FSD Safer Than Humans? Cathie Wood Doubles Down

Tesla's Future Outlook

🚗 Cathie Wood predicts a $225,000 Tesla vehicle will boost demand, with robotaxis launching in June and full self-driving surpassing human safety by Q4.

🤖 Larry Goldberg expects Tesla's FSD to exceed human driving safety by Q4, reaching 700,000 miles of AI compute power from the current 10,000 miles.

🏭 The transition to the new Model Y will be complete by mid-year, with Goldberg anticipating strong sales and excellent performance for Tesla in the second half of the decade.

Investment Risks and Valuation

⚠️ "Keyman risk" is Tesla's biggest investment threat, with Elon Musk's absence potentially causing a 70% stock price drop, though the company would still grow significantly over time.

📊 Tesla's valuation is inflated by Wall Street analysts who fail to evaluate the full range of projects, including FSD and Optimus, focusing solely on delivery numbers.

📉 Tesla's current sales are vulnerable due to the macroeconomic downturn, with declines in Europe, US, and China, and a mid-single-digit decrease in China year-over-year.

Company Leadership and Succession

👥 Succession planning is in place at Tesla, with Jared having an explicit plan under lock and key, and the possibility of bringing back former senior people.

🌟 The current management team is considered outstanding, with Strable identified as a potential visionary to replace Elon Musk.

Economic Factors and Market Analysis

📊 Goldman Sachs and other firms have derated Tesla's valuation due to deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, with the company's sales particularly susceptible to recession.

💼 Interest rates have fallen below the Fed target level, and the upcoming unemployment number is expected to be a "shocker".

Product Development and Sales

🚘 Goldberg is less optimistic about the next FSD release having three times compute power, sirens for emergency vehicles, and end destination parking selection.

🛻 He is extremely excited about Tesla meeting Cybertruck delivery dates by mid-year and is less focused on quarterly delivery numbers.

• 00:00 🚗 Cathie Wood is bullish on Tesla's future with rising demand for high-end vehicles and robot taxis, despite some institutions lowering price targets amid delivery concerns.
  • Cathie Wood remains optimistic about Tesla's future, predicting increased demand from a $225,000 vehicle and robot taxis, while several institutional firms have lowered their price targets due to concerns over weak vehicle deliveries.
  • Public opinion is divided on the topic, but significant developments are expected in the first half of the year.
• 02:07 🚗 Tesla's $25,000 vehicle and robo taxi service may enhance demand and provide a safer autonomous driving experience than humans.
  • Tesla's upcoming $25,000 vehicle and the launch of their robo taxi service are expected to drive demand and potentially offer a safer autonomous driving experience than human drivers.
  • Tesla remains secretive about its future developments, making predictions difficult.
• 05:11 🚗 Anticipation grows for Tesla's new Model Y and FSD capabilities, with expectations of surpassing human driving safety by Q4, despite Cathie Wood's skepticism about promised enhancements.
  • A starting price in the low $30,000 range for the new capabilities is anticipated, generating excitement despite uncertainties.
  • The new Model Y is expected to boost Tesla sales by mid-year, with the launch of the robot taxi and full self-driving technology projected to surpass human driving safety by Q4.
  • Confidence in FSD's capabilities is high, with expectations for significant advancements and potential full autonomy by the year's end.
  • Cathy Wood expresses skepticism about the upcoming FSD release's promised enhancements, including three times the compute power and improved emergency vehicle detection.
  • Cathie Wood expresses confidence in the future growth of Tesla and the pace of Full Self-Driving (FSD) releases, despite current market concerns about vehicle deliveries.
• 10:56 🚗 Tesla's FSD technology is gaining traction in China, outpacing competitors amid ongoing safety concerns.
  • Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is gaining positive recognition in China, surpassing competitors and exciting the public, despite previous skepticism.
  • Tesla's successful early release in China surpasses competitors, though concerns about safety remain.
• 12:56 📉 Analysts cut Tesla price targets and Goldman Sachs lowered Q1 delivery estimates due to demand challenges.
  • Analysts have lowered their price targets for a stock, with one reducing it from 490 to 380 and another from 345 to 320, raising questions about the rationale behind previous increases.
  • Goldman Sachs lowered Tesla's Q1 delivery estimate to 375, citing weaker vehicle deliveries and demand challenges, while noting the transition to the new Model Y as a contributing factor.
• 15:02 🚗 Tesla's FSD is advancing towards a robo taxi launch amid market sentiment-driven stock fluctuations and analyst concerns over sales and production challenges.
  • Few Wall Street analysts evaluate Tesla's full product range, leading to inflated valuations based on sentiment rather than a comprehensive assessment of its ventures, including FSD and the humanoid robot.
  • Concerns about Tesla's sales decline and production challenges have led analysts to lower delivery estimates for Q1, indicating potential risks to consensus expectations.
  • Tesla's stock price fluctuations are influenced by market sentiment rather than actual vehicle delivery metrics, and the focus should shift to upcoming vehicle releases.
  • FSD is continuously improving, bringing the robo taxi launch closer each month, despite some oddities in reporting.
• 19:57 ⚠ Keyman risk from Elon Musk's increasing public scrutiny threatens Tesla's investment outlook and could impact sales and margins.
  • Keyman risk related to Elon Musk has increased for Tesla due to rising public hostility and political involvement, adding uncertainty to the investment.
  • Elon Musk's safety risks and keyman dependency significantly impact Tesla's long-term investment outlook and price targets.
  • Elon Musk's involvement is crucial to Tesla's future, and any disruption to his role could significantly impact the company's stock price and operations.
  • Sales and gross margins are expected to decline due to a significant model change and the natural buyer's pullback.
• 24:34 🚗 Despite potential short-term stock drops due to macroeconomic challenges, confidence in Tesla's management and succession plans supports long-term investment optimism.
  • A significant negative event could cause a 70% drop in the stock, but the company, supported by its large workforce, is expected to recover and continue growing over time.
  • Even with a 70% drop, I would still invest in Tesla due to confidence in its current management and potential succession plans.
  • Elon Musk's potential absence could temporarily impact stock prices, but a succession plan is in place, and the speaker remains confident in their investment.
  • Long-term optimism for Tesla remains despite a lowered price target, influenced by deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and upcoming unemployment data.
  • Tesla's stock is vulnerable in a recession, and while its recent downgrade is not surprising, the extent of it raises concerns about the overall market's health.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rLYdL2Cu21A