Tesla’s Growth Is Back

Tesla Sales and Production

🚗 Q: How are Tesla Model Y L sales performing in China?
A: Tesla's Model Y L sales are surging in China, with 120,000 orders received and nearly 10,000 orders placed daily, despite initial logistical delays.

📈 Q: What is Tesla's projected Q3 production?
A: Tesla's Q3 production could smash the 500,000 mark, with 83,000 wholesale vehicles and 57,000 retail vehicles delivered in August, including 26,000 exported units.

Mega Pack Production

🏭 Q: What are Tesla's plans for the Shanghai Mega Pack factory?
A: Tesla's Shanghai Mega Pack factory aims to ramp production to 10,000 Mega Packs per year in a few months, with a total 40 gigawatt hours of storage capacity by the end of 2025.

🔋 Q: What is the main bottleneck in Mega Pack production?
A: The primary bottleneck is the battery supplier, specifically the LFP cell manufacturer, as Tesla needs to source 40 gigawatt hours of cells for production.

🔌 Q: How is Tesla addressing production bottlenecks?
A: Tesla is eliminating bottlenecks by building its own transformer capacity in countries like India and China, rather than waiting for imports.

Future Developments

📷 Q: What new feature is Tesla adding to the Model 3 in China?
A: Tesla's Model 3 will add a front camera to the bumper in China to improve FSD capabilities, similar to the existing feature on the Model Y.

🚀 Q: What are the expectations for Tesla's Houston Mega Pack factory?
A: The Houston Mega Pack factory will be the most capable yet, with an annual production capacity of 50 gigawatt hours, 25% more than other Mega Pack factories.

Business Milestones

💼 Q: What milestones are important for Tesla's board?
A: Tesla's board proposal includes milestones for FSD registrations, subscriptions, car sales, and a 20 million car sales target, which could include Tesla-owned vehicles.

🤔 Q: Why is the 20 million car sales milestone controversial?
A: The milestone is seen as a weird perverse incentive that could lead to selling cars even if less profitable than holding them, potentially undercutting earnings objectives.

Competition

🚙 Q: What challenges is Polestar facing in the EV market?
A: Polestar, a pure EV manufacturer, has issued a going concern warning and has a $300 million market cap, competing with Tesla's Model S at the high end.

Tesla's Growth and Production

🚗 Tesla's Model Y L sales are surging in China, with 900 units sold in the first week and 120,000 orders placed, indicating strong demand for the new variant.

🏭 Tesla's Shanghai mega pack factory plans to ramp up production to 10,000 mega packs per year by the end of 2025, representing a substantial increase in pace.

🔋 The new Houston mega factory will be Tesla's most capable yet, with an annual production capacity of 50 GWh, 25% more than other mega factories.

Production Challenges and Solutions

🔬 The bottleneck in mega pack production is the battery supplier, specifically the LFP cell manufacturer, as Tesla requires 40 GWh of cells.

🔧 Tesla is eliminating bottlenecks in various areas, including transformers, which are expensive and have long wait times.

🌏 Countries like India and China are developing their own transformer capacity for power plants and hydro dams, potentially easing supply constraints.

Future Developments

📷 Tesla's Model 3 will receive a front camera upgrade in China, improving its Autopilot capabilities.

🆕 The Houston mega factory will be the first to manufacture the all-new Mega Pac 3s in late 2026.

🔌 Tesla's Nevada manufacturing plant is expected to come online soon, supplying LFP cells for the Houston mega factory.

Market Dynamics

📊 Analyst Brian White views the strong Model Y L sales as a good sign for Tesla's growth, despite delivery dates slipping to November.

🚙 Tesla's competitor Polestar has issued a going concern warning, expressing doubts about its survival despite launching the 100,000th Polestar 5 sedan.

🚀 Tesla is accelerating its growth in both vehicle sales and mega pack production, with significant progress in China and global factory expansions.

• 00:00 📈 Tesla's sales are surging, with Model Y Long Range sold out for Q3, record vehicle registrations in China, and plans to ramp up mega pack production exponentially.
• 01:12 📈 Tesla's growth is back with strong China sales, including 14.3K insurance registrations, and a sold-out Model Y Long Range for Q3.
  • The host welcomes Brian White, a Tesla retail analyst, to discuss Tesla's growth, recent news, and developments in various countries, including Nepal and China.
  • Tesla China's Model Y Long Range is sold out in Q3 with estimated delivery dates in November, and the company saw 14.3K insurance registrations, 14% higher than the previous week, but still down 11% year-over-year.
• 02:57 🚀 Tesla's growth is back on track, driven by a shift in strategy towards autonomy and strong production and delivery numbers, with 2025 projections showing significant improvement.
  • Tesla's growth is expected to increase, with 2025 projections showing improvement over 2024 and 2023, and upcoming numbers are anticipated to be larger than last week's.
  • Tesla's growth concerns are alleviated by close production and delivery numbers, despite temporary factory shutdowns and new product introductions, indicating a strong and recovering trend.
  • Tesla's growth strategy has shifted from mass-producing 20 million vehicles per year to focusing on autonomy, which could be achieved with a significantly lower number of cars, around 2-4 million.
  • Tesla's car sales still matter for Elon to meet milestones, such as FSD registrations and subscriptions, and definitions allow for cars to be counted as "sold" even if not to customers.
  • The criticism of Tesla's plan has little merit, with the only valid argument being that Elon Musk could have done it for less money.
• 08:16 📈 Tesla's China operations and new Model Y are showing strong growth with high demand, 83,000 wholesale vehicles sold in August and 120,000 orders received for the new variant.
  • Tesla's China operations show growth with 83,000 wholesale vehicles in August, and strong Q3 registration numbers with 14,000 insurance registrations in the week of September 1st.
  • Tesla's Model Y Long Range variant sold 900 units in its first week, a number expected to increase as delivery and paperwork processes unfold.
  • Tesla's new Model Y is seeing high demand, with reports of 120,000 orders received and nearly 10,000 orders per day, potentially cannibalizing sales of other Model Y variants.
  • The accuracy of the numbers is questionable and no longer relevant.
• 12:31 🚗 Tesla updates Model 3 with front cameras, boosts Megapack production capacity, and ponders philosophical questions amidst growth.
  • Tesla is adding front cameras to Model 3 Long Range and Performance vehicles produced at Gigafactory Shanghai, likely due to the vehicle's design allowing sufficient visibility over the hood.
  • Front cameras are not crucial for Full Self-Driving (FSD) but are helpful, and a Model 3 without one can still operate, though it may detect objects in its path and require driver intervention.
  • Tesla's Shanghai Megapack factory is expected to produce 10,000 Megapacks per year by 2025, but the bottleneck may be the battery cell supply from manufacturers.
  • The question of whether sound exists without an observer is humorously raised in the context of automated systems.
• 17:01 📈 Tesla's growth is expected to surge with increasing production capacity and global demand for energy storage, despite supply chain bottlenecks in some countries.
  • Tesla's mega pack growth has been exponential with 36 gigawatt hours installed across 2100 projects and is projected to increase with 80 gigawatt hours of annual manufacturing capacity.
  • Tesla's growth is expected to increase dramatically with plans to ramp up production to 40 or beyond in Houston by the end of next year.
  • Countries like India and China are rapidly developing their own transformer capacity, while the US and other western countries face bottlenecks due to high costs, long wait times, and hoarding by data centers.
• 20:27 📈 Tesla's growth is back, with existing factories in Shanghai, Lurope, and Houston driving growth, and potential for new LFP cell capacity to support future expansion.
  • Tesla's delay in announcing a new Megapack factory is likely due to cell limitations, but existing LFP cell capacity in the US could become available for Tesla to utilize.
  • Tesla's delay in announcing new factories, such as the next Mega Pack factory, seems unlikely given their current growth with existing facilities in Shanghai, Lyrope, and Houston.
  • Companies don't need to announce everything they're doing, some things can be a surprise.
  • Tesla is ramping up LFP cell production, but it's a complicated and difficult process, with one new production facility only producing 10 GWh, which is insufficient for their factories.
  • Tesla's mega-pack factories, including a new one in Houston, will have a combined production capacity of 130 gigawatt hours per year, enough to power 50 million homes.
• 25:01 📈 Tesla's growth prospects look positive as it outperforms struggling EV manufacturers, including Polestar and Fisker, while diversified companies like BYD also thrive.
  • Tesla's growth prospects look positive as other car companies, such as Polestar, struggle in China and face doubts about their survival despite launching new products.
  • The speaker questions the survival prospects of several EV manufacturers, including Fisker with a $0.3 billion market cap, amidst a challenging financial environment.
  • BYD, like Tesla, is a diversified company producing not just cars, but also batteries, including electric vehicle batteries and cell phone batteries.
  • Tesla's growth seems to be back, as it was the only one that grew in the last week while other automakers, including Polestar, fell, though it's still early to draw conclusions.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjA_gmMQlvw