Tesla’s Robotaxi Playbook EXPOSED

Tesla's Robotaxi Service

🚗 Q: What are the initial pricing details for Tesla's robotaxi service in California?
A: Tesla's robotaxi service is launching with a $1 base fare and $1 per mile, with supervised drivers initially.

🌆 Q: How is Tesla expanding its robotaxi service across the US?
A: Tesla is hiring autopilot vehicle operators in multiple cities, from New York to Texas to Florida, to rapidly expand its robotaxi service.

📊 Q: How does Tesla's robotaxi service compare to traditional ride-hailing services?
A: Tesla's robotaxi service operates under its own TCP (Tourist Carrier Permit) network, with meaningfully lower underlying unit economics than existing services.

💰 Q: What are the estimated revenue and profit margins for Tesla's robotaxi service?
A: Estimates suggest $48,000 revenue and a 36% profit margin per vehicle per year, with vehicles currently utilized 30% of the time in San Francisco.

🔄 Q: What is the transition plan for Tesla's robotaxi service?
A: The service will start as ride-hailing with supervised drivers, then transition to unsupervised robotaxis as the safety monitor is removed.

Tesla's Strategic Moves

🏭 Q: What is the significance of Tesla's AI6 deal with Samsung?
A: The deal allows Tesla to design computers with tremendous autonomy over the factory, enabling better part yields, lower process times, and reduced costs.

🔬 Q: How will the Samsung deal benefit Tesla in the long term?
A: It's a strategic move that will become a big deal in the future, demonstrating how far ahead Elon Musk and his teams are planning.

💼 Q: What is unique about Elon Musk's compensation package?
A: It's tied to Tesla reaching a $20 trillion market cap, potentially granting Musk 25% voting control and $1 billion in annual compensation.

Tesla's Production Plans

🚙 Q: When is Tesla's robotaxi production expected to start?
A: Robotaxi production is set to begin in the first half of 2024, with volume production in the first half of 2025.

🔧 Q: What are Tesla's plans for CyberCab production?
A: CyberCabs will launch in 2024 with initial handfuls of vehicles in California and Austin.

🛒 Q: Will CyberCabs be available for public purchase?
A: Original prototypes may be available for public purchase, but mass-produced vehicles will prioritize robotaxi use for the next year or two.

Tesla's Robotaxi Service

🚗 Tesla's robotaxi service is launching in California with supervised drivers, offering rides at $1 base fare and $1 per mile, potentially disrupting Uber, Lyft, and Whim.

🌎 The service aims to cover half of the US population by year-end, expanding to cities like New York, Texas, and Florida.

🏛️ Tesla's robotaxi operates under its own TCP (Tourist Carrier Permit) network, directly regulated by the legislature, unlike Uber's ride-hailing service.

📈 Despite not being at scale yet, Tesla's robotaxi service already offers lower prices than existing ride-hailing services, suggesting superior unit economics.

Financial Projections and Impact

💰 Estimates suggest Tesla's robotaxis could generate $48,000 in revenue and $17,000 in profit per vehicle annually if utilized 30% of the time at $1 per mile.

📉 Tesla's robotaxi service is expected to disrupt the ride-hailing industry, posing significant challenges for competitors like Uber and Lyft.

🚀 The service will launch with 50 cars in California, aiming to reach 50,000 miles in 10 days before expanding to other cities.

Expansion and Technology

🌐 Tesla plans to launch the robotaxi service nationwide with supervised drivers in months, not years, leveraging its fleet of 300,000 available cars.

🔧 Each vehicle will require technical checks, including tire tread and insurance verifications, before entering the robotaxi network.

🏢 Tesla will utilize its service centers and vehicle delivery centers as home bases for safety monitors and vehicle maintenance.

Strategic Partnerships and Supply Chain

🤝 Tesla's AI6 deal with Samsung is a strategic move to design computers and gain autonomy over chip production, benefiting future products like Optimus bots and Dojo training infrastructure.

⚡ The Samsung deal provides redundancy and tremendous value to Tesla, securing sole production of all chips for the next year.

🔗 Tesla's supply chain team, led by K Spear, focuses on long-term strategic deals for raw materials and battery components.

Corporate Governance and Financial Considerations

📊 Tesla's XAI proposal will be voted on at the November shareholder meeting, with proxies sent out in September.

🔋 Battery supply remains a risk for Tesla in the next 3 months, despite plans for LG's China factory to produce 50 GW of batteries in the future.

💼 Tesla's new compensation package and the approval of the old one by Delaware are governance issues that could impact stock price in the next 6 months.

Future Plans and Challenges

🚕 Tesla plans to build CyberCabs in volume production by the first half of 2026, initially focusing on robotaxis for the next year or two.

💡 The company's shift towards becoming an AI company is evident in the development of AI data centers like Colossus 2 and Cortex 2.

🏭 Tesla's existing factories have sufficient capacity for expansion, making new gigafactories unnecessary in the near term.

🔬 The company faces significant financial needs for R&D, capex, and XAI investment, potentially causing tension between Elon's vision and financial realities.

• 00:00 🚗 Tesla is launching a low-cost robotaxi service, likely called "Whimo", with dynamic pricing to disrupt Uber and Lyft, aiming to cover half of the US population by year's end.
  • Tesla is launching its robo-taxi service across the US, starting with California, with a low pricing strategy of $1 per mile that could disrupt Uber, Lyft, and other ride-hailing services.
  • Tesla's approach to rapidly scaling its robotaxi service, possibly starting in the Bay Area, seems validated by data showing strong vehicle performance and low intervention rates.
  • Tesla's robotaxi service, likely called "Whimo", is expanding to new areas, including Bay Area, Austin, and others, with dynamic pricing that is significantly cheaper than Uber, and is hiring vehicle operators with autopilot capabilities.
  • Tesla's rapid expansion of its robotaxi service to cover half of the US population by the end of the year, possibly starting in cities with safety drivers, is a bold move that may prove successful given the company's prudent approach and good track record so far.
  • Tesla's initial ride-hailing service with a driver in the car is a necessary step to collect 50,000 miles of data, allowing them to advance to the next stage and eventually launch a true robotaxi service.
  • Tesla has already successfully implemented its technology in three cities in California, indicating it can expand to any city.
• 09:04 🚗 Tesla is launching a low-cost robotaxi service, potentially disrupting the industry with $1 per mile pricing, and giving it an advantage over competitors like Uber and Lyft.
  • Tesla's robo-taxi service, despite not being at scale with only a few dozen vehicles, is launching with surprisingly low pricing, suggesting a significantly lower underlying cost structure compared to existing services.
  • Tesla's robotaxi service will likely start with a low cost, potentially $1 per mile during the day and $2 per mile at night, and could disrupt the industry by forcing competitors to lower their prices.
  • Tesla estimates that a robotaxi utilized 30% of the time could generate $17,000 in profit per vehicle per year at a $1 per mile rate, with potential costs as low as 25-30 cents per mile.
  • Tesla's robotaxi service will likely gain an advantage over competitors like Uber and Lyft as it can sustain losses and reach break-even faster, while its competitors may struggle to do so due to low profit margins.
  • Tesla is likely to launch its robotaxi service in California with a small fleet of around 20-100 cars, growing rapidly to 50,000 miles with expanded fleet, while winning the margin war but possibly not the quantity of cars on the road war.
  • Tesla will likely launch a ride-hailing service very soon, possibly within months.
• 21:21 🚗 Tesla plans to launch a nationwide robotaxi network, starting with supervised drivers in California and other cities, before transitioning to autonomous vehicles.
  • Tesla has a significant advantage in launching a nationwide robotaxi network due to its existing footprint of service centers, delivery centers, and parts network, as well as its large number of available and equipped cars.
  • Tesla's robotaxi service requires validation, technical checks, and insurance clarification before allowing personal vehicles to join the network, and regulatory issues prevent owners from using their own cars as ride-hailing vehicles without a TCP license.
  • Tesla can leverage its driving data to recruit and qualify drivers for its robotaxi service, potentially launching nationwide with a driver in each car, and later transitioning to autonomous vehicles.
  • Tesla aims to drop supervised drivers in its robo-taxi service, with a possible timeline of this year for California and sooner rather than later for Austin, based on data and vehicle deployment.
  • Tesla's robotaxi fleet expansion can be gauged by the number of vehicles deployed, but some aspects like tire usage still rely on manual checks due to variability in driver behavior.
  • Tesla likely plans to roll out Robotaxi by first introducing ride-hailing services with supervised drivers in California and other cities, then removing the supervisors to boost the stock.
• 31:35 🚗 Tesla's stock is poised for long-term growth with potential catalysts including robotaxi rollout, new vehicle announcements, and governance changes.
  • The speaker believes Tesla's stock may be overshadowed by other tech giants in the short term, but as a long-term holder, this delay doesn't matter.
  • Tesla's stock price is likely to increase as the market gives more credit to the company's autonomy capabilities, specifically with the rollout of its robotaxi service, once the scale and volume of the service become more apparent.
  • Tesla's potential rollout of robotaxis could significantly impact the market, with a possible progression from safety-monitored testing to full deployment in multiple cities and states within a few months.
  • Tesla's stock may see governance-related upside and has limited downside risk, with energy business growing strongly, and potential catalysts including a new compensation package, news on the affordable car, and Robotaxi developments.
  • Several factors, including Elon Musk's compensation package, new vehicle announcements, and potential robotaxi income, could impact Tesla's stock in the next six months.
  • Analysts are starting to understand Tesla's earnings power, but concerns remain about US battery supply due to foreign entity concerns, tariffs, and short-term capacity constraints.
• 40:52 🤖 Tesla is securing strategic partnerships, such as with Samsung and LG, to advance its robotaxi plans with improved autonomy and AI capabilities.
  • Tesla's strategic moves, such as securing deals with Samsung and LG for AI chips and batteries, are crucial for future improvements in autonomy, particularly for its robotaxi plans.
  • The value in semiconductor production is created through co-working and design for manufacturability, enabling better yields, shorter process times, and lower costs.
  • Tesla's partnership with Samsung on AI computer fabrication and packaging is a strategic win for both companies, marking the first time a complex AI computer will be fabricated and assembled in the US for a consumer product.
  • Elon Musk and his team have been secretly planning and working on a strategic roadmap for Tesla, including a deal with Samsung, that showcases their long-term vision for the company's future, specifically its robotaxi plans.
  • The speaker is confident that the working styles of Tesla and a South Korean company will be complementary, given the reputation of South Koreans as hard workers.
  • Elon Musk's deal with Samsung for chip production near Giga Texas is highly beneficial to Tesla, giving them sole production rights and flexibility to switch to TSMC if needed.
• 48:59 🤖 Tesla's shareholder voting stake, Delaware Supreme Court appeal, and potential investments in XAI are key upcoming events that could impact Elon Musk's voting power and company direction.
  • Tesla's supply chain team, led by Elon Musk, effectively navigated supply chain challenges and secured strategic deals, such as with Samsung, to drive the company's success.
  • Tesla is updating shareholder proposal submissions, informing some that their bank letters need amending to meet new SEC rules, with a two-week deadline to provide supplementary information.
  • The speaker praises the team's and YouTube audience's quick reaction and action in response to a situation, specifically thanking Alexandra, Amy, and shareholders.
  • Tesla shareholders should hold their stock from September 1st to 12th to ensure they can vote on the proxy, which may include a question on investing in XAI.
  • Elon Musk's potential voting stake in Tesla, if options are exercised, would increase from 12.8% to around 17%, not 20.5%, due to 45% tax implications.
  • The Delaware Supreme Court is expected to hear Tesla's 2018 appeal in late August or early September, with a verdict likely by November or December, which the speaker believes they will win.
• 57:16 🚗 Tesla plans to launch robotaxis with limited rollout in a few cities next year, prioritizing robo-taxi demand over consumer purchases, amid internal tensions and Elon Musk's push for investments.
  • Elon Musk wants 25% voting control of Tesla, currently at 17%, and one possible solution, issuing a different class of shares, may not be allowed under NASDAQ rules.
  • Elon Musk's confidence in Tesla's future, including a potential $20 trillion market cap, suggests his compensation plan may be tied to achieving such goals.
  • There is a perceived tension between Tesla's CFO, who is concerned about allocating funds for various priorities, and Elon Musk, who is pushing for investments in areas like XAI, robotaxi, and compensation packages.
  • Tesla is likely to start volume production of its robotaxis in the first half of next year, with a possible small batch of a couple hundred or a thousand units potentially being built by the end of this year.
  • Tesla plans to prioritize building cars for robo-taxi demand, potentially limiting consumer purchases, with CyberCab possibly launching this year and initially being used for robo-taxis.
  • Tesla's robotaxis will likely launch with a limited rollout in a few cities, possibly including Austin, with or without a safety monitor, before expanding rapidly.
• 01:06:50 🤖 Tesla's stock price is expected to double to $600 by 2026 as company shifts focus to AI data centers and autonomous business, leveraging existing factory capacity.
  • The stock price is expected to at least double to $600 by the end of 2026.
  • Tesla prioritizes utilizing and optimizing existing factory capacity before building new ones, and may use plans for new factories as leverage in negotiations.
  • Investing in a new factory, such as one in Nevada for semi-trucks, seems unnecessary given existing underutilization and capacity for expansion at current sites.
  • Tesla's focus is shifting from building more gigafactories to constructing AI data centers, such as Colossus 2 and Cortex 2, to support its autonomous and AI-driven business.
  • Herbert thanks the panel and mentions his website, herbertong.com, as a comprehensive resource for Tesla investors.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SBwhmBxduUo