Something BIG Is Happening At Tesla With Phil Beisel

FSD V14 Improvements

🚗 Q: How will FSD V14 compare to V13 in terms of parameters?
A: FSD V14 will have 10x more parameters than V13, allowing for more nuanced decision-making and complex behavior in driving scenarios.

🧠 Q: What architectural changes are expected in FSD V14?
A: V14 will use a mixture of experts architecture with more experts, enabling better focused behavior in specific scenarios and reduced processing time.

⚡ Q: How will FSD V14 perform on Tesla's new hardware?
A: FSD V14 will run on Hardware 4, providing substantial improvement over Hardware 3 with more processing power and headroom for faster inference.

🔍 Q: What improvements in driving capabilities are expected with FSD V14?
A: FSD V14 is expected to be 5-10x better than V13, with more nuanced fine-grained control and concurrent decision-making, making it clearly superior to human driving.

Robotaxi Expansion

🚕 Q: How will Tesla's robotaxi expansion progress?
A: Robotaxi expansion will be slow initially but will scale rapidly once Tesla reaches their desired internal safety score of 3x better than human drivers.

🏙️ Q: What will robotaxi availability look like in urban areas?
A: Robotaxis will be ubiquitous, with vehicles waiting on street corners like traditional cabs, providing abundant supply and minimal wait times.

💰 Q: How will robotaxis compare to car ownership in terms of cost?
A: Robotaxis are expected to be cheaper than owning a car and offer less hassle, potentially leading to a decrease in personal vehicle ownership.

👥 Q: How will different demographics perceive robotaxis?
A: The younger generation will likely view robotaxis as fully natural, while the older generation may see them as unusual and a potential loss of freedom.

AI6 Chip and Tesla's AI Focus

🖥️ Q: What is the significance of Tesla's AI6 deal with Samsung?
A: The deal signals Tesla's position as an AI and autonomy company, focusing on embodied artificial intelligence in both hardware and software.

🤖 Q: What role will the AI6 chip play in Tesla's product lineup?
A: The AI6 chip will be the brains of Optimus and power future robotaxis and Tesla vehicles, serving as a convergence chip for multiple functions.

🔐 Q: How will the AI6 chip enhance Tesla vehicles' capabilities?
A: AI6 will enable local execution of AI models, improving autonomy, safety, and user experience without relying on cloud connectivity.

🏭 Q: What advantages does the exclusive Samsung deal provide Tesla?
A: The deal gives Tesla control over chip design and manufacturing, allowing them to determine outcomes and influence vendors.

Future of Driving and Tesla's Strategy

📉 Q: How might robotaxis impact driver's license acquisition?
A: The prevalence of robotaxis may lead to fewer people wanting to get a driver's license, especially among younger generations.

🔄 Q: How does Tesla's internal development compare to customer-facing versions?
A: Tesla's internal FSD versions are typically months ahead of customer versions, which is standard for software organizations.

📊 Q: What is the "march of nines" in Tesla's FSD development?
A: The "march of nines" refers to incremental improvements in each FSD version, gradually increasing the nuance and precision of driving behaviors.

🔮 Q: How might Tesla's focus shift in the future regarding vehicle sales?
A: Tesla's focus on selling automobiles may diminish over time as they lean more into AI and robotaxi services.

Tesla's Competitive Advantage

🏆 Q: How does Tesla's approach to AI development compare to competitors?
A: Tesla's vertical integration and control over chip design give them a competitive advantage in determining AI outcomes.

📈 Q: What makes Tesla's AI strategy a bullish signal for investors?
A: Tesla's focus on AI and vertical integration is seen as a positive indicator for the company's future prospects and competitive position.

🔬 Q: How does Tesla's data collection strategy contribute to FSD development?
A: Tesla's vast fleet allows for continuous data collection and real-world testing, enabling rapid improvements in FSD capabilities.

🌐 Q: How does Tesla's FSD compare to other autonomous driving systems?
A: Tesla's FSD is considered to be advancing more rapidly than competitors, with a focus on generalized self-driving rather than geofenced areas.

FSD Version 14 Advancements

🧠 FSD v14 will have 10x more parameters than v13, resulting in 10x more nodes, connections, weights, and biases in the neural network.

🚗 The v14 neural network will be divided into experts for specific scenarios like city driving, highway driving, rain, and night, using a mixture of experts architecture.

⚡ Despite being 10x larger, v14 will run on the same hardware and train in the same time as v13 due to optimized inference and expert weights.

🤯 V14 is expected to demonstrate 10x more nuanced behavior in driving situations due to its increased number of thinking points and connections.

Performance and Testing

🏆 Tesla's FSD v14 is predicted to be 5-10x better than v13 and clearly superior to human driving, according to Phil Beisel.

🕰️ There will be a 3-6 month gap between internal testing and public release of FSD v14.

🔬 Tesla will focus on addressing critical incidents and safety situations in the long tail of driving scenarios.

🚀 The company will expand robotaxi operations slowly at first, then rapidly once they "hit the scale button" based on internal safety scores.

AI6 Chip and Future Implications

💻 Tesla's AI6 deal with Samsung signals the company's commitment to being an AI and autonomy leader.

🧠 AI6 will be the "brains" of Optimus, robotaxis, and Tesla vehicles, offering performance comparable to Nvidia GPUs.

👁️ The chip will enable advanced vision and inference capabilities beyond driving, such as identifying potential dangers on streets.

📱 AI6 will allow local execution of Grok models in vehicles, even without internet access.

Robotaxi and Business Strategy

🚕 Tesla's robotaxi service aims to provide abundant supply and minimal wait times, making it an attractive alternative to car ownership.

🏭 The Cybertruck is designed for operational efficiency, with less expensive parts and high energy efficiency, making it ideal for robotaxi service.

📈 Successful operation in three cities without Tesla drivers could trigger rapid expansion to 30 or more cities.

🤖 Tesla may focus on robotaxis as their primary product, potentially never selling Optimus to end customers.

Industry Impact and Future Outlook

📉 A decline in driver's license acquisition suggests a shift away from traditional car ownership.

🌐 Tesla's approach differs from competitors like Waymo, focusing on scalability and wide-area deployment.

🔄 The company's vertical integration and control of the technology stack give it a significant advantage in the autonomous vehicle market.

💼 AI6's capabilities could enable massive utility in manufacturing and labor replacement across various industries.

Investor Perspective

📊 The AI6 chip and robotaxi focus are considered bullish signals for Tesla investors.

🔍 Phil Beisel emphasizes the importance of focusing on significant signals rather than market noise when evaluating Tesla's progress.

🔮 The convergence of AI, robotics, and transportation in Tesla's strategy positions the company for potential long-term market dominance.

🚗 Tesla's auto sales may diminish over time as the company shifts focus to robotaxi and AI-driven services.

• 00:00 🤖 Tesla is developing a massive new AI model, "version 14", to enable significant advancements in Full Self-Driving technology and expand its robotaxi business.
  • Tesla is building confidence in its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, signaling a significant shift towards AI and autonomy, with plans to operate in multiple cities without human intervention and expand its robotaxi business.
  • Tesla is working on a new AI model, referred to as "version 14", which is expected to have 10x the number of parameters as the previous model, allowing for significant improvements in its capabilities.
  • Tesla is increasing the neural network parameter count by 10x in version 14 to achieve more nuanced behavior and better driving outcomes by allowing for more thinking points and connections.
  • Tesla is likely developing a larger neural network, version 14, that can run on hardware 4, enabling features like robo-taxis and advanced driver-assistance systems in customer cars.
  • Tesla is working on a significantly larger AI model, potentially 10x bigger, that can run on Hardware 4, and they can test and iterate on candidate builds using small training data and testing on their hardware.
  • The size of the training data only affects the time it takes to fine-tune a neural network's parameters, not its performance once trained.
• 16:30 🚀 Tesla is making significant advancements in autonomous driving with potential upgrades to hardware, software, and expansion of Full Self-Driving technology.
  • Tesla's upcoming version 14 may be compatible with hardware 4, a significant development as it would enable substantial processing upgrades, potentially 4-10x more powerful than hardware 3.
  • Tesla's development of AI5 and robo taxi capabilities on existing hardware doesn't indicate an inability to achieve these goals, but rather a continuous improvement process driven by software advancements and optimization.
  • Increasing the size and capability of Tesla's autonomous driving models enables a significant upgrade from basic to highly nuanced and capable driving, comparable to going from a grandma driving to an F1 driver.
  • Tesla's Full Self-Driving software improves simultaneously across all vehicles once one car reaches a higher level of capability, with internal versions already ahead of customer releases by months.
  • Phil Beisel believes he can gauge the truth about Tesla's developments, including autonomy, by listening to the VP's confident tone and reading between the lines of engineers' posts.
  • Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology in Austin and the Bay Area is several versions ahead, with potential expansion to more areas, including the speaker's neighborhood.
• 26:15 🚗 Tesla is rapidly expanding its Full Self-Driving "Taxi" service across the US, shifting from technical development to operational deployment in multiple cities with plans for autonomous vehicles without human employees.
  • Tesla is rapidly expanding its Full Self-Driving (FSD) or "Taxi" service across the US, ahead of competitors like Waymo, with varying operational approaches in different regions, such as supervised drivers in the Bay Area and observers in Austin.
  • Tesla is taking a cautious approach to its autonomous driving development, prioritizing safety and deliberately limiting its testing in Austin to avoid potential mistakes that could have a significant impact.
  • Tesla is building confidence in the technical achievement of Full Self-Driving (FSD) by focusing on and validating the technology in Austin, following a similar process done in the Bay Area.
  • Tesla is shifting from a technical phase to an operational phase, involving hiring staff to manage a ride-share network, dealing with customer issues, and navigating regulatory compliance.
  • Tesla is likely to rapidly expand its operations to 6-12 cities within the next year with autonomous vehicles, without human employees in the cars.
  • Tesla is preparing to scale production of CyberCab, with plans to debut it soon, leveraging its operational cost efficiency and manufacturing capabilities to rapidly deliver the vehicles.
• 34:08 🚗 Tesla's ride-sharing and robo-taxi network may revolutionize transportation, disrupt private vehicle sales, and transform the industry in the next 1-5 years.
  • Projecting technology adoption and applying Moore's Law helps to envision Tesla's future, leading to enthusiasm about its potential in the next 1-5 years.
  • Tesla's ride-sharing business will likely disrupt and transform the transportation industry, affecting private vehicle sales and rendering traditional driver's licenses less necessary.
  • Younger generations, like the speaker's 7-year-old nephew, may find driving to be less exciting and less necessary as they grow up with autonomous vehicles.
  • With Tesla's robo-taxi network, people can expect to see numerous self-driving cars readily available, such as waiting on street corners, making transportation convenient and abundant.
  • Tesla's robo-taxi service, with minimal friction and potentially lower costs than car ownership, may revolutionize transportation and significantly expand by the end of the year, possibly reaching 50% of the US population.
  • Tesla's population dispersion goal is that 50% of the US population could experience something, depending on the city.
• 39:50 🚗 Tesla is fine-tuning its technology, addressing technical issues, and preparing for a potential robo-taxi launch, with a focus on scaling safely and surpassing human capabilities.
  • Tesla is methodically addressing technical issues with their product, fine-tuning and testing new builds, to reach a point where they can scale, likely for a robo-taxi launch.
  • Tesla's robo-taxi and FSD systems will likely see a consistent number of incidents, but with decreasing severity as they address critical problems and work through a long tail of less critical issues.
  • Tesla uses a set of key performance indicators (KPIs) to measure safety scores and will likely hit the "scale button" when they meet their internal objectives, achieving a safety score that surpasses human capabilities by a certain factor.
  • Tesla's rollout of autonomous services, such as robo-taxi, depends on operational aspects like regulatory compliance, infrastructure, and charging capacity, which are being addressed as Elon Musk presses to expand into more markets.
  • Tesla has designed the Cybertruck for manufacturability, operational efficiency, and cost-effectiveness, and if it succeeds in one city without safety monitors, it will signify a major win for the company.
  • Tesla's scalable technology and pricing control give it a significant competitive advantage over others, such as Uber and Google, in the autonomous vehicle market.
• 48:52 🤖 Tesla is shifting focus from auto to autonomous tech, with advancements in FSD, AI, and robotics, potentially transforming industries with massive utility value.
  • Tesla's Full Self-Driving technology has made significant progress, with version 13 potentially being a level five autonomous driving platform, and is expected to make a big difference in the near future.
  • Tesla's deal with Samsung for the AI6 chip is a significant signal that the company is heavily investing in AI and autonomy, specifically for its Optimus, robo-taxi, and other robotic projects.
  • Tesla's exclusive deal with Samsung foundry in Texas signals a push into vertical integration and AI, potentially leading to in-house chip production and leaving competitors behind.
  • Tesla is shifting its focus from being an auto company to developing autonomous technologies, such as robot taxis, with its cars potentially becoming a platform for its Full Self-Driving software.
  • Tesla's advancements in AI, including the deal with Samsung for AI6 and the development of Optimus, a humanoid robot, signal a significant shift towards autonomy and embodied AI, which will have massive utility value and transform various industries.
  • A device can perform various tasks, such as washing dishes, taking care of a family member, cutting the lawn, and driving.
• 59:37 🤖 Tesla is advancing AI capabilities with projects like Optimus, FSD, and AI6, which will enable local execution of advanced AI models and transform industries.
  • Tesla's Optimus, expected to launch around 2028-2029, will likely utilize one, two, or three AI6 chips, enabling advanced compute capabilities and separate functions.
  • Tesla's upcoming AI6 enables local execution of advanced AI models, like a significantly expanded vision system and FSD, on the vehicle, even without internet connectivity.
  • Understanding Tesla's technical aspects helps investors feel more calm and solidifies their investment thesis, despite the noise and negativity from online comments.
  • Tesla's developments in FSD, Roboaxi, and Optimus AI are extremely technical, requiring in-depth understanding to grasp, unlike typical market trends in consumer goods.
  • The current AI revolution, accounting for 1-1.5% of GDP, is comparable to the 1880s railroad revolution, which accounted for 6% of GDP, and its impact is easily understandable and visible, like moving people and goods efficiently.
  • Understanding AI is complex and difficult for non-experts to discern fact from fiction, requiring trust in those explaining it at a fundamental level.
• 01:06:38 🤖 Phil Beisel shares exclusive insights on Tesla's Optimus and robo-taxi, including a potentially huge development, offering valuable information for investors.
  • The host appreciates Phil Beisel's insights on Tesla, particularly on Optimus and robo-taxi, and plans to have him back on to discuss more, including a potentially huge development with Optimus.
  • The video provides important information for Tesla investors to understand and use against market noise.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zFZzF2jZM_k