Humanoid robots and emerging technologies like AI may replace human labor by 2030, potentially leading to significant economic, social, and geopolitical changes, including widespread unemployment, but also possible abundance and increased productivity
Questions to inspire discussion
Preparing for the AI and Robotic Economy
🤖 Q: How can individuals prepare for the upcoming AI and robotic economy?
A: Individuals should consider investing in productive assets like autonomous trucks or humanoid robots, and explore opportunities for company ownership to secure future income streams.
💼 Q: What should businesses do to adapt to the rise of humanoid robots?
A: Businesses should rethink their business models around humanoid robots as suppliers, service providers, or users, considering the $200,000 financial advantage of one robot over human work.
Economic Implications
💰 Q: What is the projected cost of humanoid robot labor by 2030?
A: By 2030, humanoid robots are expected to work for $14/hour, which is cheaper than most human labor, based on conservative assumptions including costs for human robot care.
⏱️ Q: How does humanoid robot productivity compare to human workers?
A: One humanoid robot can replace 3.5 people at 100% speed or 7 humans at 200% speed, working 6,600 hours/year compared to a human's typical 2,000 hours.
Government Strategies
🏛️ Q: How can governments support citizens during the transition to an AI-driven economy?
A: Governments should consider subsidizing company ownership, helping job losers invest in autonomous assets, and potentially giving newborns $100,000 to invest over 60 years.
🌐 Q: What economic alliances might form in response to humanoid robot labor?
A: Non-military economic alliances like the European Union or "Merkosaur" could form to maintain independence and control over labor forces amid humanoid robot dependency.
Global Competition
🇨🇳 Q: What is China's goal regarding humanoid robots?
A: The Chinese government aims for their companies to become market leaders in humanoid robots by 2027, developing a value chain that can think, learn, and innovate.
🏭 Q: When are humanoid robots expected to be mass-produced?
A: Humanoid robots are projected to be produced at scale by 2035-2040, costing about 5% of a regular car with a marginal cost of $3,000 per unit for software.
Societal Impact
👥 Q: How will the job market be affected by humanoid robots?
A: Humanoid robots will replace human labor from the lower end first, filling a 60-80 million person global shortage, then move to more qualified tasks, eventually replacing skilled workers like plumbers.
🌍 Q: What challenges does Europe face with the rise of humanoid robots?
A: Europe's economies, based on 90%+ people needing jobs, will face significant disruption as humanoid robots replace human labor, compounded by Europe's lagging AI capabilities.
Economic Redistribution
💸 Q: What alternative to universal basic income is suggested for resource redistribution?
A: A negative income tax is proposed as a more efficient way to redistribute resources, paying out only to those in need and decreasing payouts as we approach an abundance world.
🏢 Q: How might governments finance the transition to an AI and robotic economy?
A: Governments could invest taxpayer money in companies on behalf of citizens, similar to the Trump administration's 10% investment in Intel, and distribute dividends or earnings to citizens.
Key Insights
Economic Impact
🤖 By 2030, humanoid robots could work for just $14/hour, potentially replacing human labor with one bot capable of doing the work of 3.5 people at double speed of 7 humans.
💼 Humanoid robots will initially replace lower-end jobs (dirty, dangerous, difficult, dull), filling vacant positions due to a 60-80 million person global shortage, before progressing to easier and more qualified tasks.
📉 Europe faces a potential "horror scenario" of economic breakdown and deflation due to the combination of aging populations, migrant issues, and humanoid robots replacing human labor.
Geopolitical Landscape
🇨🇳 The Chinese government has directed companies to become market leaders in humanoid robots by 2027, including the entire value chain of thinking, learning, and innovation.
🌍 Europe's AI capabilities are not cutting-edge, posing a significant geostrategic challenge as they compete with the US and China in humanoid robotics development.
🏭 By 2030, Europe may face a robot labor dependency crisis as China strengthens its economy by producing its own robots and parts.
Technological Advancements
🧠 The speed of learning for humanoid robots is unprecedented, with fleet learning and self-learning allowing rapid improvement and knowledge sharing across robot networks.
🖥️ Humanoid robots will become commodities like computers, with their work potentially becoming the largest part of the world economy.
Societal Adaptation
💰 To build a just society in the age of AI and robotic labor, governments should consider subsidizing company ownership and providing negative income tax to those in need.
🏢 Companies must rethink their business models around humanoids as suppliers, service providers, or users to prepare for the AI and robotic world economy.
📊 Governments should invest in companies on behalf of citizens to distribute dividends and earnings, ensuring economic participation in the robot-driven economy.
🌐 The transition to an abundance world through increased productivity with humanoid robots will be challenging, requiring forward-thinking governments and businesses to prepare early.
Over The Horizon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAs1iDT1Q3c
#ArtificialLabor #SingularityReady #PreSingularity #Abundance #StarupSocieties #AbundanceSociety
XMentions: @HabitatsDigital @Abundance360 @RoydenDSouza @PeroMicic @elonmusk
Clips
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00:00 🤖 By 2030, humanoid robots could be widely adopted in various industries, with forecasts suggesting exponential growth and potential disruption of human work.
- The humanoid bot industry is rapidly advancing, driven by progress in large language models and reasoning models, and is expected to disrupt businesses that involve physical movement or production.
- By 2030, humanoid robots could be widely adopted in various industries, with forecasts suggesting a rapid ramp-up, such as Elon Musk's goal of producing 1 million bots in five years.
- By 2030, production of robots is expected to reach 3-5 million units per year, with exponential growth potentially leading to tens of millions of robots being produced annually by 2035-2040.
- The conversation begins with a host asking a guest to summarize and explain a post they found impressive.
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05:14 🤖 By 2030, robots could cost $14/hour, making human work obsolete with a potential "robot as a service" model.
- The development of humanoid robots raises questions about their physical and cognitive capabilities, timing, and cost.
- The real-world hourly cost of robots is projected to be around $14 US per hour by 2030, with potential decreases to $12, $10, and even under $1, making human work obsolete.
- Companies will likely adopt a "robot as a service" model, where they pay a monthly or hourly fee for robots that includes hardware, software, services, and maintenance, rather than purchasing them outright.
- A robot's production cost could be around $30,000 for physical parts and $3,000 for software, but this cost may decrease as production scales up.
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10:03 🤖 By 2030, robots and AI may replace human labor in various industries, potentially leading to a crisis of widespread unemployment and societal breakdown, or a new era of abundance and increased productivity.
- RAS robots, or robots as a service, are expected to replace human labor in manufacturing, production, logistics, and services, with potential future applications in household use.
- Humanoid robots, like Optimus, will first fill vacant jobs, then progressively replace human labor in various tasks, from simple to more qualified jobs, potentially even replacing skilled workers like plumbers.
- Robots will likely replace humans in all kinds of physical work due to cost advantages, making it difficult for businesses to compete if they choose to keep human employees.
- China aims to be a market leader in humanoid robots by 2027, capable of thinking, learning, and innovating, posing a significant challenge that Western countries may be able to compete with.
- Replacing humans with robots in Europe will solve certain labor force problems, such as aging populations and unfulfilled jobs, but also create new issues, given that 90% of the economy is based on people needing a job to earn a living.
- The rapid automation of jobs by AI and robotics by 2030 will lead to a crisis where either society breaks down due to widespread unemployment and loss of tax revenue, or a new era of abundance emerges through increased productivity and deflation.
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18:20 🤖 Emerging technologies like AI and robotics may lead to an age of abundance, but also pose significant economic and geopolitical risks if not developed and managed carefully.
- Humans are likely to experience turbulent times, possibly decades, of peril and pain before reaching a future age of abundance due to shortsightedness and unpreparedness for massive transformations brought about by emerging technologies.
- Europe faces a potential geopolitical problem with China's target to lead in AI and robotics by 2027, particularly in deploying AI-enabled bots in European markets.
- Europe risks losing economic benefits of increased productivity if it relies on buying robots from the US or China instead of developing and investing in its own robotics industry.
- The discussion around AI models overlooks the importance of a humanoid labor force and the geostrategic implications of controlling AI-enabled bots and their training data.
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23:15 🤖 Humanoid robots may replace human labor by 2030, significantly impacting geopolitics, wealth distribution, and societal stability, and potentially leading to a compromise on standard of living.
- Replacing human labor with humanoid robots has significant implications for geopolitics, national independence, and societal stability, beyond just production costs.
- China's strategy of insourcing and strengthening its economy is shrinking the business of delivering machines and parts, forcing Western suppliers to focus on their home markets.
- Increased productivity from humanoid robots may help maintain current wealth levels, but a compromise on standard of living is likely as work and wealth distribution change.
- Robots will soon be capable of performing most lower-level physical work, learning quickly and retaining skills without forgetting, making human competition impossible.
- Nvidia is working with companies like Foxcon to develop digital twins of manufacturing units, simulating everything from tooling to bot functions, which has significant implications for the manufacturing sector and labor control.
- A strong economic alliance between the US and Europe, similar to the European Union or Merkosaur, is a possible scenario if the US prioritizes its relationship with Europe.
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31:24 🤖 Robots will replace human workers by 2030, making $14/hour economically viable, and experts suggest becoming owners of productive assets to mitigate negative employment impacts.
- One robot can replace 3.5 human workers, producing a financial advantage, as it can operate for 6,600 hours per year at a significantly lower cost.
- Robots will be economically viable to replace human workers, with estimated break-even points as low as $14/hour, and their increasing work speed will further accelerate adoption.
- To mitigate the negative impacts of AI and robotics on employment, as many people as possible need to become owners of productive assets and companies well-prepared for the new economy.
- People, especially in Europe, China, and Southeast Asia, prioritize safe savings over investing in the stock market, sacrificing potential 7-8% annual profits for lower, more stable returns.
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36:47 🤖 Governments and experts explore alternatives to traditional employment, such as universal basic income and wealth redistribution, as automation and AI threaten to replace human work.
- Governments are inefficient at allocating resources, raising concerns about their ability to redistribute wealth in a future where human labor is replaced by robots and AI.
- To address job displacement by automation, the speaker suggests providing people with income through methods like subsidizing ownership of companies, helping workers invest in automation technologies, and giving every newborn a significant amount of money.
- A combination of building wealth through productive assets and implementing a negative income tax, rather than an unconditional basic income, could help address the issue of human work ending due to automation.
- A universal basic income can be efficiently provided through a negative income tax, eliminating the need for large administrative bodies like social security.
- The government should invest taxpayer money in companies on behalf of citizens and distribute earnings as an alternative to a social net, but private initiative is preferable to government entrepreneurship for efficiency and productivity.
- Businesses that move physical objects should rethink their operations now to integrate humanoid robots and AI, imagining a new, optimized model to stay competitive.
- 44:58 🤝 The conversation between Ryan and Perl concludes with a suggestion to read Pero's post and watch his YouTube video for thought-provoking content.
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Duration: 0:45:33
Publication Date: 2025-09-13T09:02:21Z
WatchUrl:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DAs1iDT1Q3c
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