aiming to reach cost parity with external battery cells by the end of the year.
#Tesla #4680
XMentions: @Tesla @LimitingThe @HabitatsDigital
Clips
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00:00 🔋 Tesla is committed to the 4680 ramp, but has a long way to go to achieve cost and volume targets, still sourcing cells from other suppliers with no real proof of failure.
- Tesla is still committed to the 4680 ramp, but they have a long way to go to achieve the cost and volume targets from Battery Day.
- Tesla is still sourcing cells from other suppliers, and despite some negative employee sentiment and executive changes, there is no real proof that the 4680 battery is headed for failure.
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02:35 🔋 Tesla has increased 4680 production and retooled for Generation 2 cells, aiming to beat supplier-based costs by year-end, with a production rate increase of 18-20%.
- 4680 production has increased, with the goal of beating supplier-based costs of Nickel-based cells by the end of the year.
- Tesla has retooled their production lines to switch from the Generation 1 4680 cell to the Generation 2 4680 cell, resulting in an increase in production to 7 GWh per year.
- Tesla's production rate increase of 18-20% may be due to focusing on assembly lines 3 and 4, rather than the more mature lines 1 and 2, or improving yield rate, but they are confident they can keep ahead of the Cybertruck ramp.
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05:26 🔋 Tesla's in-house 4680 cells are expected to have lower cost than third party suppliers by the end of the year, but Elon Musk doesn't see it as super important in the near term.
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07:00 🔋 Tesla has enough cell supply for now, but the potential for more 4680 cells is being underestimated, and they have made advancements in cell technology and chemistry to reduce cobalt consumption and increase silicon content.
- Tesla has plenty of cell supply to meet their current needs, but the potential for a greater supply of 4680 cells is being underestimated.
- Tesla could have saved money and increased profits by using the 4680 cells in more vehicles, but they may not be confident in their ability to ramp up production enough to support additional vehicle models.
- Tesla has made advancements in cell technology and chemistry to reduce cobalt consumption, increase silicon content, and extend cycle life, and is now seeing more competitive prices for cells from their suppliers due to declining orders from other automakers.
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10:28 🔋 Tesla's efficiency improvements and oversupply of cell production capacity have boosted profits and competitiveness, with potential collision with lithium supply not expected this decade.
- Tesla's first mover advantage and constant efficiency improvements have put them ahead of other Western automakers in EV production, leading to an oversupply of cell production capacity and lower cell prices, ultimately enhancing Tesla's profits and competitiveness.
- Tesla's growth rate has dipped below 50% for the next few years, so potential collision with lithium supply may not occur this decade.
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12:59 🔋 Tesla's 4680 project has reduced cell costs and given them control over raw materials, but government incentives are causing supply chain complications and uncertainty.
- The 4680 project has had a positive impact on reducing cell costs and giving Tesla greater control over the raw materials supply chain, and the company is positioning itself to hedge against complications with government incentives.
- Government incentives like IRA tax credits are causing market distortions and uncertainty, impacting Tesla's supply chain and production system.
- Tesla may not find it worth it to chase tax credits and should only pursue them when it aligns with their existing plans, such as manufacturing cell components in Germany and shipping them to the U.S. to be assembled to take advantage of tax credits.
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16:32 🔋 Tesla is ramping up 4680 battery production, aiming for cost parity by year-end, and facing delays and potential bottlenecks in megapack projects.
- Despite reports of the 4680 battery failing, Tesla is actually ramping up production, aiming to reach cost parity with external battery cells by the end of the year, and positioning the 4680 cell at the base of their ecosystem.
- Tesla is using extra assembly lines to make up for low battery output, facing delays with the 4680 ramp, and experiencing potential bottlenecks in turning orders into projects for megapacks.
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18:41 🔋 Tesla is continuing to work on expanding their megapack pipeline and project deployment speed despite recent executive layoffs, with support from viewers and subscribers.
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Duration: 0:19:55
Publication Date: 2024-05-01T16:06:18Z
WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e2pe0Kapn30
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