Tesla Autonomy Is AI's Crowning Jewel; Diner Goes World Wide; Japan Trade Deal Announced

XAI and AI Compute Power

🖥️ Q: What is XAI's Colossus supercluster?
A: XAI's Colossus supercluster is a game-changing AI system with 230,000 GPUs (including 30,000 GB200s) for training, and 550,000 GB200s and GB300s coming online soon, providing 20,000 exaflops of compute power.

🚀 Q: How does XAI's AI compute power compare to competitors?
A: XAI aims to achieve 50 million units of H100 equivalent AI compute within 5 years, with 1 million units expected in 5 months, surpassing competitors like Meta, OpenAI, Google, and Amazon.

⚡ Q: What advantages does XAI's proprietary cluster offer?
A: XAI's proprietary clusters, designed specifically for training, are uncatchable by competitors as they can't be bought with money, creating an unbreachable moat in AI development.

Tesla's Autonomy and Robotaxis

🚗 Q: When is Tesla expected to launch unsupervised FSD?
A: Tesla is expected to launch unsupervised FSD in the third quarter after polishing and testing, with version 14 potentially being unsupervised even if not allowed for public use.

🤖 Q: What is the significance of Tesla's upcoming robotaxi launch?
A: Tesla's robotaxi launch is anticipated to be a historic moment, demonstrating that the complexity of autonomous driving technology has been overcome, allowing for leverage and scaling.

💰 Q: How might Tesla monetize its Autonomy feature?
A: Tesla may charge monthly fees of $50-$100 for unsupervised use, including insurance, on top of personal insurance costs.

Market and Economic Outlook

📈 Q: What factors are expected to drive the market higher?
A: The market is expected to continue rising due to easy money from rate cuts, de-risking from tariff removals, and euphoria from AI companies like Nvidia and Meta.

🌐 Q: How might AI impact GDP growth?
A: Many predict GDP growth of 5-7% due to AI advancements and Trump's economic policies, which could support higher market valuations.

💼 Q: How might Tesla's PE ratio change with increased profitability?
A: Tesla's PE ratio is expected to decrease if the company starts generating significant profits, but investors may still be willing to pay a premium for the stock.

AI Industry Trends

🤖 Q: What is the future outlook for LLM providers?
A: LLM providers like XAI, Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, and Microsoft are expected to become commoditized and cheap to use, with mass volume being the primary revenue source.

💻 Q: What is XAI's Grok CLI? 
A: Grok CLI is an open-source AI agent that brings Grok's capabilities to the terminal, built with no LLM frameworks and MIT licensed for hackability.

🏭 Q: Which AI applications are expected to be most profitable?
A: Embodied AI through robotaxis and optimists are expected to be at the leading edge of money generation, with coding applications and videos also being developed.

Market Seasonality and Trends

📅 Q: What is the historical market trend from summer to January?
A: Historically, the market tends to rise from the end of summer to January, while stocks are typically flat to down from January to the end of summer.

💹 Q: How are AI companies performing in the current market?
A: AI companies like Nvidia and Meta are plateauing but still dominating their sectors, while Coinbase and Bitcoin are performing well due to increased money printing.

Tesla's Future Prospects

🚛 Q: What are Tesla's sales expectations for semi-trucks?
A: Tesla expects to sell 50,000 semi-trucks in 18 months, compared to 350,000 more affordable vehicles.

📊 Q: How might Tesla's earnings call affect its stock price?
A: Tesla's earnings call could result in 5-7% stock price swings, with potential 20-20 point price movements based on options market analysis.

International Trade

🇯🇵 Q: What is the impact of the new Japan trade deal?
A: The Japan trade deal announced by Trump includes a 15% tariff on Japanese imports, expected to have a minimal impact on the overall market.

🌍 Q: How is Tesla's Diner concept expanding?
A: Tesla's Diner concept is going worldwide, potentially expanding the company's presence in the food service industry alongside its automotive and energy businesses.

AI Compute and AGI

1. 🖥️ XAI's Colossus supercluster, with 230,000 GPUs including 30,000 GB200s, provides 20,000 exaflops of compute power, potentially leading to AGI or artificial superintelligence.
2. 🚀 Colossus 2 will add 550 GB200s and GB300s, reaching 50 million units of H100 equivalent AI compute within 5 years, with 1 million in 5 months.
3. 🔨 XAI's Colossus is a "sledgehammer" for heavy lifting and brute training, not for everyday inference like cloud providers.
4. 🏰  The Colossus supercluster serves as a "moat" for XAI, allowing them to attract talent and gain unprecedented leverage on complexity.

Tesla's Autonomy and FSD

1. 👑 Tesla's Autonomy is considered AI's "crowning jewel", with FSD as the training ground for proprietary video data.
2. 🤖 Optimus will bring trillions of data sets to train on, enabling faster scaling and more data collection for Tesla.
3. 🚗 The unsupervised FSD version will only be available in areas with deployed robo taxis, requiring connection to a command center.
4. 💰 The cost of unsupervised FSD may include a monthly fee of $50-$100 for insurance and command center connection.

Market and Economic Implications

1. 📈 Tesla's PE ratio may decrease if the company starts generating significant profits from autonomy.
2. 🌐The market is currently "grinding higher" due to factors like rate cuts, easy money, and euphoria.
3. 🏛️The 20-year bond auctions scheduled for tomorrow may significantly impact the market, potentially causing a sell-off.
4. 🇯🇵 The Japan trade deal announced by Trump could lead to increased trade and investment between the two countries.

Tesla's Future and Industry Impact

1. 🚕 Tesla's FSD robo taxi launch is expected to be a historic moment in the company's autonomous driving technology.
2. 🧠 While FSD is not critical for ASI, it's teaching Tesla how to obtain and train on proprietary data.
3. 🚀 Tesla's Autonomy has potential for exponential growth, as the barrier to entry for consumers is essentially none.
4. 💼 Analyst Ryan Brinkman became more inclined to believe in Tesla's Autonomy after experiencing a ride in a Tesla.

Economic Growth and Market Dynamics

1. 📊 The market's PE ratio may need adjustment if GDP starts growing at 5-7% per year, as predicted by some analysts.
2. 💹  Tesla's future growth and the potential 5% GDP growth rate may impact how investors value the stock.

• 00:00 🤖 Elon Musk's Tesla AI, led by xAI, is surging ahead with a massive 230,000 GPU supercluster, outpacing competitors in autonomous driving and AI development.
  • The speaker's conversation was accidentally livestreamed, and they are now joined by Nicholas Gibbs to discuss recent Tesla and AI developments.
  • AI leverage on increasing complexity is becoming less complex, particularly with advancements like Explainable AI (XAI) that simplify stringing together complex clusters.
  • Once the correct architecture for a complex technology like Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) is figured out, scaling and iterating on it becomes significantly less complicated and daunting.
  • Elon Musk reveals Tesla's AI supercluster, Colossus, has 230,000 GPUs operational for training, with a planned upgrade to 550 GB200s and GB300s, giving XAI 20,000 exoflops, significantly surpassing competitors.
  • Elon Musk's xAI has surpassed competitors in AI development, and with his ability to raise capital and attract talent, it seems unlikely that others can catch up.
• 07:08 🤖 Tesla's lead in Full Self-Driving technology and AI advancements, including its massive compute power, gives it a significant edge over competitors in achieving autonomous driving and potentially Artificial General Intelligence.
  • Tesla's lead in Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, with millions of vehicles and global validation, makes it nearly insurmountable for competitors like Google's Waymo.
  • Tesla's autonomy lead, driven by rapid advancements in AI compute, including a projected 50 million units of H100 equivalent within five years, makes it unlikely for competitors to catch up.
  • Grock CLI is an open-source AI agent that brings the power of Grock to the command line interface, allowing users to interact with their computer using text commands.
  • Elon Musk's AI project, Grock, may be a crucial development in achieving Artificial General Intelligence or artificial super intelligence, potentially ahead of competitors, by leveraging massive compute power, including 100% cloud usage for training.
  • Tesla's high-performance computing clusters for autonomy are like an F350 for specialized tasks, whereas its everyday vehicles, like the Model Y, are for routine driving.
  • Tesla uses separate computing systems for training AI models, which require heavy processing power, and running trained models in their cars, which requires less power.
• 16:10 🤖 Tesla's autonomy, driven by AI and robotics, is expected to be a major revenue generator, surpassing other AI applications.
  • Tesla's autonomy, led by robo-taxis and Optimist, will generate significant revenue, with business and coding applications also expected to produce substantial income.
  • When it comes to AI, only three areas will generate significant profits: autonomy, humanoids, and large-scale token consumption.
  • LLMs will not be a significant source of revenue unless integrated into entire company workflows, and even then, it will pale in comparison to robotics, humanoids, and autonomy.
  • Tesla's autonomy lead, based on AI, is not unique and can be replicated by others with sufficient funds, which can lure away top talent and erode its competitive advantage.
  • Tesla's development of proprietary GPUs, like Dojo, and collection of unique data through FSD and Optimus will be crucial in achieving advanced AI, surpassing generic GPUs like Nvidia's.
  • Tesla's autonomy capabilities, driven by specialized GPUs and data centers, will be the key revenue generator, making other AI-related earnings, such as those from large language models, seem insignificant by comparison.
• 22:30 🤖 Tesla's focus shifts to autonomous technology and AI growth, with Full Self-Driving expanding globally and robo-taxis scaling, ahead of its earnings call.
  • Tesla's upcoming earnings call may render current quarterly numbers irrelevant as the focus shifts to the future of autonomous technology, including the scaling of robo-taxis.
  • Tesla's autonomous driving technology, Full Self-Driving (FSD), is rapidly expanding globally, with multiple countries and states ready to implement it, making the company's upcoming earnings call focused on AI and growth rather than numbers.
  • Tesla's unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability is unlikely to be released this year, but a polished version, possibly called version 14, may be available in the third quarter, initially limited to areas with existing robo-taxis.
  • Tesla's autonomous technology will be tested and validated on a large scale when deployed to the public, providing the company with rapid feedback that no other company can match.
  • Even with unsupervised AI, a connection back to a central system, like a home office, will still be necessary.
• 28:57 🚗 Tesla's autonomous vehicles and upcoming products, including a potential diner expansion, drive excitement and potential for exponential growth, with stock prices highly sensitive to Elon Musk's announcements.
  • Tesla's autonomous vehicles will likely require remote human intervention and may be limited to designated zones with existing infrastructure, such as robo-taxi command centers.
  • Tesla may introduce a monthly fee, potentially $50-100, for Full Self-Driving (FSD) users to cover insurance costs when using unsupervised autonomous driving.
  • Tesla's upcoming autonomous product has potential for exponential growth due to low barriers to entry, making it economically efficient for users.
  • Tesla's stock may move 5-7% up or down after Elon Musk's announcement, potentially reaching $350 or $400 if positive, or dropping to $270-$250 if negative, with the main risk being cancellation of affordable vehicles or ZEV credits.
  • The speaker is more confident in Tesla selling 50,000 semi-trucks in 18 months than 350,000 more affordable vehicles.
  • The speaker enthusiastically discusses Tesla's new diner, praising its fun and quirky embodiment of the company's values, and expresses support for its potential expansion to major cities worldwide.
• 42:12 📊 Market expected to continue rising due to AI growth, easy money, and economic factors, with Tesla's autonomy and potential for high GDP growth leading the charge.
  • In-N-Out Burger's simple menu and low prices allow for high average sales of $6-10 million per location, but the speaker criticizes their burger patty size, suggesting it should be half a pound rather than a third.
  • The market's valuation is debated, with some considering it stretched at a 22 PE ratio, while others, like Tom Lee, argue it's reasonable at 16 PE when equal weighted, and may grow into its PE as earnings season concludes.
  • Easy money is returning with rate cuts, increased money supply, and potential tax cuts, which is creating euphoria and de-risking in the markets.
  • The market is expected to continue rising due to positive trends in AI companies, including Tesla, and supportive economic factors such as increased money printing.
  • If GDP grows at 5-7% annually due to AI and economic factors, a high stock price-to-earnings ratio may decrease as growth justifies a higher valuation.
  • Elon Musk seemed in a better mood for the next day's call after a previous lackluster call with disappointing numbers.
• 48:56 🚗 Tesla's advancements in autonomous technology, led by Elon Musk, are expected to drive stock price to potentially reach an all-time high, amid market updates and US bond market issues.
  • Elon Musk seems to be in a good mood and is focused on launching a successful FSD robo taxi, leveraging Tesla's advancements in autonomous technology.
  • Tesla's successful expansion of its autonomous capabilities marks a historic moment that may lead to rapid progress and a potential all-time high stock price.
  • The speaker expects the stock to reach $350 by Friday, citing a 50/50 chance based on historical earnings trade data.
  • The US bond market, specifically 20-year auctions, is experiencing issues with low buyer demand, with yields currently at 4.36%, up 2.4 basis points, after a previous sell-off.
  • The speaker briefly updates on market prices, noting gains in gold, silver, copper, and Bitcoin, with copper and gold at all-time highs and Bitcoin up 3,046 for the day.
  • The speaker remains optimistic about Tesla's earnings report, but fears a potential scrapping of the more affordable vehicle could impact stock prices, presenting a possible buying or selling opportunity.
• 57:06 👋 The host wraps up a conversation with Nicholas Gibbs and teases a upcoming show with Brian White at 7:45 tonight.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJonUMPzKZ8