Tesla is preparing to launch new and improved versions of its Model Y and Full Self-Driving (FSD) system, with enhanced features and capabilities that may drive demand, increase capacity utilization, and shift the company's focus towards autonomy-enabled vehicles
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Questions to inspire discussion
Production and Features
π Q: What are the key features of Tesla's new Model Y L in China?
A: The Model Y L includes cooling seats, upgraded interior, automatic fold-down seats, and armrests that come up and down, aimed at increasing capacity utilization and maintaining high demand in the Chinese market.
π Q: How does the Model Y L's production strategy benefit Tesla?
A: The strategy helps keep production lines occupied and fully producing at a rate of over 500,000 units per quarter, supporting Tesla's goal to increase capacity utilization and maintain high demand.
Autonomy and FSD
π€ Q: What is the biggest valuation upside for Tesla?
A: Tesla's autonomy roadmap is considered the biggest valuation upside, with the company's robotaxi plans involving 5-passenger vehicles without a driver seat potentially increasing upside option values for investors.
π Q: How has Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system improved?
A: FSD has made massive improvements with Version 13, and Version 14 may be the breakthrough moment that pushes Tesla past human-level driving and conquers another three nines of safety.
Future Projections
π Q: What is the expected FSD take rate in the coming years?
A: The FSD take rate is projected to increase to 20% in the next few years, with cyber cabs having FSD included, while individual owners may need to opt-in for a while before it becomes standard on all new cars.
π Q: Will the Model Y L be available in the US and Europe?
A: The availability of the Model Y L in the US and Europe is currently uncertain, as it was initially introduced for the Chinese market to boost demand and production efficiency.
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Key Insights
Autonomous Driving Progress
π Tesla's FSD version 13 has achieved 5,000 miles between safety-critical disengagements, marking significant progress towards human-level safety, but still needs to improve by two more orders of magnitude.
π€ Tesla's robotaxi plans involve 5-passenger vehicles without a driver's seat, potentially increasing the company's upside option values while presenting logistical challenges for managing a large network.
Product Strategy
π The new Model Y L in China features cooling seats, upgraded interior, and production strategy changes to increase capacity utilization and maintain high demand.
πΊ Tesla's Model S and X are now only available with FSD included at higher prices, possibly signaling a move towards mandatory FSD on all new vehicles.
Market Expansion
π Tesla's FSD take rate is expected to reach 20% in the coming years, with all cyber cabs including FSD, but achieving 100% FSD attach rates depends on conquering safety aspects.
π The availability of the Model Y L in the US and Europe remains uncertain, potentially indicating a China-focused strategy or future global expansion plans.
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#Vehicles #Tesla
XMentions: @Tesla @HabitatsDigital @bradsferguson @MatchasmMatt
Clips
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00:00 π Tesla's new Model Y Long Range variant, likely to debut in China, may also potentially come to the US, increasing capacity utilization and demand.
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01:08 π Tesla's new Model Y features innovative upgrades like automatic folding seats and cooling middle seats, highlighting a focus on luxury and autonomy.
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02:34 π Tesla is preparing a new Model Y with enhanced features, including improved rear seating accessibility, and potentially FSD 14 capabilities for future robo-taxi use.
- Tesla aims to boost production and market segmentation to meet demand, while preparing the Model Y for future robo-taxi capabilities, despite challenges in advertising and conflicting signals from other models.
- The new Model Y will have improved rear seating accessibility, allowing passengers to slide between seats and making the back row more usable.
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04:23 π Tesla may discontinue the Model S/X and make FSD a required feature on all new and used Teslas, shifting focus to autonomy-enabled vehicles.
- The new Model X with FSD now costs $105,000, a $20,000 increase from earlier this year, which may not be worth the money for many buyers.
- Tesla may be discontinuing the SNX and shifting Fremont production to focus on autonomy-enabled vehicles, such as robotaxis and drones, while making FSD a required feature on new and used Teslas.
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06:38 π Tesla's potential price increase for Full Self-Driving (FSD) capability may be hindered by current low demand and customers' perceived value of the feature.
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07:42 π Tesla's Full Self-Driving system improves by 1,000x, nearing human-level capability with 5,000 miles per critical disengagement.
- Tesla's Full Self-Driving version 13 has improved by a factor of 1,000, with 5,000 miles per critical disengagement, and may reach human-level capability if it overcomes remaining issues.
- Tesla's Full Self-Driving system has made progress in safety, but still requires significant improvements to reach human-level safety standards.
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09:51 π Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system has significantly improved from version 11 to 13, with more data, compute power, and refined processes, narrowing down the problems to be solved.
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10:30 π Tesla's Model Y and FSD 14 rumors indicate potential groundwork, with FSD take rate expected to rise to 20-50% in the near future.
- The speaker is excited that the list of Tesla Model Y and FSD 14 rumors is small, suggesting Tesla may be laying groundwork.
- Tesla's FSD take rate is expected to increase, but reaching 100% is unlikely in the next few years, with a more realistic goal of 20-50% in the near future.
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Duration: 0:12:57
Publication Date: 2025-08-20T18:27:56Z
WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TDdIrbxV59g
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