Tesla's potential for autonomous Robotaxis could result in significant profits for vehicle owners and the company, with the next generation dedicated robot taxi being produced at a fraction of the cost of traditional vehicles
Questions to inspire discussion
-
What is the potential impact of Tesla's Robo taxis on the market?
—Tesla's Robo taxis have the potential to significantly impact the market due to the scale of their vehicle fleet and network effects, posing a challenge to Uber and its competitors.
-
What are the potential challenges of Tesla's self-driving technology?
—Tesla's self-driving technology is extremely brittle and can result in embarrassing and dangerous situations when faced with unexpected changes, posing a challenge for the company.
-
How will Tesla's robotaxis affect the ride-sharing industry?
—Tesla's robotaxis will save 70% on driver costs but will incur new costs, potentially increasing the margin from 7% to 12-14% of gross bookings, assuming various factors are successfully managed.
-
What are the potential financial implications of Tesla's robotaxis?
—Tesla's potential to produce significant profit from robotaxis at a low initial investment is economically insane, challenging traditional valuation models for companies like Cruise.
Key Insights
The Economic Impact and Potential Disruption of Tesla's Robotaxis
- 🚗 The insane economics of Robo taxis, where no driver is necessary, will lead Tesla to produce their own dedicated Robo taxis to operate themselves.
- 🚗 Tesla's expertise in high volume production will allow them to pump out the next gen dedicated robot taxi at a staggering rate, potentially disrupting the industry.
- 📈 The emergent quality of the Uber model, where supply and demand are matched and enhanced with price, is a beautiful aspect of the economics of robotaxis.
- 🚗 The unit economics of Tesla's robotaxis and the potential impact on insurance costs could be a game-changer for the industry.
- 📈 Tesla can price Insurance on their products for their customers better than any third party can or ever will be able to do.
- 🚗 Letting the customers own the Teslas that own the fleet is a better alternative, much much much much better.
- 🚕 The cost to use a robo taxi will be much more affordable than the cost of an Uber today.
Tesla's Advantages and Potential Disadvantages in the Robo Taxi Market
- 📈 The analysis and insights from investors Brad Gerstner and Bill Gurley on Tesla FSD have been accurate and informative, contributing to the discussion on the future of autonomous vehicles.
- 🚗 Tesla's confidence in their data Advantage is increasing dramatically, with over a billion miles driven with FSD and adding over a billion miles a month.
- 💀 The potential for Tesla's technology to become a "death machine on wheels" is a serious concern.
- 🚗 Tesla's potential to have double, triple, and quadruple the number of vehicles on roads compared to Uber's drivers creates a significant advantage in the Robo taxi market.
- 🚗 Tesla's potential to be a much bigger brand than Uber and own and operate its own fleet could revolutionize the economics of robotaxis.
#Tesla #Robotaxi
XMentions: @Tesla @StevenMarkRyan @HerbertOng @FutureAza @theJeffLutz @HansCNelson @HabitatsDigital @GoingBallistic5 @DrKnowItAll16 @TeslaBoomerMama @R6Alex @CernBasher
Clips
-
00:00 🚗 Tesla's FSD autonomy robot taxi is advancing rapidly, leading to speculation about a potential Robo taxi event, despite facing layoffs and weak car demand.
- Brad Gersner and Bill Gurley discuss the competition between Tesla's FSD autonomy robot taxi and ride-sharing services like Uber.
- The speaker observed a high number of driverless cars in the city, which was mindboggling and led to eclipse-like experiences for riders.
- Tesla is facing layoffs and weak car demand, but their Full Self-Driving technology is advancing rapidly, leading to speculation about a potential Robo taxi event.
- Elon Musk's recent trip to China and Tesla's focus on autonomy signal their confidence in solving the challenge of self-driving cars.
- Tesla is working on creating a successful fleet of self-driving cars, and there are important factors to consider beyond just technical feasibility.
- Tesla's self-driving technology is extremely brittle and can result in embarrassing and dangerous situations when faced with unexpected changes.
-
07:25 🚗 Tesla's Robo taxis will have a significant impact on the ride-sharing market, potentially partnering with companies like Uber, but the business model may not be scalable and would require significant investment.
- Ride sharing companies face specific rules at airports, and there is a question of whether an imitation model can easily incorporate these deterministic components.
- Tesla's Robo taxis will have a significant impact on the market due to the scale of their vehicle fleet and the network effects, posing a challenge to Uber and its competitors.
- Tesla is looking to create a fleet of self-driving cars for use in ride-sharing services, potentially partnering with companies like Uber, but may also build and operate their own fleet using the Tesla app.
- Tesla's chances of breaking into the ride share market are high, but other companies' high-tech infrastructure and financial models may be a disaster.
- The business model for Tesla robotaxis is not scalable and would require significant investment with a long payback time.
-
12:43 🚗 Tesla's potential for autonomous Robo taxis could result in significant profits for vehicle owners and the company, with the next generation dedicated robot taxi being produced at a fraction of the cost of traditional vehicles.
- Tesla's expensive hardware and profitable vehicle sales, combined with the potential for autonomous Robo taxis, could result in significant profits for vehicle owners and Tesla itself.
- Tesla's next generation dedicated robot taxi will be produced at a fraction of the cost of traditional vehicles, allowing them to utilize cars already owned by customers and avoid fronting the capital for each vehicle.
- Tesla's financials are not looking good, but even companies with no revenue and billion-dollar losses are still valued highly on Wall Street.
- The challenge of matching supply and demand in the ride-sharing industry can be addressed by regulating to higher periods of demand.
- Uber benefits from peak pricing and the expansion of their network, and Tesla may have a similar advantage with their customer base for robotaxis.
-
17:53 🚗 Tesla's robotaxi system could potentially partner with Uber, but there are concerns about the economics, insurance costs, and litigation.
- Competing with Tesla in the robotaxi market would require spending hundreds of billions of dollars and is not feasible given Tesla's existing fleet and business model.
- Tesla owners may have the opportunity to allow their cars to be used for rideshare during peak periods, potentially leading to a partnership between Tesla and Uber.
- To solve the peak demand problem, Tesla could implement a 3p and one piece strategy to flatten demand and potentially create a flywheel of Uber drivers building mini fleets of their own.
- Tesla may launch a standalone robotaxi system, but it will likely need to become an open system, and there are concerns about the unit economics and insurance costs.
- Litigation costs and insurance for robo taxis may be higher than for human drivers due to the broken litigation system in the US.
- A major problem is solved, but not everything, and the speaker avoids taking personal responsibility and makes a valid point.
-
25:16 🚗 Tesla's robotaxis may disrupt the auto insurance industry, but the costs of full self-driving need to be affordable for investors to benefit.
- Tesla is likely to offer insurance for their Robo taxis, using their own data to price it better than any third party.
- Car insurance rates increased by 22% in 2021 due to a decrease in miles driven, leading to an increase in accidents and financial losses for insurance companies.
- Auto insurance companies were losing money and had to raise prices, but now they may be charging too much, and removing drivers from Uber may not lead to as much profit as expected.
- Tesla's Robo taxis are projected to bring in more revenue per mile and per car, but the costs associated with full self-driving are significantly higher.
- The cost of fully autonomous cars needs to be affordable in order for Tesla's robot taxi disruption to matter for investors.
- Tesla's robotaxis will require cleaning and maintenance, which will be a cost for customer-owned fleets and a responsibility for Tesla-owned fleets.
-
33:32 🚗 Tesla's robotaxis could save 70% on driver costs, potentially increasing margin to 12-14% of gross bookings, but uncertainties remain about pricing and competition, with potential for significant profit and disruption in the industry.
- Tesla's robotaxis will save 70% on driver costs but will incur new costs, potentially increasing the margin from 7% to 12-14% of gross bookings, assuming various factors are successfully managed.
- Tesla's robotaxi may not be a threat to Uber, and it will not be financially disruptive in the beginning or middle, but there are uncertainties regarding the price of the car and the potential for underpricing by competitors.
- Tesla's progress in robo-taxi fleets shows the potential for customer-owned Teslas to be a better alternative, with the possibility of driverless cars on the roads in the future.
- China and India have higher road deaths per mile, making it more likely for Tesla's robotaxis to be implemented in those countries due to less regulatory hurdles, while the US is unlikely to clear the way for it.
- Tesla's robotaxi fleet will be extremely challenging for companies like Cruz and Uber to compete with, and Tesla's ability to produce the vehicles at a low cost will make the cost to use a robo taxi much more affordable than Uber today.
- Tesla's potential to produce significant profit from robotaxis at a low initial investment is economically insane, challenging traditional valuation models for companies like Cruise.
-------------------------------------
Duration: 0:45:42
Publication Date: 2024-05-09T09:47:47Z
WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htmF547qXzc
-------------------------------------