Universal Basic Income is a necessary solution to mitigate the economic disruption and inequality caused by the displacement of jobs due to AI and automation
Questions to inspire discussion
Economic Impact
🌐 Q: How many jobs are expected to be displaced by AI and automation by 2030?
A: Up to 300 million jobs are projected to be displaced by AI, robots, and automation across industries by 2030.
💰 Q: What economic shift has occurred since the 1970s?
A: A $79 trillion shift to the top 1% has decoupled productivity growth from income growth, exacerbating inequality and eroding democracies worldwide.
🤖 Q: What is the "robot dividend" concept?
A: The robot dividend suggests that automation benefits should be shared with society through a UBI, as the original R&D funding came from taxpayer dollars and robots are doing human jobs.
Universal Basic Income (UBI)
💵 Q: What is a suggested starting point for implementing UBI?
A: Start a universal basic income at $200-$300/month for everyone, regardless of work status, to provide a stable floor and alleviate hunger and poverty.
📈 Q: How can UBI be indexed to benefit society as automation increases?
A: The UBI dividend can be indexed to productivity, so as automation produces more, humans benefit more and can purchase what machines are doing.
🧠 Q: How can UBI impact mental health?
A: UBI can improve mental health by providing solid stability and security, reducing stress and economic insecurity caused by automation.
Future of Work
👨🍳 Q: How might human labor be valued in an automated future?
A: Human labor will become the new "organic" premium, with people paying more for human touch and creativity in areas like sushi restaurants, hand surgery, and mental health services.
🎨 Q: What skills should retraining programs focus on in the future?
A: Retraining programs should focus on non-productive skills like enjoying life, creativity, and human interaction, as AI and robots will excel in cognitive and mind labor.
💼 Q: How does social support impact entrepreneurship?
A: Countries with strong social support like Finland see increased entrepreneurship, as people can take risks without worrying about healthcare, education, and retirement.
AI and Society
👥 Q: How do AI adoption rates vary across generations?
A: Kids and teenagers adopt new technologies quickly but are also the most skeptical and concerned about the environmental impact and social implications of AI.
🌍 Q: Which country might be the first to implement a basic income program?
A: China may be the first to implement a basic income program, which would be universal but not necessarily unconditional, to solve their demand problem and create a strong middle class.
🇺🇸 Q: How could implementing UBI benefit the US in global competition?
A: Implementing UBI in the US could be a strategic value against China, potentially accelerating AI adoption and demand creation if people are not worried about the impacts.
UBI Experiments and Misconceptions
📅 Q: What is the impact of UBI on work hours in experiments?
A: The 2% reduction in hours worked in UBI experiments is equivalent to 8 days of paid vacation, which is the absolutely lowest globally.
🏘️ Q: How have basic income experiments impacted local economies?
A: Basic income experiments in saturation pilots have shown that providing UBI to entire villages or towns creates customers for entrepreneurs, enabling them to start and sustain businesses.
Funding UBI
💹 Q: What alternative approach to funding UBI has been suggested?
A: Sam Altman's approach suggests funding UBI through a sovereign wealth fund by issuing new stock into the fund each year, which can then issue a dividend to everyone.
🏭 Q: How might humanoid robot companies support UBI?
A: Humanoid companies would likely support UBI as a way to transfer income from robots to the public good, with precedence for taxing equipment like laptops and machining equipment.
Global Perspectives
🇪🇺 Q: What challenges do Europeans face in the global AI and robotics competition?
A: Europeans are finding it difficult to compete with the US in software and China in manufacturing, and need to adapt to the geopolitical struggle for AI and robotics supremacy.
🌐 Q: What is the "AI event horizon" and its potential impact?
A: The AI event horizon is approaching, and economists struggle to understand and model its huge impact on the economy and the effects of automation.
Key Insights
Economic Impact and Job Displacement
- 🌪️ By 2030, AI, robots, and automation are projected to displace up to 300 million jobs, potentially causing widespread economic disruption and social unrest.
- 💸 Since the 1970s, a $79 trillion wealth shift to the top 1% has occurred, decoupling productivity growth from income growth for the bottom 90%.
- 🏭 The combination of AI and robotics is scaling rapidly, with half a million robots installed worldwide since 1961, and companies aiming to produce millions by 2030.
Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a Solution
- 💰 UBI is proposed as a "robot dividend" to ensure everyone benefits from AI-driven productivity gains, rather than just the top 1%.
- 🇨🇳 China is expected to be the first country to implement a fully universal but not fully unconditional basic income, potentially creating pressure for other nations to follow.
- 💡 A $200-300/month UBI floor could alleviate hunger and fear of poverty, regardless of employment status.
Future of Work and Skills
- 🧠 Human labor may become the new "organic," commanding a premium for its unique value as robots and AI become more efficient.
- 🎨 Retraining will be crucial, focusing on creativity, problem-solving, and human skills like empathy and collaboration that are difficult to automate.
- 🚀 Entrepreneurship is likely to increase with UBI, as people gain financial security to take risks and start businesses.
Societal and Mental Health Impacts
- 🧘 Mental health may improve with UBI, reducing stress from economic insecurity and enabling AI chatbots to provide more effective therapy support.
- 🌍 The geopolitical struggle between the US and China on AI and robotics will have global repercussions, impacting countries worldwide.
Automation and Job Market Changes
- 👨🏭 The "courting out of the middle class" has been ongoing for decades, with automation first replacing middle-class manufacturing jobs and now targeting lower-paying jobs.
- 📉 The idea that "robots will create new jobs" is considered a dangerous myth, as job displacement outpaces job creation in the AI era.
Policy and Implementation Challenges
- 💼Sam Altman's approach of creating a sovereign wealth fund issuing new stock to fund a dividend for all citizens is proposed as an alternative to direct taxation of technology.
- 🇸🇪 Countries like Sweden with high tax burdens and existing social benefits may find it more acceptable to implement a universal and unconditional UBI.
Long-term Consequences and Preparedness
- 🌀 The "event horizon" analogy suggests we're approaching a point of no return, beyond which the effects of AI and automation could be catastrophic without proper planning.
- 🛠️ Developing countries need to brace for the impact of AI and robotics while also seeking ways to participate in the benefits by developing their own industries and software.
- ⏰ The rapid advancement of AI and automation necessitates urgent action to implement UBI and other protective measures before widespread job displacement occurs.
Over The Horizon: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHBjyzC7ODQ
#SingularityReady #PreSingularity #Abundance #StarupSocieties #AbundanceSociety
XMentions: @HabitatsDigital @Abundance360 @RoydenDSouza @PeroMicic @GoingBallistic5 @anatomyumea @scottsantens @ITSAfoundation @sama
Clips
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00:00 🤖 Universal Basic Income is necessary to mitigate mass inequality and job loss caused by AI and automation displacing 300 million workers by 2030.
- By 2030, an estimated 300 million workers will be displaced by AI and automation, exacerbating mass inequality, making universal basic income a necessary lifeline for humanity.
- People in areas with struggling economies have been suffering for decades, and ignoring their plight while assuming new jobs and skills will solve the issue is unrealistic.
- Universal Basic Income can mitigate the negative impacts of automation and job loss, and concerns that it would make people inactive or less motivated to work are unfounded and nonsensical.
- Universal Basic Income experiments, like a 3-year pilot that resulted in an average 8 days of paid vacation, show minimal impact on work hours, yet people still fear it will make others lazy, often believing their own jobs are secure from automation.
- Automation, particularly with the combination of AI and robotics, is accelerating rapidly and will disrupt society on a massive scale, making it essential for people to wake up and understand the need for Universal Basic Income.
- A recession affects others, but a depression is personal, and people will only take notice and be concerned when they are directly impacted.
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13:17 🤖 Automation and AI may displace billions of jobs by 2030, making Universal Basic Income necessary to mitigate economic disruption and ensure humans can afford the products of automation.
- The rapid scaling of AI and robots, potentially reaching billions by 2030, will have a huge and unpredictable impact on the economy, necessitating a game plan for Universal Basic Income now.
- Automation is increasingly threatening lower-paying jobs in the service sector and consumer-based economy, not just middle-class manufacturing jobs, which could lead to widespread job displacement and economic disruption.
- Automation and robots are likely to replace high-paying jobs first, while low-paying jobs may be less automatable due to lower return on investment, leading to a potential need for universal basic income to address massive unemployment.
- Universal Basic Income is necessary to ensure that humans benefit from and can afford the products and services produced by automation, as robots and AI displace human jobs and increase productivity.
- As automation and AI replace human labor, implementing Universal Basic Income (UBI) and taxing "robots as a service" could help mitigate growing inequality and provide a financial safety net.
- As automation replaces jobs, people may need training to enjoy life and avoid boredom if they choose not to work.
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26:38 🤖 As AI and robots take over jobs, Universal Basic Income is necessary to provide stability, security, and allow people to pursue passions without fear of financial instability.
- The societal expectation of working hard to have meaning and purpose will need to adapt as AI and robotics increasingly take over jobs, making Universal Basic Income a necessary consideration.
- As AI and robots become prevalent, a "human premium" may emerge where people are willing to pay more for human services, particularly in areas requiring a personal touch, but this may only be accessible to a select few.
- Universal Basic Income can improve mental health by providing stability and security, which is crucial as automation increases stress and anxiety, even before job loss occurs.
- With universal basic income, people will have the option to work in jobs they enjoy, rather than out of necessity, and many will continue to work voluntarily in fields they're passionate about.
- With automation, people will work in jobs they enjoy, like chefs or waiters, not for pay, but for personal fulfillment, creating a more enjoyable experience for others.
- Having a universal basic income allows people to take risks and pursue their passions without fear of financial instability.
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33:43 🤖 AI and robots' rapid advancement poses a unique threat to humanity, making Universal Basic Income a necessary solution to mitigate the effects of automation on jobs and economy.
- Finland's socialist system, which provides free education, universal healthcare, and secure pensions, actually fosters entrepreneurship, as people are more willing to take risks and start companies without worrying about basic needs.
- Universal Basic Income can foster a more capitalistic and entrepreneurial economy by not only providing startup capital for entrepreneurs but also creating customers with purchasing power.
- The disruption caused by AI and robots in various sectors, including cognitive work and creativity, differs qualitatively from past technological shifts, posing a unique danger to humanity.
- The speaker believes AI and automation are different from previous technological advancements because they affect cognitive labor, making the current situation uniquely challenging for humanity.
- AI advancements in creative fields like image and video creation, 3D modeling, and gaming will rapidly automate jobs, making many roles obsolete.
- The speaker's 8-9 year old daughter quickly adapted to new technology, creating an animated version of Red Riding Hood using a tool like Chad GBD.
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40:14 🤖 AI and robots are rapidly integrating into society, potentially surpassing human capabilities in various sectors, including medicine, and making universal basic income a pressing necessity.
- Adoption rates of AI tools vary across generations, with younger people, such as kids and teenagers, adopting technologies at different rates and showing preferences for different AI models.
- The younger generation is pushing back against AI, citing moral and environmental concerns, while some people, surprisingly from the left, are in denial about the impacts of AI, similar to climate change denialism.
- Many people are downplaying the current impact of AI, especially in certain sectors, and are in denial about its rapidly growing influence, particularly in entry-level jobs.
- Many people are unaware of and unprepared for the rapid integration of AI and robots into society, unlike in China where such technologies are being normalized through media and public exposure.
- AI will likely surpass human doctors in diagnostics, particularly with imaging, and it's only a matter of time before it becomes the norm.
- AI can potentially alleviate stress and improve efficiency in the medical field, but its adoption is hindered by professionals who fear job loss and want to maintain a supervisory role.
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49:42 💰 Universal Basic Income is crucial for humanity's survival amidst AI and automation, providing financial security and should be implemented at 20-25% of GDP per capita.
- The speaker emphasizes the need for humility in the face of AI's capabilities and discusses the potential of Universal Basic Income, drawing from personal experience with crowdfunded basic income since 2015.
- Having a basic income of $200-300 per month provides a sense of security, freeing one from fear of financial instability, even if not previously in dire straits.
- A universal basic income, even as low as $200 per month, can have a significant security-increasing impact, and implementation can start at a politically feasible amount as long as it's universal and unconditional.
- A Universal Basic Income should be set at 20-25% of GDP per capita, coupling productivity increases with UBI, so everyone benefits from automation.
- Federal spending creates money, whereas taxation removes it from the money supply, making them not equivalent actions despite seeming similar.
- Implementing Universal Basic Income (UBI) through tax reforms, such as replacing the standard deduction with a refundable credit, wealth tax, transaction tax, and taxing land and carbon, can help manage inflation, inequality, and poverty.
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57:30 🤖 Universal Basic Income is necessary to mitigate the impact of AI and robotics on humanity, and its implementation, possibly funded through taxes or sovereign wealth funds, can't wait any longer.
- Humanoid companies are likely considering implementing a way to transfer some of the income generated by their bots to the public good, as it is inevitable that this will eventually happen.
- Taxing labor-saving devices like robots and AI, or implementing a sovereign wealth fund that distributes stock dividends to everyone, could help fund Universal Basic Income and balance the benefits of technological advancements.
- Implementing a universal basic income, possibly funded through consumption taxes like VAT or carbon tax, is necessary and should be unconditional to ensure everyone's basic needs are met.
- The increasing use of AI, robotics, and automation in the US and China will have global repercussions, impacting not only these two economies but also many other countries, particularly those that currently rely on industries that may be heavily automated.
- Countries need to prepare for and adapt to the economic repercussions of AI and robotics, particularly with China's rapid advancements in manufacturing and the US's dominance in software, to avoid being left behind.
- China may implement a universal basic income, potentially as an electronic voucher, which could pressure the US to follow suit and accelerate AI adoption if done strategically.
- 01:10:26 🤝 The conversation concludes with gratitude and appreciation from the host and guests, Scott Santins , Scott Walters and Gustav Anderson.
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Duration: 1:10:47
Publication Date: 2025-09-13T11:35:47Z
WatchUrl:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHBjyzC7ODQ
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