Tesla is shifting its focus from being an EV manufacturer to an AI FSD company, with a strong emphasis on autonomy and neural net training, as well as significant progress in expanding their core AI infrastructure and energy business
Questions to inspire discussion
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What will the live stream cover?
—The live stream will cover the pre-earnings call, analysis of the report, listening in on the actual earnings call, and post-coverage, with multiple channels participating.
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What are investors interested in?
—Investors are interested in Tesla's profitability, margin, FSD, logistics issues, and energy side of the business, and are waiting for guidance on Q2 deliveries and the robo taxi reveal.
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What is Tesla's focus shifting towards?
—Tesla is shifting its focus from being an EV manufacturer to an AI FSD company, with a strong emphasis on autonomy and neural net training, as well as significant progress in expanding their core AI infrastructure and energy business.
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What are potential surprises in the Q1 earnings report?
—Potential surprises include details on the first Robo taxi Fleet and the upbeat outlook for the company's growth trajectory.
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What are the challenges Tesla is facing?
—Tesla is facing challenges with the 4680 battery and Elon Musk believes that regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD is necessary to prevent harm.
Key Insights
Tesla's Shift to AI and FSD Technology
- 📉 "Reframing Tesla from an EV manufacturer of 30% plus margins to being an AI FSD company is the most important part for investors."
- 🚗 Tesla is accelerating the launch of new models ahead of previously communicated start of production in the second half of 2025, resulting in more than 50% growth over the 2023 production.
- 🚗 Elon Musk emphasizes the importance of autonomy, stating that it will become "extremely obvious that it is reckless and dangerous to not enable autonomy."
- 🤖 Tesla has installed and commissioned 35,000 h100 computers for AI training, with plans to increase to 85,000 by the end of the year, making rapid progress in expanding their core AI infrastructure.
- 🚗 "I think if you've got at scale a statistically significant amount of data that shows conclusively that the autonomous car has let's say half the accident rate of a human driven car. I think that's difficult to ignore because at that point the stopping autonomy means killing people."
- 🤖 "The future of AI and self-driving hinges completely on neural net training."
- 🚗 The confidence around FSD was the most confident the team has been around that software, leading people to go try FSD V12 on the existing vehicles.
- 🚗 "The fact that we now have confirmation that your car my car anyone's car can indeed be a robo taxi on the network that confirmation was something that people have been waiting to hear."
- 🤖 "It's gonna be so crazy this humanoid robot. It's just going to get more and more advanced super fast. I mean I'm so excited about that."
Growth and Progress in Tesla's Energy and Production Business
- 🔋 "Our energy business continues to make meaningful progress with margins reaching a record of 24.6%. We expect the energy storage deployments for 2024 to grow at least 75% higher from 2023 and accordingly this business will begin contributing significantly to our overall profitability."
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Clips
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00:00 📈 Tesla's Q1 earnings are expected to be poor, but potential saving graces in energy and FSD revenue, with focus on Elon Musk's demeanor, profitability, FSD, logistics, and transition to an AI FSD company.
- The live stream will cover the pre-earnings call, analysis of the report, listening in on the actual earnings call, and post-coverage, with multiple channels participating.
- The upcoming shareholder meeting is crucial for Tesla, as the Q1 earnings are expected to be poor due to lower delivery numbers, decreased sales in China, and a higher mix of less profitable vehicles, but there may be some saving graces in energy and potential recognition of FSD revenue.
- Elon Musk's demeanor on the earnings call will be crucial for Tesla investors, with expectations for a more positive outlook on the company's future and a focus on AI and tech rather than just a car company.
- Investors are interested in Tesla's profitability, margin, FSD, logistics issues, and energy side of the business, and are waiting for guidance on Q2 deliveries and the robo taxi reveal.
- The speaker discusses the broader economic implications of Tesla's earnings and the potential impact on the stock price.
- Tesla's supply chain is the shortest in the auto industry, they adjusted to pandemic-related issues early, and are transitioning to being an AI FSD company with a focus on full self-driving subscriptions.
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20:55 🚗 Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings report shows better than expected results, with potential surprises including details on the first Robo taxi Fleet and the upbeat outlook for the company's growth trajectory.
- Investors are hopeful for positive news in Tesla's Q1 earnings report, with potential surprises including details on the first Robo taxi Fleet and the upbeat outlook for the company's growth trajectory.
- Elon Musk replied to a post about regulations in Florida for autonomous vehicles, and there may be potential surprises in the Q1 2024 earnings report, including a record quarter for energy and a partnership announcement.
- Tesla is accelerating the launch of new, more affordable vehicle models ahead of schedule, working on ride hailing functionality, and has surpassed 1.3 billion miles of FSD data, with financials in line with expectations.
- Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings report shows better than expected results, with a focus on cost reductions, new vehicle platforms, and potential for increased car sales.
- Tesla is planning to release multiple new vehicles, including a cyber truck, and is also working on a ride-hailing app with autonomous features, but there are concerns about how they will attract enough users to make it functional.
- Tesla is considering advertising through traditional commercials and social media to capitalize on the network effect.
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01:00:19 🚗 Tesla is considering partnerships for their ride-hailing network, planning to launch new affordable vehicle models, and focusing on maximizing production and autonomous cars.
- Tesla is considering a partnership with Uber for their ride-hailing network to avoid becoming a target and to provide better products and services.
- Tesla is considering launching its own ride-hailing app, potentially partnering with other companies, and focusing on maximizing utilization and integration within their ecosystem.
- Tesla is planning to launch new, more affordable vehicle models, possibly including a compact car, with a focus on affordability and cost savings in production.
- Tesla should create a new, cheaper trim for the Model 3 and Model Y, use the unbox model for robo taxis and other vehicle types, and continue to build drivable cars while also focusing on autonomous cars.
- Tesla is expected to maximize production to 3 million vehicles, with a focus on autonomous cars and a potential new, cheaper model, while also signaling the success of the Dojo project.
- Nick provides unique analysis on potential partners for Tesla's robo taxi, speculating on the possibility of Ford and Hummer being involved based on a picture of the supercharger network.
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01:23:19 🚗 Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings call reflects optimism despite challenges with the 4680 battery and regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD, with a focus on autonomy, AI, new vehicle developments, and potential growth.
- Elon Musk discusses the progress of Optimus, a humanoid robot, and its potential impact on economic output, but does not provide specific details about factory tasks or mass production.
- Tesla is facing challenges with the 4680 battery and Elon Musk believes that regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD is necessary to prevent harm.
- Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings report focuses on autonomy and AI, with questions raised about regulatory approval and potential partnerships with Legacy automakers.
- Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings call reflects optimism despite low expectations, with a focus on new vehicle developments and potential for growth.
- Tesla is making moves with the Robo taxi network and the cheaper vehicle, but there are still questions about the timeline and progress on the Cybertruck ramp.
- Tesla's Q1 earnings were around expectations, with negative free cash flow for the first time in a while, but a substantial increase in AI compute power, leading to speculation about progress with Dojo and potential positive impact on stock behavior.
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01:59:15 🚗 Tesla discusses Q1 results, challenges in EV market, success in energy storage, increasing AI training capacity, accelerating new vehicle models, reducing FSD subscription price, facing increased operating expenses and negative cash flow, expecting regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD, and plans for significant advancements in vehicle capabilities.
- Elon Musk discusses Tesla's Q1 results, challenges in the EV market, and the company's success in energy storage deployments.
- Tesla is increasing AI training capacity, accelerating the launch of new vehicle models, and expanding core AI infrastructure, with over 300 billion miles driven with FSD V12 and a reduced subscription price for full self-driving.
- Tesla is excited about their autonomy roadmap and future growth, with improvements in production and cost reduction initiatives, as well as progress in energy storage deployments, but also faced challenges with increased operating expenses and negative free cash flow in the first quarter.
- Tesla expects regulatory approval for unsupervised FSD in the US and other countries, and plans to operate a fleet of millions of cars with a constant feedback loop for training data and potential for distributed inference computing.
- Tesla uses a combination of real-world data, simulations, and feedback loops to continuously improve the safety and quality of their vehicles, with plans for significant advancements in the capabilities of their cars in the near future.
- Scaling loss can occur in model size, data, training compute, and architecture, but by scaling these factors, better performance can be achieved.
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02:24:42 🚗 Tesla is focusing on predicting future performance, accelerating low-cost vehicle launches, ramping up production for the cyber truck and semi, and discussing FSD licensing, while also addressing AI advancements, sales growth, and competition from Chinese competitors.
- Tesla is working on predicting future performance, accelerating the launch of low-cost vehicles, and ramping up production for the cyber truck and semi, while also being in conversations with a major automaker for licensing FSD.
- Elon Musk discusses new Tesla vehicles and his commitment to the company, while also addressing sales growth and competition from Chinese competitors.
- Tesla is not just an auto company, but an AI robotics company, with a focus on autonomy and future AI advancements, and Elon Musk's control over the company is not a concern.
- Tesla is making headcount reductions and reorganizing the company to prepare for future growth, with the goal of becoming stronger and more resilient.
- Tesla is making progress in potential FSD licensing discussions and believes that their approach is the right one, with the goal of making their cars more affordable and accessible while continuing to improve the product.
- Tesla plans to accelerate selling cars in new markets and releasing FSD in additional geographies, including China, with the approval of regulators.
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02:49:51 🚗 Tesla faced supply constraints in Q1 2024 but expects improvement in Q2, plans to utilize idle compute power in vehicles, making progress on 4680 ramp, and considering selling cells to other automakers, while also discussing potential FSD licensing.
- Tesla faced supply constraints in Q1 2024 due to various factors, but they expect Q2 to be better, and they are simplifying the sales process.
- Tesla plans to utilize the idle compute power in their vehicles for various workloads, similar to Amazon web services, and the distributed power and cooling capabilities in the cars make it a cost-effective and efficient option.
- Tesla is making good progress on the 4680 ramp and is not planning to build them unless there is a place to put them, with a focus on internal cell production to address the increase in cost per kilowatt hour from suppliers.
- Tesla is working on reducing powertrain and material costs, utilizing engineering work in new products, and considering selling 4680 cells to other automakers to generate additional revenue.
- Investor relations executive announces departure from Tesla after 7 years, expresses gratitude, and discusses company's shift towards AI and confidence in FSD.
- Elon Musk discussed Tesla's Q1 earnings, highlighting optimism for Q2, plans for cheaper vehicles, potential production timelines, and the possibility of licensing FSD to major automakers.
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03:11:27 🚗 Tesla's Q1 earnings are expected to improve, with potential buybacks to increase Elon Musk's control and the possibility of reincorporating in Texas to issue preferred shares to reach 25% influence, while also focusing on lowering prices, reducing costs, and reorganizing for high-margin software services and AI investments.
- Tesla's Q1 earnings are expected to improve, with potential buybacks to increase Elon Musk's control, and the possibility of reincorporating in Texas to issue preferred shares to reach 25% influence.
- Tesla is leveraging their ability to lower prices and come out with cheaper models while still maintaining profitability due to their ability to get batteries at a much cheaper price, and they are also seeing a significant reduction in per vehicle costs.
- Tesla is planning to start paying off labor and capital in June, and they are making changes to their vehicles and production processes to reduce costs and improve efficiency, with a focus on autonomy and future plans for the company.
- Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings call discussed concerns about the departure of Tesla's IR guy, the potential licensing of FSD to major automakers, the development of a humanoid robot, the security risks faced by Elon Musk, the possibility of cloud computing in Tesla cars, and the potential revenue opportunities from distributed inference compute and Dojo as a service.
- Tesla is reorganizing for the next phase of growth, focusing on high-margin software services and investments in artificial intelligence and capacity, positioning the company as a high-margin SAS company.
- The speaker discusses the positive outlook on Tesla's future, highlighting the company's focus on AI and FSD, new product announcements, and the reassurance of their ability to execute on their plans.
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Duration: 3:45:39
Publication Date: 2024-04-23T20:03:02Z
WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MANup0RAvl0
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