Tesla’s Big Moves Just Changed EVERYTHING

FSD and Robotaxi Rollout

🚗 Q: What improvements are expected in Tesla's FSD version 14?
A: FSD v14 is anticipated to be 100-1000x better than v13, with 2 million miles between safety-critical disengagements, making it safer than human drivers.

🛣️ Q: How will Tesla expand its FSD rollout?
A: Tesla will expand methodically, starting with cities, then surface area, number of vehicles, and finally removing safety riders to minimize risk and maximize scalability.

🤖 Q: When and where will Tesla likely remove safety monitors for FSD?
A: Safety monitors are expected to be removed in Austin, likely in January, signaling FSD's safety superiority over human drivers.

🏙️ Q: What is the significance of Tesla's Vegas loop testing?
A: The Vegas loop testing, in partnership with the Boring Company, is a critical step in validating FSD technology's safety and scalability before nationwide rollout.

Financial and Market Impact

💰 Q: How will the removal of safety monitors affect Tesla's economics?
A: Removing safety monitors will shift unit economics from negative to extremely positive, enabling amazing margin potential and financial growth.

📈 Q: What impact will FSD v14 have on Tesla's take rates?
A: FSD v14's release in October is expected to significantly improve perception, comfort, and safety, driving up take rates, especially among mass market customers.

🚀 Q: What are the delivery expectations for Tesla in Q4?
A: Tesla is projected to sell 500,000 vehicles in Q4, exceeding previous estimates, partly due to the success of the Model YL in China.

New Product Launches and Events

🚘 Q: When is Tesla's affordable vehicle expected to launch?
A: The affordable vehicle launch is anticipated in Q4 2025, with initial low volumes, according to Matt's financial model.

📅 Q: What key events are expected at Tesla's upcoming shareholder meeting?
A: The November 6th shareholder meeting may include the affordable vehicle launch, Cyber Cab production start, Roadster Semi demo, and Optimus 3 dancing.

AI and Investment

🧠 Q: What AI-related investment is Tesla considering?
A: Tesla is considering an investment in XAI, which will be part of the upcoming shareholder vote.

User Experience and Safety

👀 Q: How will autonomous vehicles change the user experience?
A: AVs will allow users to relax, work, play games, watch movies, and socialize while the car drives safely, flipping the script on distracted driving.

Regulatory and Rollout Strategy

📊 Q: How is Tesla balancing safety and rollout speed for FSD?
A: Tesla is carefully managing the rollout to balance initial bad reactions to accidents with the moral obligation to deploy a system objectively safer than human drivers.

Market Positioning and Growth

🌐 Q: What is Tesla's strategy for expanding Robotaxi coverage?
A: Elon stated Robotaxis could cover 50% of the US population by year-end, reflecting the system's capability rather than operational rollout plans.

Product Success and Demand

🇨🇳 Q: How successful has the Model YL been in China?
A: The Model YL in China has seen 100% of orders sold out, leading to an expected surge in Q4 deliveries.

Government Incentives

💵 Q: How are government incentives affecting Tesla's sales?
A: The IRA credit is expected to drive additional demand, potentially adding 20-50,000 vehicle sales in Q4.

Marketing and Perception

📣 Q: How will Tesla market its new FSD capabilities?
A: Tesla plans to market FSD v14 aggressively to increase margin and improve public sentiment, focusing on comfort and safety improvements.

Future Technology Demonstrations

🕺 Q: What technology demonstrations are expected at the shareholder meeting?
A: The meeting may include demonstrations of the Cyber Cab, Roadster Semi, and Optimus 3 dancing.

Investment Strategy

💼 Q: Why are some supporting Tesla's potential investment in XAI?
A: Supporters cite potential synergies and valuation growth in the AI sector as reasons for Tesla to invest in XAI.

Valuation Projections

📊 Q: What is the outlook for Tesla's valuation?
A: Tesla's valuation is expected to continue growing due to its dominant position in the AI sector and potential for future valuation growth.

 

FSD and Autonomy Progress

🚗 Tesla's FSD version 14 is expected to be 100-1000x better than version 13, with a 10x parameter increase and safety critical disengagement every 2 million miles.

🔍 The removal of safety monitors in FSD version 14 will signal that Tesla's technology is definitively safer than human drivers, allowing for extremely positive unit economics.

🛣️ Tesla's FSD version 14 is projected to be 2-3 times safer than human drivers, with an accident every 1.5-2 million miles compared to human drivers' 500,000 miles.

🌏 Tesla's FSD launch in Australia and New Zealand, Robotaxi expansion in Austin, and Vegas loop testing are massive steps for autonomy and growth.

Robotaxi and Scaling Strategy

🚕 Tesla aims to have 1 million robotaxis on the road by the end of next year, requiring significant regulatory approval and operational ramp-up.

📈 The robotaxi system can scale instantly to a large number of cars once comfort level is reached, making gradual deployment unnecessary.

🔄 Tesla's FSD roll-out strategy involves careful initial deployment with safety monitors, followed by gradual removal as the system becomes more familiar in each city.

Model Y and China Market

🇨🇳 Tesla's Model YL success in China is expected to double orders to 130,000 units by next year, with deliveries coming soon.

🌍 The new Model YL is built to global standards, allowing for export to multiple geographies, including Europe and Canada.

🏭 Tesla's Gigafactory Berlin has already built 100,000 Model Y's in a limited number of months, with a new model launching imminently.

Shareholder Meeting and Investments

📅 Tesla's proxy vote includes crucial dates: September 8th (date of record) and November 6th (shareholder vote).

💼 Tesla's investment in XAI is a monetary investment with potential for 20x growth in 5 years, making it a must-vote for shareholders.

🤝 The XAI investment is expected to be a share swap with Elon Musk giving up most shares to gain more Tesla shares and influence.

Future Products and Launches

🚙 Tesla's affordable vehicle launch is expected in Q4 2025, with low volumes this year but significant impact next year.

🚛 Cyber Cab production is expected to start in 2025, with a demo of the Roadster Semi planned for the shareholder meeting.

🤖 The shareholder meeting will feature Optimus 3 dancing and immediate ordering availability for the new affordable vehicle.

AI and Technology Integration

🧠 Tesla's AI experience and expertise is phenomenal in the real world, with Grock being an amazing way to pass time in robotaxis.

⚡ The XAI investment will provide synergies between Tesla's AI experience and XAI's AI technology, powered by Tesla mega packs.

👁️ FSD v14 is expected to have qualitative experience improvements like superhuman perception and anticipation of driver needs.

Market and Financial Implications

💰 The removal of safety monitors in FSD v14 will allow Tesla to pivot towards amazing margin potential and extremely positive unit economics.

📊 Tesla's Model Y demand in the US is so strong that the company may need to raise prices to keep up with orders.

🔮 The launch of FSD v14 and removal of safety monitors is expected to be a catalyst for broader recognition of Tesla's technology actually working.

Regulatory and Safety Considerations

📋 The sequence of events for FSD rollout is critical, with safety drivers being removed only after the technology is perfectly safe and locally qualified through regulators.

🛡️ Tesla's methodical approach to expanding cities, surface area, and vehicle numbers is a key factor in ensuring safety and regulatory compliance.

 

• 00:00 🚗 Tesla's expansion of FSD launches, robo taxi fleet, and forecast of 130,000 China orders signal massive growth in autonomy and investor opportunities.
  • Tesla made significant moves, including FSD launches in Australia and New Zealand, expanding its robo taxi fleet in Austin, and a forecast of 130,000 China orders, indicating massive growth for autonomy and investors.
  • Matt Smith is in a hotel room in Indiana for an in-person meeting with Financial Rebellion, not a bedroom with his family.
  • Tesla's recent moves, including expanding their Full Self-Driving (FSD) service area and adding more cars to their fleet, are consistent with expectations and reinforce a bullish outlook, particularly with the upcoming V14 update.
  • Excitement around Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology is underestimated, with expectations for significant updates possibly arriving in October.
  • Tesla's Robo Taxi service has expanded from 20 square miles to 170 square miles, now covering areas including Giga Texas and the airport, as of August 26.
• 04:39 🚗 Tesla accelerates autonomous driving with Full Self-Driving feature rollout, safety monitor removal, and potential expansion to more regions, signaling high-margin growth.
  • Tesla should leave safety drivers in during the transition to a new Full Self-Driving model, V14, to mitigate potential enterprise risk and ensure a smooth rollout.
  • Tesla's priority for robo-taxi rollout should focus on expanding to multiple cities, covering more surface area, increasing the number of vehicles, and then optimizing safety features, including the safety rider.
  • Tesla has launched its Full Self-Driving (FSD) Supervised feature in Australia, priced at AUD $10,100, approximately $6,800 USD.
  • Removal of Tesla's safety monitor signals the company believes its vehicles are safer than human-driven ones, potentially turning unit economics from negative to extremely positive.
  • The removal of the safety monitor in Tesla's autonomous vehicles, likely to happen in Austin, is a signal that the company's technology is working and will pave the way for high-margin growth.
  • Analysts predict Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) feature could expand to more regions and potentially be released to the public as early as January if current testing is 2-3 times better than previous versions.
• 14:26 🚗 Tesla's upcoming Full Self-Driving software, V14, is expected to be 2-3 times safer than human drivers, enabling a nationwide rollout of robo-taxi by year's end.
  • Tesla's FSD version 14 is expected to be a significant upgrade, potentially 100 to a thousand times better than version 13, with a 10x parameter increase and Austin improvements.
  • Tesla's upcoming Full Self-Driving software, V14, is expected to be 2-3 times safer than a human driver, with a potential accident rate of 1 per million to 1.5 million miles, enabling a nationwide rollout of robo-taxi by the end of the year.
  • Tesla needs to balance the rollout of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology to ensure it's safer than human driving, while also mitigating the risk of a bad accident that could pause or delay its deployment.
  • Tesla's gradual rollout of autonomous vehicles, with an initial safety rider phase, aims to build public trust and familiarity, eventually leading to widespread adoption and acceptance of their safety record.
  • Tesla's autonomous system can scale instantly to a large number of cars once it reaches a comfort level, and delays in expansion are likely due to ensuring the system is safe and glitch-free.
  • Tesla is rapidly expanding its Full Self-Driving (FSD) beta program, doubling and tripling the number of cars and areas covered, with potential additions of new cities and features, including possible recruitment of new vehicle operators.
• 26:49 🚗 Tesla is testing its Full Self-Driving technology in Las Vegas tunnels and its robo-taxi will offer a comfortable experience with flexibility to work or relax during the ride.
  • The conversation appears to be a frustrated exchange about stock performance, with one person seeking answers and others seemingly dismissive or unresponsive.
  • The speaker disputes the idea that people in autonomous cars will only want a comfortable ride, suggesting that people will likely engage in activities like gaming, reading, or talking to family, just like they do in uncomfortable settings like school buses.
  • The value of in-vehicle visual experiences, like watching movies, depends on road conditions, but audio experiences and basic phone functionality will likely be valuable.
  • Riding in a Tesla robo taxi without live streaming made the experience feel extremely comfortable and enjoyable, allowing passengers to relax, have fun, and engage in various activities like listening to music, sharing content, and playing games.
  • Tesla is set to test out its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology in the tunnels of Las Vegas, a move that has been long-awaited and presents a unique challenge due to the varying lights and shadows.
  • Tesla's robo-taxi will likely offer a similar experience to a plane, providing a functional but not ideal environment for various activities, with the flexibility to work or relax during the ride.
• 33:07 🚗 Tesla shifts focus to robo-taxis, predicting massive growth, and adjusts sales strategy amid regulatory hurdles in Europe and ambitious plans in the US and China.
  • The younger generation will expect and demand in-car entertainment and productivity options, making it a crucial revenue stream for Tesla, and those who don't adapt will lose out.
  • Elon Musk's predictions for robo-taxis covering 50% of the US population by the end of this year and reaching a million units on the road by next year are analyzed, with the speaker questioning the operational feasibility of these claims.
  • The speakers discuss structuring Elon Musk's compensation package with time-bound milestones, and estimate a 5-25% probability of having a million robo-taxis by the end of next year.
  • Tesla is shifting towards a new sales channel with robo-taxis, potentially making up half of its production, pending regulatory approval.
  • Tesla appears to be downgrading its European expansion plans, shifting focus to the US and China, due to administrative hurdles and regulatory issues in Europe.
  • The speakers exchange banter about having and sharing new information about Tesla.
• 42:41 🚗 Tesla's new Model Y L launch is set to double orders to 130,000 monthly, shifting the narrative to growth and attracting mass market buyers, with Q3 and Q4 projections potentially reaching 500,000 units.
  • Tesla China's new Model Y L six-seater is expected to double new order flow to 130,000 units per month by next year due to its successful launch.
  • Tesla has designed a globally qualifying vehicle in Shanghai that can be exported to multiple regions, with potential production in other facilities like Berlin and the US.
  • The speaker questions whether Tesla's successful Y model sales are cannibalizing expected sales or actually increasing overall vehicle sales, potentially altering their financial model.
  • Tesla's narrative is shifting from concerns over flatlining deliveries and margins to growth mode, driven by strong demand for models like the Model Y.
  • Tesla's recent moves are attracting mass market buyers who aren't tech enthusiasts, driving up demand and potentially improving gross margins due to the car's new price competitiveness.
  • The speaker expects Tesla's Q3 and Q4 numbers to be around 500,000, and potentially higher if the FZ14 model is released and marketed aggressively, possibly due to the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) credit incentives.
• 48:47 🚗 Tesla's FSD growth and upcoming shareholder meeting are set to reshape its valuation and future, emphasizing the importance of voting rights for shareholders.
  • Tesla's FSD take rate and subscription growth are expected to significantly increase, making vehicle sales less impactful on valuation in the long term.
  • Tesla plans to promote Full Self-Driving (FSD) version 14 in October, which is expected to have significantly improved performance and "superhuman-like" perception, potentially increasing the take rate among Tesla owners.
  • Tesla shareholders must ensure they retain voting rights by not lending out shares before September 8th (expected date of record) and then vote online after receiving the proxy statement between September 12th-22nd.
  • Tesla shareholders with multiple accounts will have multiple voting control numbers and must vote individually for each, but assistance will be provided to make the process easier.
  • The upcoming Tesla shareholder meeting on November 6th is critical, with multiple votes that will impact the company's next five years, including a compensation plan that could influence its potential to reach a $20 trillion market cap.
  • Contact the speaker directly instead of Matt regarding location-related matters.
• 57:37 🤖 Tesla's potential investment in xAI and upcoming new model unveiling could significantly boost growth and influence, with synergies in AI, vehicles, and robotics.
  • The speakers discuss the potential investment of Tesla in XAI, citing synergies between the two companies, the promising technology of Grock, and significant growth in XAI's valuation, as reasons to support the investment.
  • The speaker supports Tesla investing in xAI, preferably through a share swap, and believes it's a good financial investment that could also increase Elon Musk's influence in Tesla.
  • Tesla's potential investment in xAI could have enormous upside, with synergies between xAI and Tesla's existing businesses in vehicles and robotics, and xAI's potential to develop AGI with vast applications and new business models.
  • Tesla's new model, expected to be a stripped-down version of the Model Y, may be unveiled and made available for order at the shareholder meeting, likely in Q4 2025.
  • Tesla's upcoming milestones include potential launches of new vehicles, Cyber Cab, Roadster Semi, and Optimus, with speculation on the timing and scale of these announcements.
  • The speaker thanks the panel members and promotes their website, herbertong.com, as a comprehensive resource for Tesla investors.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OzAAXkiq3mg