Tesla Stock Potential: FSD, $25K Car, AI Shift - Where's Elon?

Despite concerns about Elon Musk's communication and engagement, Tesla's stock has potential for growth with catalysts like full self-driving and charging expansions, as well as the potential impact of the $25,000 car and FSD V12, and the company's shift towards being an AI and Robotics company 

Questions to inspire discussion 

• Why hasn't Elon Musk been talking much about the Cyber truck or the Tesla bot?

  —Elon Musk's level of engagement and excitement about Tesla's endeavors has a significant impact on the stock's performance, and it is suggested that he should talk more about the company to generate excitement and positive sentiment.

• What are the potential catalysts for Tesla's stock growth?

  —Tesla's stock has potential for growth with catalysts like full self-driving and charging expansions, as well as the potential impact of the $25,000 car and FSD V12, and the company's shift towards being an AI and Robotics company.

• How has Elon Musk's decreased focus on Tesla impacted the stock price?

  —Elon Musk's decreased focus on Tesla and caution about Q4 numbers may impact the stock price, but the executives stepping up could help, and the affordability of Tesla cars has been affected by raising interest rates.

• What is the potential impact of Tesla's products on the company's financials?

  —The $25,000 car and FSD V12 will have a significant impact, with both happening concurrently in the next six months, and a predicted stock price over $500 by 2026.

• What is the speaker's opinion on Tesla's future as an AI company?

  —Tesla is not just a short-term investment and has the potential to impact financials as an AI company, with the potential for a robot to be cheaper than an employee and Tesla already having a top-ranked supply chain.

Key Insights 

Impact of Tesla's future products and technology on stock valuation

• 📈 Tesla's investors are divided on what will have the most significant impact on Tesla's financial results, with options like FSD version 12, Robo taxi, and the $25,000 car being considered.
• 🚗 The $25,000 Tesla car will have a much more natural and widespread appeal than the concept of robotaxis or software as a service.
• 💰 Predicting a stock price over $500 comfortably can be expected by 2026, as everything seems to be operational and profitable by then.
• 🤖 The bot has the greatest potential for boosting the stock, even just one more demo video away.
• 🚗 The $25,000 car will fill the valuation once it's launched, and there might be a surprise when it's revealed and goes into production.
• 🚗 The potential production volume of a billion units per year for the bot and 10 million units per year for Tesla's vehicle is mind-boggling and could significantly impact their cost structure.
• 🧠 The concept of a lower cost vehicle and the implementation of bots in the supply chain could have a significant impact on Tesla's future.

Tesla's potential as an AI and tech company beyond car manufacturing

• 💰 The potential valuation of Tesla's bot and AI business could significantly impact the overall value of the company, beyond just car sales and margins.
• 📈 The moment when you stop comparing it to car companies and start comparing it to Amazon is crucial for understanding Tesla's potential as an AI company.
• 📈 Tesla's shift in sector allocation could lead to a major influx of money into the tech sector, making it a much bigger event than the S&P 500 inclusion.
• 💡 The idea that bots could potentially solve major societal issues such as debt and healthcare is a thought-provoking and bold claim.
• 🤖 Elon Musk's vision for a manufacturing robot could revolutionize the industry and drastically reduce labor costs.
• 🧠 The AI work that Tesla is doing is way more meaningful and difficult than the current capability of language models today, and it may take a global moment of V12 just working all the time for the market to reconcile its value as an AI company.

#Investment #Tesla

Clips 

• 00:00 📉 Investors are concerned about Elon Musk's lack of communication and engagement with Tesla's products, leading to uncertainty and speculation about the company's performance.
  • Investors are wondering where Elon Musk has been and why he hasn't been talking much about the Cyber truck or the Tesla bot, with speculation about his personal life and other business ventures.
  • Elon Musk's level of engagement and excitement about Tesla's endeavors has a significant impact on the stock's performance, and it is suggested that he should talk more about the company to generate excitement and positive sentiment.
  • There are many Tesla accounts with a large number of views, Elon Musk does not comment on the stock, and management cannot discuss output, deliveries, and financials during the blackout period.
  • Elon Musk has become more cautious in making forward-looking statements, and there is a hope for him to address the economy and Tesla's performance on the earnings call.
  • Elon Musk's silence on Tesla's products and progress may be intentional to shift focus from him to other key players in the company, and there is uncertainty about the reasons behind his lack of communication.
  • Tesla's stock has not performed as well as the overall market, and there are various reasons for this.
• 12:28 📈 Tesla's stock has potential catalysts like full self-driving and charging expansions, but Elon Musk's decreased focus and caution about Q4 numbers may impact the stock, while options trading and managing greed in the stock market are important to consider.
  • The stock value has not moved much in the past three years, but the company is well positioned to execute on major catalysts such as full self-driving and charging expansions.
  • Elon Musk's decreased focus on Tesla and caution about Q4 numbers may impact the stock price, but the executives stepping up could help, and the affordability of Tesla cars has been affected by raising interest rates.
  • Tesla's stock price fluctuated due to COVID, liquidity, and S&P inclusion, leading to overblown multiples and overly optimistic earning calls, with the tone of the mid-January earnings call being crucial.
  • Investment style discussion and cautionary tales about options trading and managing greed in the stock market.
  • Understanding and utilizing options can be beneficial for boosting returns, but it's important to be cautious and knowledgeable, especially in the volatile market of Tesla.
  • The speaker was surprised by the results of a poll they posted and discussed the process of crafting a post.
• 22:55 🚗 Tesla's stock will grow with the potential impact of the $25,000 car and FSD V12, with a predicted stock price over $500 by 2026.
  • The speaker discusses the potential impact of Tesla's products on the company's financials, particularly the Optimus bot's potential to lower costs, and the decision to exclude energy from the discussion due to its already known impact.
  • Tesla's stock will grow significantly in the next few quarters, and the idea of a $25,000 Tesla car is more easily understood and accepted by people than the concept of software advancements like robotaxis and version 12.
  • The $25,000 car may not appear in financial results until 2026, but FSD version 12 and robot taxi uptake could impact financial results sooner.
  • The $25,000 car may not be available until 2025, with the FSD2 likely to have the highest demand, and the FSD V12 needing iterations before being widely useful in Europe and China.
  • The $25,000 car is already impacting Tesla's financial results as suppliers are in a competition to be part of it, and its volume will be two to five times that of the current car portfolio, affecting the economic performance of Model Y and Model 3 parts.
  • Tesla's $25,000 car and FSD V12 will have a significant impact, with both happening concurrently in the next six months, and a predicted stock price over $500 by 2026.
• 33:21 🚗 Elon Musk may announce a partnership for Full Self-Driving, potentially leading to licensing and a bullish outlook for Tesla stock, with a projected value of $500 by 2026.
  • Elon Musk may announce a partnership for Full Self-Driving, potentially leading to licensing and a bullish outlook for Tesla stock, with a projected value of $500 by 2026.
  • The speaker believes that the development and demonstration of the bot has the greatest potential to boost Tesla's stock, even without showing bottom line revenue, and disagrees with the notion that energy is already built in.
  • Investment in Tesla is not just about cars, but also about the advancements in programming and the potential for a $25,000 car to impact the company's valuation.
  • Suppliers are competing in a bake off, FSD2 is a game changer with AI programming, and the innovation in Tesla lies in the Bots and FSD.
  • Bots will take a long time to play out at a meaningful scale, and the market is in a weird transition with poor sentiment and dislocations occurring.
  • The speaker discusses the importance of Tesla's stock performance, upcoming earnings call, and future capex expenditure in relation to the company's expansion and long-term vision.
• 41:09 🚀 Tesla's stock is not just impacted by car sales, but also by the potential value of its other startup businesses, such as the bot and AI company, which could significantly impact its future valuation, and investors need to start comparing it to Amazon as it has the potential to impact financials as an AI company.
  • Tesla is making Dojo accessible to the masses, potentially leasing Dojo space and creating a public facing API, which could be a billion dollar business.
  • Tesla's stock is not just impacted by car sales, but also by the potential value of its other startup businesses, such as the bot and AI company, which could significantly impact its future valuation.
  • Investors need to stop comparing Tesla to car companies and start comparing it to Amazon, as it is not a short-term investment and has the potential to impact financials as an AI company.
  • Tesla's stock will likely shift from the consumer cyclicals sector to the tech sector, resulting in a significant influx of money.
  • Elon Musk tweets about MKBHD's skepticism of Tesla bot, suggesting that it may be a way for Tesla to explore computer vision and AI, and questions the effectiveness of MKBHD's cyber truck review.
  • Elon Musk's lack of vision for the potential of bots in the workforce is surprising, as it could greatly impact employment and solve major societal issues.
• 52:45 🚀 Tesla's focus on manufacturing, potential for a cheaper robot than employee, and future lower cost vehicle will create tremendous earnings power, with plans to manufacture all cars in Austin and other locations.
  • Elon Musk's dancing robot reveal at Tesla was unprofessional and not in line with the company's image, and the progress of the robot compared to Boston Dynamics is surprising.
  • Elon Musk is focused on manufacturing and wants Tesla to be one of the biggest companies in the world, with the potential for a robot to be cheaper than an employee and Tesla already having a top-ranked supply chain.
  • Tesla's future lower cost vehicle and bot will create tremendous earnings power through purchasing and geographical sourcing leverage, gigafactory footprint, and supply chain scale, which is often overlooked by investors.
  • Tesla is working on lowering the cost of their vehicles through automation and the use of bots in their factories.
  • Tesla is hiring for engineering positions in Nevada and Palo Alto, and the speaker predicts that in a couple of years, all cars will be manufactured in Austin and other locations, with Fremont being used for Bots due to expensive labor in California.
  • The speaker discusses their unconventional ideas and thoughts about the future of Tesla and California.
• 59:56 🚀 Tesla's new bot and AI capabilities are underestimated, with Elon Musk's involvement and the company's shift towards being an AI and Robotics company, despite criticism and lack of understanding of their technology.
  • The speaker discusses the potential attitudes and capabilities of Tesla's new bot, joking about its preferences and potential influence, while also mentioning the demo and Elon's involvement.
  • Elon Musk's Gen 2 Optimus has new hands with amazing dexterity, and despite criticism from Tesla Q and Ross Gerber, the engineers are making great progress in perfecting the bots.
  • Tesla's efficient use of resources to scale production contrasts with the limitations of AI tools in accurately counting faces in a photo.
  • Tesla's vision technology is highly underestimated and the complexity of their AI work is not being recognized by the market.
  • Elon Musk and his teams are moving engineers around within the company, and there are a lot of job offerings for AI and Robotics teams, showing that Tesla is not just a car company but also an AI and Robotics company.
  • The speaker discusses the availability of a white paper for the Dojo chip and mentions their lack of understanding of chip manufacturing.
• 01:09:39 📈 Tesla's stock is in a good position for potential growth, with Elon Musk interacting with fans on Twitter and discussing the success of Tesla.
  • Finance professionals and Wall Street managers are often clueless about what they are doing, while engineers are the real heroes, and there was a recent market event that caused a dip in the market.
  • The speaker discusses the FED pivot and the success of achieving a soft landing in the economy, possibly influenced by the upcoming election year.
  • Tesla's stock may benefit from potential interest rate cuts, which could improve macroeconomic conditions and lead to increased sales.
  • Tesla's stock is in a good position, with potential for growth in the next quarter and positive seasonality, despite potential lagging effects and concerns about global macro outlook.
  • Elon Musk follows and interacts with fans on Twitter, showing appreciation for their support and occasionally unfollowing accounts that tweet too much.
  • Elon Musk discusses his anxiety about tweeting too much, his frustration with his account, and the success of Tesla, while also thanking and promoting other individuals.

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