Tesla’s China Comeback Surprises Wall Street Analysts!

Market Trends

🚗 Q: How is Tesla performing in the Chinese market?
A: Tesla China achieved record weekly sales in September 2025, showing a strong market presence despite a 7% year-over-year decline, with potential for a comeback in the Chinese market.

📈 Q: What's the current state of the global EV market?
A: Chinese electric vehicles now account for over 50% of global EV sales, priced thousands of dollars cheaper than US and European models, dominating the global EV market.

🏭 Q: How are Chinese automakers performing compared to established rivals?
A: Chinese automakers like BYD and Geely are rolling out models faster and more cheaply than established rivals, with BYD and Geely making profits of 2 billion and 1.3 billion respectively in the first half of 2025.

Tesla's Strategy

🔋 Q: What's new with Tesla's superchargers in China?
A: Tesla installed the first version 4 supercharger in Beijing, featuring 500 kW cabinets, designed to charge non-Tesla vehicles faster and prepare for next-generation Tesla vehicles.

🚘 Q: What new Tesla models are expected in China?
A: Tesla is expected to launch the Model L and a more affordable vehicle in China, which could help beat last year's numbers despite factory shutdowns for the Model Y refresh.

💰 Q: How profitable is Tesla's Model Y?
A: Tesla's Model Y is a profit powerhouse, making more profit than a Wooling Mini costs, while competitors like Rivian and Lucid lose money on every car sold.

Market Share and Competition

📊 Q: What's Tesla's expected market share in China?
A: Tesla's China market share is projected to reach 3-5% as the Chinese auto market transitions to full electric.

🏆 Q: How are Chinese automakers competing globally?
A: Chinese automakers are aggressively expanding to surpass Volkswagen, Toyota, and GM in volume, with BYD expected to overtake Volkswagen and Toyota soon.

Product Development

🏎️ Q: Any hints about Tesla's Roadster launch in China?
A: Elon Musk suggested the Roadster would be "something special beyond a car" and potentially "mind-bogglingly insane", likely to sell well despite possible import tariffs and regulatory challenges.

Manufacturing and Infrastructure

🏭 Q: Where are Tesla's supercharger components produced?
A: Tesla's supercharger factories in Shanghai and Buffalo produce separate cabinets and stalls, with Shanghai making its own cabinets.

💡 Q: Why are Tesla's superchargers cheaper than competitors?
A: Tesla's superchargers are cheaper because they are a side business, not their main focus, unlike competitors such as Electrify America.

Pricing and Affordability

💲 Q: How do Tesla's prices compare to Chinese competitors in China?
A: Tesla's vehicles are priced at 44,000-50,000+ in China, while Chinese automakers like BYD sell affordable cars for 5,000-10,000, making it challenging for Tesla to compete on volume.

Tesla's China Strategy

🚗 Tesla China's record weekly sales despite a 7% year-over-year decline due to Model Y refresh factory shutdown demonstrate a significant market presence in China.

🔌 The launch of Tesla's first version 4 supercharger in Beijing, featuring 500 kW cabinets, showcases the company's commitment to future-proofing its charging infrastructure.

🏭 Tesla's China market share is projected to reach 3-5% as the Chinese auto market transitions from gas and hybrid to full electric vehicles.

Chinese EV Market Dominance

🌍 Chinese electric vehicles now account for over half of global EV sales, with models priced thousands of dollars cheaper than US and European counterparts.

🚀 Chinese automakers like BYD are surpassing traditional manufacturers in volume, with BYD poised to become the world's top automaker in the near future.

💰 BYD's battery division contributes 22% of their total profit, enabling the company to maintain profitability despite ongoing EV price wars.

Global EV Market Trends

🌱 Countries like Ethiopia are banning internal combustion engine imports and electrifying with hydro power, accelerating China's EV dominance.

🏗️ Chinese automakers are aggressively expanding production capacity despite thin profit margins to avoid losing market share and potential bankruptcy.

🔄 US automakers are scaling back plants and cancelling models due to prioritizing quarterly returns over long-term plans, contrasting with Chinese manufacturers' approach.

Tesla's Competitive Advantage

💲 Tesla's Model Y generates more profit than competitors like the Wooling Mini, allowing for higher profit margins at a higher price point.

⚡ Tesla's supercharger network is more cost-effective than competitors' due to its status as a side business, enabling lower prices for customers.

🎥 Tesla China's use of a fan-made Roadster video on Weibo serves as effective PR in China, where Elon Musk doesn't speak Mandarin.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SG7Y5udhexM

• 00:00 🚀 Tesla makes a strong comeback in China with record sales and new launches, potentially dominating the market and validating Elon Musk's predictions.
  • Tesla is making a strong comeback in China with record sales, new supercharger launches, and a potential market dominance that may validate Elon Musk's prediction of Chinese automakers leading the global EV market.
  • Tesla China shared a fan-made Roadster video, sparking speculation about the new model's potential sales and features, with Elon Musk hinting it's "something special beyond a car".
  • Tesla's upcoming Roadster will likely be sold in China within a year of its release, despite regulatory challenges, as buyers of high-end cars like this hypercar are less price-sensitive.
  • Tesla's year-to-date sales in China are up 7% and are on track to potentially surpass 2024 levels by the end of the year.
• 04:10 📊 Tesla's China sales are expected to beat last year's numbers despite a factory shutdown and decline in sales.
  • Tesla's 7% year-over-year decline in sales is largely attributed to weeks of factory downtime, rather than a lack of demand or market opportunities.
  • Tesla's China sales are expected to beat last year's numbers, driven by the Model Y and potentially a more affordable vehicle, despite a factory shutdown and delayed Model L launch.
• 06:27 🚗 Tesla makes a strong comeback in China with surging vehicle sales, expanding charging network, and futureproofing infrastructure, amid a booming Chinese EV market.
  • Tesla's vehicle sales in China are production-constrained, not demand-constrained, with over 1,000 orders, and will likely expand as more units are delivered to customers.
  • Tesla is futureproofing its charging network with 500 kW cabinets that can charge non-Tesla vehicles faster and potentially support megawatt charging for its upcoming vehicle generation and semis.
  • Charging at 500 kilowatts instead of 1 megawatt adds only about 1-2 minutes of full charge time before the charging rate tapers off.
  • Tesla launched the world's first full version 4 supercharger site in Beijing, featuring Shanghai-made cabinets, possibly due to China's high demand for powerful charging infrastructure.
  • Chinese electric vehicles now account for over half of global sales, priced thousands of dollars below US and European models, with BYD and Gily leading the market.
• 12:20 🚗 Tesla dominates China's EV market, leading to concerns for US automakers not on board with electrification, as many countries likely leapfrog internal combustion engines.
  • Tesla has surpassed the 20% global threshold, with Asia Pacific region exceeding 30%, indicating a significant presence in developing countries.
  • Many countries, especially those with abundant electricity, will likely leapfrog internal combustion engines and accelerate electrification, posing a concerning future for US automakers not on board with electrification.
  • China's electric vehicle industry, led by companies like BYD, is dominating global markets, including many in Asia, Europe, and others, despite being largely absent from the US due to protectionist policies.
• 15:23 📊 Wall Street analysts are surprised by Tesla's China comeback, highlighting the US' lag in EV adoption and market share compared to Europe and China.
  • Analysts compare market shares, noting BMW leads in Europe, while Volkswagen's share appears smaller.
  • The US is far behind in electric vehicle adoption, with most states having less than 10% EV sales, while California leads at 19%, highlighting the country's strategic mistake in not prioritizing smart car sales and autonomy-ready technology.
• 18:01 🚗 Tesla defies expectations with strong sales in China's competitive EV market, despite decreasing government subsidies and high pricing, setting stage for potential expansion with new affordable vehicle.
  • China's new energy vehicle market will face challenges in 2026 as government subsidies decrease and purchase taxes resume.
  • China can no longer afford to subsidize its car industry, having exhausted its capacity to offer buyer, seller, or producer incentives like tax rebates.
  • Tesla has held its own in China's high-end EV market, priced around $44,000, and remains a top seller despite being in a very high segment.
  • Tesla's market share in China's auto industry would be around 3-5% even if they sell all the cars produced in their Shanghai factory, despite having a much higher EV market share.
  • Tesla's introduction of a more affordable vehicle in China will likely require a bigger factory to meet demand, and its profit margins far exceed those of competitors like Wuling.
• 22:36 📊 Tesla makes a strong comeback in China, with Elon Musk predicting it will become the top automaker, while BYD may soon take the lead in volume.
  • Some Chinese car makers, including BYD, Gily, and SEA, remain profitable despite price wars, with profits of $2 billion, $1.3 billion, and $8.9 billion respectively in the first half of 2025.
  • Tesla is per-unit positive on every vehicle, unlike competitors like Rivian and Lucid which lose money on a per-unit basis, and is aggressively pushing for volume to gain ground.
  • Elon Musk predicts Tesla will be the top automaker, followed by 9 Chinese automakers, with BYD potentially becoming number one in volume soon.
• 25:39 🚗 Tesla dominates China's EV market with over a million cars sold, leading the industry and surprising Wall Street analysts with its comeback.
  • Tesla's dominance in the EV market, particularly in China where 50% of their sales are electric, and vertically integrated business model, including their battery division, sets them up to surpass competitors like Volkswagen, Toyota, and GM.
  • Tesla's dominance in China's EV market, where it is selling over a million cars, gives it a significant lead over competitors like Ford and GM, which are struggling to sell under 10% EVs in North America.
  • The host thanks and promotes guest Brian, a global expert on Tesla factories and dealerships, and invites viewers to check out his YouTube channel and the host's website.