BREAKING TESLA NEWS: Austin Robotaxi Spotted

Robotaxi Rollout and Market Impact

🚗 Q: What's significant about Tesla's robotaxi rollout in Austin?
A: It marks a new chapter in Tesla's thesis, expanding the total addressable market to a more affordable segment of working-class people who cannot afford car ownership.

💰 Q: How will Tesla's robotaxi affect transportation costs for the working poor?
A: It will offer a low capital cost option that is 50% or more cheaper than traditional ride shares, breaking the vicious cycle of inefficient transportation costs.

📈 Q: What impact will robotaxis have on transportation demand?
A: They will significantly increase demand for transportation from working-class people by offering a more affordable option.

Robotaxi Network Development

🔄 Q: When does Tesla plan to achieve unsupervised FSD for robotaxis?
A: Tesla aims to have unsupervised FSD by 2026, making robotaxis safer, more efficient, and more convenient than traditional ride-hailing services.

🌐 Q: How extensive will Tesla's robotaxi network be by 2026?
A: It's projected to have 500,000 vehicles in Texas alone and millions across the US, thanks to lower prices and increased demand.

📱 Q: How will customers interact with Tesla's robotaxi network?
A: By 2026, it will be fully integrated with the Tesla ecosystem, allowing customers to order and pay for rides through the Tesla app and track their robotaxis in real-time.

Market and Financial Implications

📊 Q: What are Tesla's expected Q2 deliveries?
A: Tesla expects deliveries of 360-370,000 units in Q2, which is considered weak given the refreshed Model Y's appeal.

💹 Q: How is the stock market valuing Tesla's autonomy efforts?
A: The market is already giving some credit for autonomy, with the potential for an FSD deal causing a meaningful uptick in FSD take rates in Q3 or Q4.

🔬 Q: What does Tesla need to do to justify its valuation?
A: Tesla needs to execute along the AI path to deserve credit for upward steps in valuation.

Competitors and Industry Developments

🤖 Q: How could the US Postal Service benefit from Figure's package sorting robot?
A: It could use the robot to sort packages on high-speed conveyance systems, putting labels face down for scanning, which is economically useful work.

🚕 Q: What challenges do Uber and Wave face with autonomous rides in London?
A: The all-in cost per mile is crucial for competing with Tesla's $25,000 robotaxis at scale, and if their vehicles cost $120-$150,000 each, they may not be competitive.

💼 Q: What insight did the BG2 pod investment firm have about Waymo cars?
A: They recognized that Waymo cars are essentially hand-built and not scalable, with the first 150,000 miles costing $1 per mile in depreciation.

Future of Transportation

🔮 Q: How will robotaxis impact personal car ownership?
A: They will lead to a massive shift, with many opting for robotaxis instead of owning personal vehicles.

💲 Q: What price point is Tesla targeting for robotaxi rides?
A: Tesla is aiming for prices as low as $2 per mile, making robotaxis a viable alternative to car ownership for many.

🔋 Q: How will Tesla's robotaxi network scale?
A: It will be fully scalable by 2026, with the potential for a 20x increase in demand with a $1/mile price drop.

Robotaxi Revolution

🚗 Tesla's robo taxi rollout in Austin marks a new chapter, expanding the total addressable market to working-class people who can't afford car ownership.

🚕 Robotaxis could undercut ride-sharing costs by 50%+, significantly increasing transportation demand from working-class people.

💰 Pricing robotaxi rides at 50-60 cents per mile could increase demand 20x, potentially reaching 600 billion miles per year.

🏙️ Robotaxis could 10x the scale in Texas, a high-population, must-drive location, making it a society-changing technology.

FSD Technology Advancements

🧠 Tesla's FSD software is 4x more advanced than previous versions, with significantly more parameters.

🌟 Tesla's FSD is polished enough for deployment in Austin despite still being in the alpha stage.

🤝 A FSD licensing deal with automakers like GM and Ford is likely inevitable by end of next year.

🔓 Unsupervised FSD is a game-changer but poses liability challenges if offered for free.

Market Impact and Predictions

📈 According to Elon Musk, autonomous cars will be very common worldwide in 2-3 years.

🎓 Robotaxis could replace car ownership, especially in college towns and among middle and working-class individuals.

💼 Automotive CEOs will likely try out Tesla's robotaxi in Austin, potentially leading to licensing agreements.

📊 Robo taxi revenue will have a meaningful impact on Tesla's income statement in the second half of 2025.

Tesla's Business Outlook

📉 Tesla's Q2 delivery expectations are low (under 350,000 units) despite refreshed Model Y and improved quality.

💡 The stock market is forward-looking and already giving partial credit for autonomy and FSD potential.

🔬 Tesla needs to execute along the AI path to justify its current valuation and potential upward movement.

AI and Robotics Progress

🤖 Figure AI's 1-hour video of package sorting by robot demonstrates economically useful work comparable to human quality.

🔄 Tesla could scale up robotaxi operations quickly by distributing charging, cleaning, and processing responsibilities to customers.

🔮 The pace of rollout for unsupervised FSD and hundreds of thousands of robotaxis next year seems too good to be true.

• 00:00 🚗 Tesla starts operating robotaxis on public streets in Austin, with paid rides expected soon, amid stock rally.
  • Tesla's stock has rallied, with a robotaxi spotted in Austin, and despite a 6% drop over the past 5 days, it feels like a victory with a $50 gain from recent lows.
  • Tesla has started operating robotaxis on public streets in Austin, with paid rides expected to begin this week or month.
  • Elon Musk states that all Teslas coming out of factories are capable of unsupervised self-driving and a new software version, which will merge with the main branch soon, is being used in robotaxis.
  • Tesla's Austin robotaxi deployment suggests that the full version is not still in alpha testing, but rather a more polished version.
• 04:20 🚗 Tesla spotted testing Robotaxi in Austin, marking significant progress in autonomous driving with potential to disrupt ride-sharing and expand its market.
  • Tesla's upcoming FSD update may bring a 3x increase in parameter size, addressing current issues like wrong exits, wrong-side driving, and red light infractions.
  • Tesla's rollout of Robotaxi in Austin indicates significant progress in autonomous driving, with data suggesting it's as safe as a human, contrary to skeptics' claims of a low success rate.
  • Tesla's robotaxi expands the total addressable market in the US to a more affordable and underserved segment, specifically targeting working-class people who rely on ride-sharing services.
  • Many Uber users are stuck in a vicious cycle of using the service due to financial constraints, paying more per mile than car owners, and a potential robotaxi service could significantly increase demand for transportation from these users by undercutting costs by 50% or more.
  • Tesla's robotaxi service will likely appeal to demographics that don't want to own cars, such as young professionals and families with kids, and could drastically change society as it rolls out.
  • Tesla is expected to announce a licensing deal with an automaker for its Full Self-Driving hardware by the end of the year.
• 13:30 🚗 Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology is expected to be licensed to other automakers, with robotaxi and unsupervised autonomy features likely becoming a must-have, changing the autonomous driving landscape.
  • The speaker apologizes for a brief, informal, and imperfect start to the video.
  • Many in the automotive industry have had unrealistic expectations about easily replicating Tesla's autonomous technology, such as by outsourcing it from companies like Nvidia, rather than investing in their own AI teams and infrastructure.
  • Analysts believe Tesla will secure licensing deals for its Full Self-Driving technology with other automakers, potentially as early as this year, but likely by next year, as it becomes clear that developing their own autonomous solutions would be more expensive.
  • Tesla's advanced autonomous driving features, particularly unsupervised autonomy, will likely become a must-have feature, making it increasingly probable that competitors will be forced to license the technology within the next year.
  • Tesla's unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) for regular customers and robotaxis may be unlikely this year, with the possibility of customers having to accept liability or purchase special insurance.
  • Tesla likely requires users to pay for its insurance to cover liability for unsupervised robotaxi use, which may become available by the end of the year.
• 26:42 🚗 Tesla's robotaxi service is expanding, with a possible 5,000+ robotaxis in Austin next year and potential to rival Uber with cheaper, faster rides.
  • Tesla could have 5,000 or more robotaxis operating in Austin next year, but would likely need to significantly scale its workforce to handle charging and maintenance.
  • The speaker, a self-described proud capitalist, acknowledges challenges in rapidly rolling out products, motivated by greed and a desire to retain economic benefits.
  • Tesla scaling its robotaxi service to 1 million by next year is extremely difficult, and distributing responsibility to individual owners may be a more optimal and cost-effective way to scale.
  • Estimating 200,000 robotaxis by next year is significant, representing half of the 400,000 needed to match Uber's annual mileage.
  • Tesla's robotaxi service in Austin could offer rides at $2/mile with 2-3 minute wait times, potentially being a superior and cheaper alternative to Uber, with potential for large-scale expansion of up to 500,000 robotaxis in Texas.
  • A Tesla with a possible Robotaxi badge was spotted on the road, sparking interest in whether it was driver-operated or autonomous.
• 33:53 🚗 Tesla spotted testing robotaxi in Austin, targeting college towns and commuters with potential $1/mile pricing, which could disrupt ride-hailing market and boost demand 20x.
  • Tesla can disrupt the ride-hailing market by offering a lower price point, potentially $1 per mile or less, which could increase demand 20x and make a large fleet of vehicles profitable.
  • Tesla is targeting college towns and middle/working-class commuters for its robotaxi service, which could be a game-changer for the company and society.
  • The speaker's decision to skip selling covered calls due to unfavorable risk-reward led to a 10x increase in their value, marking another successful avoidance of potential losses.
  • Tesla's stock sentiment is highly volatile with weak fundamentals, including potentially poor Q2 delivery numbers, amidst a backdrop of political noise and customer hesitation.
  • Tesla's weak fundamentals may improve with potential robo-taxi revenue impact in the second half of next year, but the market is already giving partial credit for autonomy.
  • The speaker gives an A grade for something described as "pretty good".
• 43:37 🚗 Tesla's quarterly deliveries are expected to be low, and a Model Y lease is available for $3.99/month with 3 months of FSD included.
  • Tesla bulls have tempered expectations for quarterly deliveries, with most expecting under 350,000 and few expecting over 400,000.
  • The speaker discusses potential stock movement based on low expectations for Tesla's earnings and invites viewers to check out their live show on rebellionaire.com.
  • A Tesla Model Y lease can be had for $3.99/month with 15% down and 3 months of Full Self-Driving (FSD) included.
  • Tesla cars offer superior quality at a relatively low price compared to luxury brands like BMW, Mercedes, and Audi.
  • The new refreshed Model Y, also known as the Juniper upgrade, is only available as a five-seater, prompting the speaker to upgrade to a Model X in February due to needing the latest hardware for FSD testing.
  • Tesla may be releasing an extended length Model Y, which would provide more space for seven passengers and their gear, potentially addressing the cramped seating issue in the current seven-seater model.
• 50:59 🤖 Tesla and competitors like Uber and Waymo are making progress in autonomous technology, with a focus on economically useful work and competitive pricing.
  • The speaker, previously critical of Figure AI, was impressed by their recent one-hour video showcasing a robot sorting packages, seemingly addressing his concerns about cherry-picked footage.
  • The process shown is an automated package sorting system that uses customized boxes and ramps to orient packages for scanning and high-speed conveyance.
  • The gold standard for autonomous companies like Tesla is demonstrating a robot doing economically useful work, such as a job that can be charged for, for multiple hours at a quality level comparable to a human.
  • Automating mundane tasks with robots or AI systems, although uneventful, holds huge economic utility and is where massive amounts of money will be made.
  • Uber and Wave will offer autonomous car rides in London next spring with no human safety driver, but the all-in cost per mile needs to be competitive with Tesla's pricing.
  • Tesla's ability to produce vehicles at a low cost, around $25,000, will make it hard for competitors like Waymo to compete at scale with their expensive vehicles, costing around $120-150,000 per unit.
• 59:56 🚗 Tesla's robotaxi spotted in Austin, boosting retail investor confidence and stabilizing stock price amid institutional selling.
  • The speakers are excited about Tesla's robotaxi rollout in Austin, Texas, and believe retail investors' confidence in the company helped stabilize the stock price despite institutional selling.
  • No information about Tesla or a robotaxi was discussed, instead the speaker ended a conversation about covered calls and volatility.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7q-GlvsX-IA