Tesla is prioritizing the development of Full Self-Driving technology and robo taxis, focusing on AI hardware and real-world AI solutions to generate cash for future investments and potential partnerships with Chinese EV makers
Questions to inspire discussion
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What is Tesla prioritizing in their development?
—Tesla is prioritizing the development of Full Self-Driving technology and robo taxis, focusing on AI hardware and real-world AI solutions to generate cash for future investments and potential partnerships with Chinese EV makers.
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What is the focus of Chinese EV makers?
—Chinese EV makers like BYD are focused on selling cars, while Tesla is prioritizing the development of robo taxis, which they believe will have a higher value in the future.
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What is the potential impact of Tesla's Full Self-Driving system?
—Tesla's rapid progress on version 12 may lead other companies to switch to Tesla's technology, potentially giving Tesla a competitive edge in the market.
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What is the relationship between Tesla and Chinese EV makers?
—Tesla has a friendly relationship with BYD in China, and Chinese EV makers like Xiaomi and others are growing fast and may be potential partners for Tesla's FSD.
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What is the potential future of Tesla's supercharger network?
—Tesla may shift the supercharger network to external partners to focus on more profitable ventures like robo taxis.
Key Insights
Impact of Tesla's FSD and robotaxi on transportation and economy
- 🤖 The value of a robo taxi is significantly higher than that of a regular car, making it a more strategic investment for the future.
- 🚗 Tesla's success in China could significantly impact the reduction of pollution and road deaths, which account for a significant percentage of the country's GDP loss.
- 🚗 Road deaths and accidents cost $700 billion a year, highlighting the urgent need for safer transportation solutions.
- 🤖 Tesla's FSD is designed to make driving 10 times safer, potentially saving billions of dollars.
- 🇨🇳 China may be experiencing labor shortages due to declining population, and freeing up drivers through robot taxis could move them into more productive work.
- 🚗 If Tesla's FSD works at a robot taxi level, China will authorize it the quickest, making it the biggest market for Tesla.
- 🚕 In a robo taxi world, every new Tesla is made for robo taxi use, and existing Teslas can be used as robo taxis by their owners, potentially earning $30,000 a year.
- 🚶♂️ Optimus bot will generate more data walking around than a car will generate driving data.
- 🤖 Tesla's potential to build a fleet of humanoid bots to collect massive amounts of data gives them a massive lead in the industry.
- 📡 Elon Musk envisions the Tesla bot as the next generation phone, with direct communication and AI capabilities, making it 100 times better than the most expensive iPhone.
Chinese companies' advancements in AI technology and adoption of Tesla's innovations
- 🚗 There are at least 10 Chinese companies doing some form of self-driving, with Xang considered the leader for a long time.
- 🚗 Despite previously being considered not that good in terms of software and electronics, BYD has made significant strides in AI technology and is committing $4 billion to implement a new language model system in their cars.
- 🌏 Chinese companies are willing to adopt Tesla's technology and innovate around it, potentially shifting sales away from other companies in the market.
#Tesla #FSD
XMentions: @Tesla @NextBigFuture
Clips
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00:00 🚗 Tesla's FSD and robo taxi development is prioritized over Chinese competitors, with a surge in China but the real profit expected in the US, Canada, and Western Europe.
- The speaker discusses the need for communication and AI in Tesla's FSD, Tesla bot, supercharging, and Chinese competitors.
- Tesla had a surge in China after Elon Musk got permission to sell FSD, but the real profit from robo taxis will be in the US, Canada, and Western Europe.
- Chinese companies are developing self-driving technology, with Xang considered a leader, and the goal is for 80% of driving situations to be handled by their system, but data on the number of cars and Tesla's involvement is incomplete.
- Tesla's Full Self-Driving system can handle basic driving tasks but struggles with complex situations, and Chinese manufacturers face hurdles in developing self-driving technology due to data collection and computing limitations.
- A Hong Kong listed company announced the creation of a GPT 4 class AI system, and BYD has made significant advancements in AI technology for their cars, with a commitment to spend $4 billion and a team of 4,000 people.
- Byd is focused on selling cars, but Tesla is prioritizing the development of robo taxis, which they believe will have a higher value in the future.
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13:39 🚗 China faces restrictions in acquiring chips, Tesla leads in FSD technology, and Chinese EV makers may be potential partners for Tesla's FSD, with China being more welcoming to Elon Musk and Tesla than the American government and auto industry.
- China is facing restrictions in acquiring h100s and A1 100s, leading to a 20-50% higher cost, but the speaker advocates for a friendly foreign policy and collaboration with China.
- China has developed 7 nanometer chips using alternative methods, putting them 50% behind in energy efficiency compared to the Leading Edge 3 nanometer chips.
- Tesla is leading in technology and FSD, with Chinese companies catching up but facing hurdles with inference hardware and manufacturing quality, while Tesla's rapid progress on version 12 may lead other companies to switch to Tesla's technology.
- Tesla has a friendly relationship with BYD in China, and Chinese EV makers like Xiaomi and others are growing fast and may be potential partners for Tesla's FSD.
- China is more welcoming to Elon Musk and Tesla than the American government and auto industry, as they want to make their companies more competitive by using Tesla's technology.
- Competition is seen as a way to force improvement and prepare for global expansion, rather than protecting or coddling.
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25:54 🚗 China's government supports Tesla and is likely to find a solution for Full Self-Driving, while India's restrictions hinder Tesla's growth.
- China is a better market for Tesla than India due to the government's support and lack of roadblocks, while India has taxi mafias and restrictions that hinder the growth of Tesla.
- China is the largest market for electric vehicles, with over half of the world's EVs, and while half of Chinese cars are super cheap, the country is still way ahead in terms of overall EV market.
- China is likely to find a solution for Tesla to succeed with Full Self-Driving, as they want to clean the air and be seen as a technology leader.
- China's economy is innovative and underestimated, with a strong focus on technology and innovation, and Tesla's success in China could help address pollution and road safety issues.
- Road deaths and accidents cost billions of dollars annually, and transitioning to electric vehicles could significantly reduce oil dependence and geopolitical vulnerabilities.
- Engineers in charge of managing the country want to implement Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology to improve safety and save money.
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34:17 🚗 Tesla plans to deploy robot taxis in 100 cities, address labor shortages in China, sell Boring Company tunnels, and focus on AI hardware over unnecessary supercharger stations.
- Tesla is ready to deploy robot taxis in 100 different cities, which will increase transportation efficiency and free up labor for more productive work, addressing potential labor shortages in China.
- Elon Musk plans to sell Boring Company tunnels to China, and if Tesla solves their FSD, they will fully enter the Chinese market and potentially have authorization for robot taxi services.
- Elon Musk has made changes to the charging infrastructure team, but will continue to build and maintain superchargers.
- Tesla is planning to build fewer superchargers in certain areas, such as Florida, where existing superchargers are already adequate.
- Tesla is making a broader decision to focus capex on AI hardware instead of building unnecessary supercharger stations.
- Elon Musk's team may have lost focus and become bloated, leading to odd locations for Tesla FSD deployment.
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40:52 🚗 Investing in superchargers now will pay off in a robo taxi world in 5 years, as Tesla may be pivoting to wireless inductive charging for robotaxis and will need to focus on AI and develop a mega pack solution with solar for large-scale energy generation.
- Investing in superchargers now will pay off in a robo taxi world in 5 years, as the existing network will be beneficial for charging robo taxis at night.
- Tesla may be pivoting to wireless inductive charging for robotaxis, as it can support a large number of vehicles and reduce maintenance issues with bulky cables.
- Inductive charging may have lower efficiency but could be more reliable and less maintenance, potentially making superchargers less relevant in a robo taxi world.
- Tesla's supercharger network is currently adequate, but in some areas, it may be cheaper to charge at a supercharging station than at home due to high utility prices, and Tesla has raised their supercharging prices to 58 cents.
- Tesla will need to focus on AI and develop a mega pack solution with solar for large-scale energy generation to support the future deployment of semi-trucks and other vehicles.
- Tesla may have secured a supply of voltage transformers or are manufacturing their own, as it aligns with their expertise in electronics and power-related products.
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49:37 🚗 Tesla is focused on solving real-world AI and getting Robo taxis running to generate cash for future investments, with a massive need for electricity generation and a forecast of increased energy for data centers by 4X by 2030.
- Tesla will need to supply a massive amount of solar power to solve real-world AI, and there is a forecast that the US will increase energy for data centers by 4X by 2030, with data centers consuming a significant portion of electricity.
- Tesla has a massive need for electricity generation and may deploy solar at a larger scale in the future, but for now, they are focused on solving real-world AI and getting Robo taxis running to generate cash for future investments.
- Data centers are limited in size due to power constraints, with the largest systems unable to draw more than 100 megawatts from the grid before it crashes, leading to the need for infrastructure to be spread across multiple locations.
- China is building new reactors for AI, and Tesla is spending $10 billion per year on AI development to keep pace with real world AI and gp6.
- Tesla's Model is going to need not just energy growth but also data, as Elon Musk stated that regular data will run out this year, and GPT-5 models are using 40 trillion tokens, requiring real world or synthetic data, with the latter being inferior in generating real cases.
- Elon Musk's target for Dojo is energy efficiency, with Dojo 2 and 3 chips being more general and potentially using synthetic data, while also aiming for more compute on less electricity.
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56:29 🤖 Tesla is using real world data and simulations to collect valuable information for their fleet of cars and potential Tesla bots, with the potential for Optimus to be manufactured and sold at a reasonable cost, and the possibility of a more powerful chip being used for increased compute and power.
- Real world data is being used for video and audio, while simulations are being used to generate other data, including human conversation, for solving various science problems.
- The speaker believes that the future plan for Optimus is not to deploy it in factories, but rather to manufacture and sell a large quantity of them at a reasonable cost, potentially through a beta program.
- Optimus, the bot, will be able to have conversations in different languages and generate a lot of real-world data by walking around, more than a car.
- Tesla is generating a massive amount of real data through conversations and the use of humanoid bots, giving them a significant lead in collecting valuable data for their fleet of cars and potential Tesla bots.
- The speaker discusses the ratio between training and inference, and the potential for using a Tesla bot as an inference platform due to its high power capacity.
- The energy consumption for Tesla's Full Self-Driving system is estimated to be around 3 to 500 watts, with the possibility of a more powerful chip being used for increased compute and power.
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01:02:45 🚀 Tesla is focusing on improving communication for their Tesla bot, planning to lease and sell to companies for fleet ownership, potentially shifting the supercharger network to external partners, and considering separating out certain businesses like Tesla energy and superchargers to focus on higher margin ventures like Robo taxi and Tesla bot.
- Tesla is working on improving communication through satellites for their Tesla bot, which will serve as a next generation phone and make money for the user.
- Tesla's long-term vision for bots and Robo taxis is not targeted towards consumer ownership, but rather towards leasing and selling to companies for fleet ownership.
- The supercharger network is expensive to build and maintain, with lower profit margins compared to the potential high value and revenue of Tesla's bot.
- Tesla may shift the supercharger network to external partners to focus on more profitable ventures like robo taxis.
- Tesla may consider separating out certain businesses like Tesla energy and superchargers to avoid potential government intervention and to focus on higher margin businesses like Robo taxi and Tesla bot.
- Tesla's energy and Supercharger businesses may provide some value in growth, but they are not expected to be game-changing in terms of software revenues and margins, and it may make sense for Tesla to potentially spin off its battery manufacturing as its own business.
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Duration: 1:10:35
Publication Date: 2024-05-02T23:26:07Z
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