Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings forecast predicts potential challenges and a potential small loss, but also shows potential for improvement in future quarters
Questions to inspire discussion
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What are the potential challenges for Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings?
—The potential challenges for Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings include the Suez Canal shutdown, Giga Berlin sabotage, and a weak economy in China, leading to significant sequential declines in sales.
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What is the forecasted revenue from energy storage and solar panel sales for Q1 2024?
—The forecasted revenue from energy storage and solar panel sales for Q1 2024 is $1.79 billion, with the mega pack helping to shield against seasonality.
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What is the forecasted non-GAAP EPS for Q1 2024?
—The forecasted non-GAAP EPS for Q1 2024 is about $4, followed by a trough in Q4 2023 and a bounce back in the following years.
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What is the expected impact of Elon Musk's stock compensation plan on Tesla's financials?
—Elon Musk's stock compensation plan is expected to be dilutive, but not paying it would be unfair to shareholders, and the plan is valued at $228.3 billion.
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What is the forecast for Tesla's quarterly megawatt hours deployed?
—Tesla's quarterly megawatt hours deployed reached a record high, and the company's energy division is expected to see brighter days ahead with the construction of a Mega Factory in China.
Key Insights
- 📈 Positive earnings forecast for Tesla in Q1 2024, but possibility of a small loss for the first time in years.
- 🚢 Tesla is forecasted to deliver more than they produce in Q2 of 2024, as all the ships arrive and unload to deliver Teslas to new owners.
- 📈 Total revenues for Q1 of 2024 are forecasted to be just shy of $2 billion, with expectations of better numbers later in the year as Tesla sells more cars over the last three quarters of the year.
- 📉 The situation with Tesla's stock compensation is very unusual and not something typically covered in accounting classes or MBA programs.
- 💰 Tesla would still be profitable even if you were to throw out the regulatory credits, which are now a pretty small dollar amount relative to how much revenue Tesla is earning.
- 📈 The neural Nets and the AI make such great strides this year that it'll happen sooner than everybody thinks and this is the same chart except on a log scale.
- 🌍 Tesla plans to ramp up FSD features first in the US and then across the rest of the world, potentially claiming more deferred revenue.
- 🏭 Brighter days are ahead for Tesla energy with the construction of a Mega Factory in China, leading to increased revenues and gross margin for the Tesla energy Division.
#Tesla #Investment
XMentions: @Tesla @iCannot_Enough
Clips
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00:00 📉 Q1 2024 Tesla earnings forecast predicts potential small loss due to Suez Canal shutdown, Giga Berlin sabotage, weak economy in China, and Shanghai lockdowns impacting sales and production.
- James Stevenson shares his q1 2024 Tesla earnings forecast, predicting a potential small loss for the first time in years.
- Q1 2024 Tesla earnings were negatively impacted by the Suez Canal shutdown, Giga Berlin sabotage, and a weak economy in China, leading to significant sequential declines in sales.
- Q1 2024 Tesla earnings are expected to be lower than Q4 2023 due to seasonal factors and Shanghai lockdowns.
- The speaker uses a PowerPoint with charts instead of uploading them individually to Twitter.
- Q1 2024 Tesla earnings are expected to be down, with lower deliveries and production due to issues with the Suez Canal and rerouting of boats.
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06:46 📉 Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings preview forecasts lower gross margin, decreased automotive sales, and a record high in energy storage, with an anticipated net loss.
- Q2 of 2024 is forecasted for Tesla to deliver more than they produce, with penalties for Q1 due to production problems and low capacity.
- Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings preview forecasts a lower gross margin, decreased automotive sales, and a record high in energy storage.
- Q1 2024 Tesla earnings preview includes forecasted $1.79 billion revenue from energy storage and solar panel sales, with the mega pack helping to shield against seasonality.
- Forecasting just shy of $2 billion for Q1 2024, with total revenues of 20.6 billion, expecting Q1 to be the worst quarter for Tesla, and anticipating high research and development spending.
- Tesla is expected to have higher operating expenses and a negative operating margin in Q1 2024, with an increase in interest income offset by rising interest expenses.
- Tesla is expected to report a net loss before income taxes, with a negative number for income taxes due to a loss, resulting in a Gap net income number of $565 million and a loss of 18 cents per share.
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14:57 🚗 Tesla may have to reverse $2.28 billion worth of expense if shareholder vote fails, with a forecasted break-even non-GAAP earnings number of -2 cents per share for Q1 2024.
- Elon Musk has already earned all of his stock compensation, and if the shareholder vote fails to reinstate it, Tesla may have to reverse $2.28 billion worth of expense.
- The forecast for Q1 2024 Tesla earnings includes a total SGNA expense of 1.34 billion, with 0.1 billion being other SGNA stock compensation and 1.24 billion being non-stock SGNA compensation.
- Tesla employees around the world receive stock options, with a forecasted stock compensation of 482 million for Q1, leading to a break-even non-GAAP earnings number of -2 cents per share.
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18:31 🚗 Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings may be down, but still positive, with potential for improvement in Q4 and beyond, and Q2 deliveries expected to exceed production.
- Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings may be down compared to the previous quarter, but given the circumstances, it's not as bad as it may seem, and the Q1 revenue will be revealed when Tesla reports on Tuesday.
- Tesla's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization are positive, with a forecasted small profit, and a one-time favorability for a tax item in Q4 of 2023.
- The chart shows quarterly and trailing 12-month earnings per delivery, with a potential bottom in Q4 2024 and improvement thereafter due to the exclusion of a one-time tax item.
- Tesla is still profitable even if you were to throw out the regulatory credits, as shown by the charts of inventory production and deliveries.
- The different colored bars represent the beginning inventory, production, deliveries, and ending inventory of vehicles available to be sold during the quarter.
- The speaker expects Q2 deliveries to exceed production, leading to a reduction in ending inventory.
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26:28 🚗 Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings preview shows challenges with revenue and gross margin, potential decrease in automotive gross margin, high regulatory credit totals, and forecasted growth in FSD revenue.
- Q1 2024 Tesla earnings preview indicates fewer cars available for purchase, challenges with revenue and gross margin, and various production and sales issues.
- Q1 2024 Tesla earnings preview shows a potential decrease in automotive gross margin, with a minimal impact from leased vehicles and regulatory credits.
- The forecast for Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings is expected to be unusual, with high regulatory credit totals and a projected non-gaap EPS of about $4, followed by a trough in Q4 2023 and a bounce back in the following years.
- Tesla's earnings growth estimates rely on the increase in FSD take rate and subscription, with potential for a 99% profit margin, and forecasted growth in the next year.
- Tesla's FSD revenue has decreased in Q4 and Q1, but it is expected to ramp up as FSD features are rolled out to more markets worldwide.
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33:06 📈 Tesla's cash flow and stock price are discussed, with skepticism about forecasting free cash flow and a reminder that target prices are for entertainment purposes only.
- The speaker discusses Tesla's cash flow chart, explaining the relationship between operating cash flow, capital spending, and free cash flow, and expresses skepticism about forecasting free cash flow.
- Stevenson indicator update shows a rough few weeks and months for Tesla stock price, with the 52-week low happening at $106 on January 3rd, 2023, and the indicator beginning on March 18th, 2020.
- The speaker emphasizes that the mentioned target price is not trading or financial advice, but for entertainment purposes only.
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35:55 🚗 Tesla's Q1 2024 earnings preview includes a forecasted non-gaap EPS of $3, a record high in quarterly megawatt hours deployed, and the construction of a Mega Factory in China for the energy division.
- Tesla's PE ratio has been in a range of 38 to 55, and operating expenses are forecasted to include CEO stock compensation.
- Tesla missed filing annual shareholders meeting agenda items, delaying Elon's compensation, and the stock compensation plan is valued at $228.3 billion.
- Elon Musk's stock compensation plan will be dilutive, but not paying it would be unfair to shareholders, and the chart shows the expense on Tesla's financials since the plan began in March 2018.
- Tesla's non-gaap EPS is expected to be around $3 for 2024, with a q1 loss but a positive $3 EPS by the end of the year.
- Tesla's quarterly megawatt hours deployed reached a record high, and the company's energy division is expected to see brighter days ahead with the construction of a Mega Factory in China.
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Duration: 0:42:51
Publication Date: 2024-04-24T13:08:42Z
WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZsSaU_RF-dc
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