Why Tesla Stock Will SKYROCKET in June

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Why Tesla Stock Will SKYROCKET in June

Tesla stock is expected to experience significant growth in June due to advancements in autonomy, the launch of the Cybertruck, and new revenue opportunities, despite existing market risks

 

Questions to inspire discussion

Robo-Taxi Launch and Impact

🚗 Q: When is Tesla's robo-taxi service expected to launch?
A: Tesla's robo-taxi service is anticipated to launch in June 2025, initially with remote drivers monitoring each vehicle before transitioning to full autonomy within 15 months.

🎯 Q: What are the key metrics for Tesla's robo-taxi success?
A: Key metrics include no accidents, a minimum of 40 Cybertruck taxis, an obvious path to $1/mile pricing, and reporting of low wait times and other performance metrics by July 2025.

💰 Q: How could the robo-taxi launch affect Tesla's stock price?
A: If robo-taxi metrics are met, Tesla stock could reach $600+ by July 2026, with a 30% probability; without these metrics, it could drop to $150 (10% bear case).

Stock Performance and Investor Sentiment

📈 Q: What is the current base price for Tesla stock?
A: Tesla's stock behavior suggests a bottom around $225, with retail investors anticipating the impact of robo-taxis.

🔄 Q: How is Tesla's stock behaving in relation to the broader market?
A: Tesla's stock is decoupling from the broader market, maintaining a base around $225 due to anticipation of robo-taxi impact.

👥 Q: Who plays a significant role in Tesla's stock movement?
A: Retail investors play a significant role in Tesla's stock movement, potentially driving the price up if optimistic about robo-taxis.

Cybertruck and Fleet Deployment

🚚 Q: How will the Cybertruck taxi fleet impact Tesla's robo-taxi service perception?
A: The Cybertruck taxi fleet will enhance perception of Tesla's robo-taxi service, as its futuristic design will be associated with full autonomy and industry disruption.

🏙️ Q: What is the potential deployment scale for Tesla's taxi fleet in Austin?
A: Tesla could potentially deploy 5,000 Model Ys and 1,000 Cybertrucks in Austin within months, significantly impacting the local transportation market.

Full Self-Driving Technology

🛣️ Q: What safety benchmark must Tesla's FSD technology achieve?
A: Tesla's FSD must achieve no critical disengagements over 700,000 miles to match human driver safety levels.

Optimus Robots and Factory Impact

🤖 Q: How could Optimus robots affect Tesla's operations?
A: Optimus robots could be a game changer for Tesla's factories, potentially reducing costs and increasing margins if they perform useful work at scale.

Regulatory and Economic Factors

📋 Q: What regulatory approvals are crucial for Tesla's robotaxi success?
A: Regulatory approval in major cities like Miami, Austin, Dallas, and LA is crucial, with analysts expecting a 12-15 month timeline post-June 2023.

💼 Q: How do economic factors influence Tesla's stock outlook?
A: Economic factors like recession fears and interest rates could impact Tesla's stock, but potential robotaxi and Optimus success in the next 12-15 months may outweigh these risks.

Investment Strategies

📊 Q: What potential returns could call options on Tesla stock yield?
A: Call options with a 500 strike price expiring in 2027 could yield 600% returns if Tesla's stock reaches $750 by then.

Competition and Market Position

🏆 Q: How does Tesla's position compare to competitors in robotics?
A: While competition in robotics is fierce, Tesla's financial resources and rapid development pace give them an edge over companies like Boston Dynamics.

Future Projections

🔮 Q: What is the long-term stock price projection for Tesla?
A: Investor Herbert Ong suggests a potential 1000% increase in Tesla's stock price by the end of 2026 if the robotaxi program and Optimus robots are successful.

Q: What is the timeline for a commercial robotaxi pilot?
A: There's a 90% chance of a commercial robotaxi pilot by mid-2027.

Launch Strategy

🚀 Q: How should Tesla launch its robo-taxi service for maximum impact?
A: Tesla should launch the robo-taxi service at a low price per mile (e.g., $1/mile), gate access to control demand, and prioritize Tesla owners and employees as initial users.

 

Key Insights

Robo-Taxi and Stock Predictions

  1. 🚗 Tesla stock could reach $600 by July 2026 with a 30% probability if robo-taxi metrics are met, while a bear case of $150 has a 10% chance due to potential delays and FSD disappointments.
  2. 🤖 Tesla's robo-taxi and AGI developments could decouple the stock from market trends, similar to Nvidia's AI chip success, if they prove AI productivity increases by end of 2023.
  3. 🌆 The cyber-taxi's success in Austin, with 500-1000 units deployed by end of 2023, is crucial for igniting investor confidence in Tesla's potential to dominate the robo-taxi market.

FSD and Cyber-Taxi Strategy

  1. 🛣️  Tesla's FSD version 13 requires flawless performance without critical interventions for successful robo-taxi launch, which is unlikely to happen in June or July despite impressive capabilities.
  2. 👨💼 Remote drivers monitoring Tesla's FSD initially may mitigate risks, but the key question remains the ratio of remote drivers to cars (close to 1:1).
  3. 💰 The cyber-taxi's initial price of $1 per mile and unique design could disrupt Uber's market in Austin, with potential to wipe out 90% of Uber's business in the city by September.
  4. 🔒 Tesla's strategy of gating access to the cyber-taxi service for limited users at a low price could maximize demand and positive reviews.

Competition and Challenges

  1. 🤖 Tesla's Optimus robot faces intense competition from Boston Dynamics and Chinese firms, with pressure to deliver or risk being destroyed in the market.
  2. 🏎️ Tesla's FSD technology has no competition until 2028, allowing for more cautious development, while Optimus faces immediate challenges in AI implementation and robotic movements.
  3. 📊 The economics of Tesla's FSD and Optimus offerings are crucial, with a cost-effective FSD solution at 60% profit margin potentially being a game-changer.

Market and Economic Factors

  1. 📉  Tesla's stock is unlikely to rise significantly in a recession or bear market due to its high-risk nature and reliance on robo-taxi and AGI developments.
  2. 💼  Tesla's core business valuation could drop to $150 if affordable models are delayed, China tariffs stop production, and FSD/robo-taxi disappointments occur.
  3. 📈 

    Tesla's stock could rally in a bear market if it can decouple from broader market trends and prove success in robo-taxi and AGI developments.

Technological Advancements

  1. 🧠 Tesla's FSD technology is expected to improve significantly as the company increases its compute power, with advancements tied to compute upgrades.
  2. 🤖 The real challenge for Tesla's robot production is developing seamless, embodied intelligence, advancing at an exponential pace with significant improvements expected by 2026.
  3. 💻 Tracking and calculating the timeline for Tesla's compute upgrades can help anticipate corresponding advancements in FSD capabilities.

Market Strategy and Consumer Perception

  1. 🚕 The cyber-taxi's unique design and lower pricing compared to Uber are crucial for consumer perception and adoption.
  2. 📱 Tesla's approach of limiting initial access to the cyber-taxi service could showcase its advantages over Uber and boost positive reviews.

 

#Tesla

XMentions: @Tesla @HabitatsDigital @HerbertOng @JOBhakdi @FutureAza @TeslaBoomerMama @TeslaLarry

Clips

  • 00:00 🚀 Tesla stock is poised to potentially skyrocket in June due to key updates on autonomy and the Cybertruck, despite significant risks that could lead to a sharp decline.
    • Tesla stock is projected to skyrocket in June due to high probabilities of achieving key green metrics, despite potential risks that could lower its value significantly.
    • Tesla's upcoming June event is expected to provide substantial updates and metrics on the robo taxi launch, contrasting with the less informative previous event.
    • Tesla stock could surge in June if the company successfully achieves autonomy, but uncertainties and potential disappointments remain regarding timelines and execution.
    • Tesla's stock could surge in June if the Cybertruck launches successfully without issues and demonstrates strong metrics, including cost per mile and production efficiency.
    • Tesla stock could soar to $500-$600 in July with a 30% probability, but there's a 70% chance it could drop to $150 due to potential risks.
    • There is a 90% chance that Tesla's stock will significantly rise above $600 within the next 15 months, driven by the successful rollout of robo-taxi technology and favorable market conditions.
  • 10:34 🚀 Tesla stock is set to skyrocket in June as market conditions stabilize, driven by new revenue streams and the gradual rollout of innovative services despite economic uncertainties.
    • The Trump team is perceived as competent, with significant behind-the-scenes movements indicating a strengthening US-EU relationship and increasing pressure on China.
    • By June, market conditions are expected to stabilize with reduced tariffs and diminished panic, leading to a more optimistic outlook for Tesla stock.
    • There are varying opinions on the likelihood of a recession, with some suggesting we may already be in one that will be short-lived.
    • Tesla's growth potential is hindered by economic conditions, and while robo-taxis represent a significant innovation, their impact will be gradual rather than immediate.
    • Tesla's stock is expected to rise significantly over the next 15 months due to the gradual rollout of its robo-taxi service and advancements with Optimus.
    • Tesla stock is poised to rise due to its decoupling from market trends and strong anticipation of new revenue streams, despite a potential bear market.
  • 17:28 🚀 Analysts predict Tesla stock will soar in June due to upcoming announcements on Cybertruck production and a shift in institutional outlook, despite ongoing concerns about technology and market volatility.
    • Robo-taxi developments are prompting analysts to invest in Tesla earlier than usual, anticipating significant growth before full proof is established.
    • Tesla could announce significant progress on Cybertruck production and new city contracts in July, potentially boosting stock value.
    • Tesla stock could surge in June as institutional analysts may shift their negative outlook, similar to Nvidia's gradual recognition of its AI potential.
    • Tesla's dominance in the robo-taxi market is projected for 2040, but the significant influence of retail investors raises concerns about stock volatility and future growth.
    • Concerns about Tesla's technology persist, as current versions require significant improvements to ensure safety and reliability before launch.
    • Tesla's version 13 is ready for robo-taxi deployment, initially using human drivers before transitioning to remote drivers monitoring each vehicle.
  • 23:15 🚀 Tesla stock is poised to skyrocket in June due to advancements in autonomy, the launch of a competitive robo-taxi service, and the upcoming version 14 enhancements.
    • The ratio of something being discussed is uncertain and could range from one to one to one to three.
    • Tesla is likely to achieve significant advancements in autonomy within the next 15 months, potentially leading to a major breakthrough in their robo-taxi initiative.
    • Tesla's hardware for the Model 3 is performing flawlessly, indicating strong potential for the company's future success.
    • Tesla's upcoming version 14, featuring unsupervised FSA, is expected to significantly enhance their vehicles and could lead to a major stock surge in June.
    • Tesla stock is expected to skyrocket in June due to the potential success of Cyber Caps, which could significantly disrupt the ride-sharing market.
    • Tesla's robo taxi service is expected to launch with a low price strategy to control demand and create a positive brand image, potentially undercutting competitors like Uber.
  • 32:12 🚀 Tesla is on the brink of a major breakthrough in autonomous driving and market expansion, with a high chance of success that could significantly boost its stock value by mid-2024.
    • Tesla is poised for a significant breakthrough in the next 15 months, with a 90% chance of success, marking a pivotal moment in the disruption of transportation.
    • A significant market opportunity for Tesla is approaching, with potential advancements in autonomous driving expected in Austin by next year, but widespread deployment of robo-taxis may not occur until the second half of 2024.
    • Tesla's potential launch of cyber cabs could significantly enhance its market perception and drive demand, even with limited initial production.
    • If Tesla significantly impacts Uber's market in Austin, it could lead to a rapid increase in Tesla's stock value.
    • The Model Y's conventional appearance makes its robo-taxi capabilities less recognizable compared to the more futuristic Cybertruck, which would attract more attention and association with advanced technology.
    • Tesla needs to achieve critical milestones by year-end to maintain investor confidence, but delays are possible and should be factored into investment decisions.
  • 39:11 🚀 Tesla's stock is poised to skyrocket by mid-2026 due to upcoming metrics, gradual robo-taxi deployment, and the need for rapid innovation in robotics.
    • Tesla's upcoming metrics report in July could reveal significant advantages over competitors like Uber, potentially driving stock prices up.
    • Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is unlikely to meet expectations this year due to high risks and lack of competition, while optimism around other projects remains high.
    • Robo-taxi deployment is expected to gradually increase, with significant growth anticipated by the end of the year, potentially leading to a surge in Tesla stock.
    • Tesla stock is expected to rise significantly by mid-2026 due to factors like competition and advancements in technology, rather than just the robo-taxi program.
    • Tesla faces significant competition in robotics, particularly with Optimus, and must innovate quickly to maintain its lead.
    • Tesla is likely to launch a thousand robots by the end of the year, even if they are not fully scalable, to accelerate learning and production.
  • 46:52 🚀 Tesla's strong market position and minimal regulatory risks suggest its stock could double or triple in the next 15 months, making strategic options investments potentially lucrative.
    • Silence from competitors indicates confidence and strength, suggesting Tesla's market position is strong and poised for growth.
    • Tesla's stock is expected to potentially double or triple in the next 15 months, with a 90% probability.
    • Investing in Tesla options with a 2027 strike price could yield significant returns if the stock rises, despite the inherent risks involved.
    • Buying 500 strike call options for Tesla at $20, expiring in 15 months, could be a strategic move if the stock price stabilizes around $750 by the end of 2026, despite market uncertainties.
    • Regulatory risks for Tesla are minimal as major cities will drive adoption despite potential political resistance, creating competitive pressure for swift action.
  • 52:23 🚀 Tesla is set for significant growth in June and beyond, driven by advancements in technology, increased demand for autonomous ride-hailing, and expected resolutions to supply chain challenges.
    • Ten U.S. states have approved autonomous ride-hailing programs, leading to increased demand for Tesla's fleet, which may face manufacturing constraints despite technological advancements.
    • Belief in Tesla's potential hinges on real-world performance, with significant economic benefits driving competition among states for advancements in robo trucking.
    • Tesla's strong economic potential, driven by low-cost energy systems and advancements in compute power, positions it for significant market dominance within months.
    • Starting with limited operations in grid cities can help manage supply constraints and improve navigation for new vehicle launches.
    • Tesla is poised for significant growth in June due to advancements in technology and production capabilities, despite challenges like high tariffs and supply chain disruptions.
    • Tesla stock is expected to rise significantly in the next 12 to 15 months due to anticipated resolutions of major challenges and growing retail interest.

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Duration: 1:0:35

Publication Date: 2025-04-20T14:25:29Z

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1OxHX3zi9vQ

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