Why Tesla Stock Valuation needs to be RESET

Tesla's Future Projections

🚗 Q: What are Tesla's robo taxi fleet projections for 2030 and 2040?
A: Tesla's robo taxi fleet is projected to reach 4 million by 2030 and 147 million by 2040, capturing 80% of the market.

🤖 Q: When will Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot be fully capable?
A: Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot is expected to perform any task by 2027, with 147 million units installed by 2040.

🚀 Q: What is Tesla's base case scenario for robo taxi deployment?
A: Tesla's base case predicts 40,000 robo taxis by 2026, growing to 1.6 million by 2029, and 4 million by 2030.

Financial Projections

💰 Q: What is Tesla's projected market cap in 2030 according to the base case?
A: Tesla's 2030 market cap could reach $694 trillion with 147 million robo taxis and 1.5 billion Optimus robots deployed.

📈 Q: What is the bull case scenario for Tesla's 2030 market cap?
A: In the bull case, Tesla's 2030 market cap could reach $1,400 trillion with 271 million robo taxis and 1.5 billion Optimus robots.

💵 Q: What is the projected future fair value stock price for Tesla in 2030?
A: The future fair value stock price is projected to be $8,000 in the base case and $14,600 in the bull case by 2030.

Business Challenges and Strategies

🏭 Q: What challenges will Tesla's core business face in 2025?
A: Tesla will experience a strong Q3 in 2025 due to tax credit expiration, followed by a major challenge in Q4 without credits.

🚘 Q: How will Tesla address the challenges in Q4 2025?
A: Tesla plans to launch affordable models in Q4 2025 to compensate for the loss of tax credits.

Technology and Market Dominance

🧠 Q: When is Tesla expected to achieve perfect Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology?
A: Tesla is projected to achieve perfect FSD technology guaranteeing complete autonomy by 2027.

🌐 Q: How will Tesla's revenue streams change in the future?
A: Tesla's revenue streams will undergo major changes, including significant income from robo taxi and Optimus humanoid robot sales.

Valuation Model

📊 Q: Why does Tesla's valuation model need to be reset?
A: Tesla's valuation model needs resetting due to major changes in revenue streams, particularly from robo taxis and Optimus robots.

🔮 Q: What factors will drive Tesla's future market dominance?
A: Tesla's market dominance will be driven by perfect FSD technology, robo taxi fleet expansion, and Optimus robot deployment.

Tesla's Future Valuation

🚗 Tesla's robo taxi fleet is projected to reach 4 million by 2030 and 147 million by 2040, potentially capturing 80% market share.

🤖 The Optimus humanoid robot is expected to perform any task by 2027, with 147 million units deployed by 2040, becoming a key revenue stream.

💰 Tesla's 2030 market cap could reach $25 trillion in the base case, $694 trillion in the bull case, or even $1,400 trillion in an extreme scenario.

Technology and Manufacturing

🧠 Tesla's partnership with Samsung for AI chip manufacturing involves a $16.5 billion initial investment to produce millions of high-quality chips for robo taxis and Optimus robots.

🏭 The company's core EV and energy business is expected to grow to 20 million cars on the road by 2030, providing a stable revenue foundation.

Valuation Model and Stock Predictions

📊 Jo Bhakdi's valuation model includes three scenarios: base case, bull case, and bear case, each with different assumptions about revenue growth and market share.

📈 The model predicts Tesla's future fair value stock price will correlate with the real stock price over time, with the stock price approaching the fair value line.

💹 In the base case scenario, Tesla's 2030 stock price could reach $8,000, based on 147 million robo taxis and 1.5 billion Optimus robots deployed.

🚀 The bull case scenario suggests a 2030 stock price of $14,600, assuming 271 million robo taxis and 1.5 billion Optimus robots in operation.

Market Implications

🌐 Tesla is positioned to become the dominant player in the autonomous vehicle market by 2040, according to the model's projections.

💼 The company's diversification into robotics and AI chip production could significantly expand its revenue streams beyond traditional automotive sales.

🔮 The model's extreme projections highlight the potential for exponential growth in Tesla's valuation, contingent on successful execution of its ambitious technological goals.

• 00:00 🤖 Tesla's stock valuation needs a reset due to upcoming launches of Optimus robots, robo-taxis, and new models that will significantly impact the company's business.
  • Tesla's stock valuation model needs to be updated to accurately predict the company's future revenue streams, particularly from Optimus, the humanoid robot, and robo-taxis.
  • Tesla's robo taxi is rolling out in multiple metropolitan areas, with over 10 locations expected by the end of the year, including Austin, San Francisco, Phoenix, several Florida locations, and New York.
  • Tesla's stock valuation needs a reset due to upcoming launches, including Optimus robots, AI chips, and affordable models, which will significantly impact the company's business.
  • Tesla's stock valuation needs to be reset due to delayed launches of affordable models, changing demand, and expiring tax credits, requiring a revised scenario-based model to predict future performance.
• 04:37 📊 Tesla stock valuation needs a probabilistic approach, considering base, bull, and bear cases to accurately account for uncertainty.
  • Stock valuation should be done probabilistically by splitting the future into base, bull, and bear cases to account for uncertainty.
  • The speaker explains that their financial model for Tesla stock valuation includes a base case, a bull case (representing a reasonably probable positive scenario), and a bare case (representing a reasonably probable negative scenario), excluding unrealistic best-case and worst-case scenarios.
• 06:57 📊 Tesla's stock valuation needs a reset based on a comprehensive financial model that considers key metrics and fundamentals like earnings and free cash flow.
  • Tesla's stock valuation can be determined by a comprehensive financial model that considers various inputs, including revenue and EBITDA projections for different business lines, to calculate a future share price.
  • The speaker analyzes Tesla's stock valuation by projecting key metrics, including robo taxi fleet size and Optimus install base, from 2026 to 2040 to determine revenue streams.
  • The stock price will eventually converge to its fair value, which is determined by fundamentals like earnings and free cash flow, over time, either from an overvalued or undervalued position.
  • Short-term anything can happen, and a deeper analysis of numbers is needed to understand the base case for Tesla stock valuation.
• 10:45 🚗 Tesla's autonomous lead could lead to 147M robo taxis by 2040, capturing 8-20% of the total car market share.
  • Tesla will have 147 million robo taxis on the road by 2040, with a projected fleet growth of 40,000 in 2026, 190,000 in 2027, 600,000, 1.6 million, and 4 million by 2030, due to its lead in autonomous technology and lack of competition.
  • Tesla could own 8-20% of the total car market share by 2040, with a potential 147 million electric vehicles, which is a significant portion.
• 13:04 💸 Tesla's stock valuation needs a reset as it could reach $8,000 by 2030 with potential free cash flow of $235 billion from new ventures.
  • Tesla's free cash flow could dramatically increase to $235 billion by 2030, at $500 billion revenue, if projections for Optimus human robots and other ventures are achieved.
  • Tesla's base case prediction is a stock price of $8,000 by 2030, which translates to a 27x multiple over 10 years, making it a good but not brilliant investment.
• 15:40 🤖 Tesla's stock valuation needs a reset with potential market cap of $1.4 trillion by 2040 and price targets of $8,000-$14,600 by 2030.
  • The speaker's updated price targets for Tesla stock are $8,000 for the base case and $14,600 for the bull case by 2030.
  • By 2040, Tesla's market cap could reach $1,400 trillion with 147 million robo-taxis and 1.5 billion Optimus robots installed, with roughly 12% of the global fleet being autonomous Teslas.
  • Tesla's Optimus robot installed base may reach 2.6 million by 2030, but this seems unlikely, with a more realistic estimate being 170,000, leading to vastly different target share prices.
• 18:47 📊 Tesla's stock valuation needs a reset due to potential massive growth from 1 million robo-taxis and Optimus robots by 2030.
  • Tesla's bare case valuation scenario, assuming a slow rollout, projects 1 million robo taxis and 1 million Optimus robots by 2030, which is considered a reasonable bad case given the technology is largely done and demand is high.
  • Tesla's bare case valuation of $1,877 per share by 2030 assumes massive competition, 360 million Optimus robots, and 30 million robo-taxis by 2040, implying major failure for the company.
• 21:14 💸 Tesla's stock valuation needs a reset due to emerging mega trends like AI, crypto, and pioneer empowerment that could justify a $1,877 stock price.
  • Tesla's stock price could be justified at $1,877 in a worst-case scenario with significant competition and slow growth, still representing a reasonable valuation multiple.
  • Tesla's stock valuation needs to be reassessed in the context of three mega trends: artificial general intelligence, the age of crypto, and pioneer empowerment, which also benefits other stocks like Nvidia, Palantir, Microsoft, Google, Robinhood, and Coinbase.
  • Tesla stock valuation must be reassessed in the context of other investments like MicroStrategy, Bitcoin, and Ethereum to determine the right blend and return-risk profile.
  • New interface, called Pioneer operating system, and capital app for managing and analyzing capital will be launched in a few weeks, likely by September.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6i2pHiw0BI0