Tesla’s Monster Week: $29B + Robotaxi Boom

Tesla's FSD and Robotaxi Advancements

🚗 Q: What major update is coming to Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system?
A: A new FSD model with 10x more parameters is expected to be ready for public release by the end of next month, offering a big leap forward in capabilities.

🛣️ Q: How much safer is Tesla's FSD compared to human drivers?
A: Tesla's FSD is reported to be 10x safer than human drivers, with the new model expected to provide a magnitude increase in safety and features.

🚕 Q: How is Tesla's Robotaxi service expanding?
A: Tesla's Robotaxi service is expanding rapidly, with the geofenced area in Austin quadrupled to 80 square miles in just 42 days, and ride-hailing launched in California.

Tesla's Strategic Moves

💼 Q: What decision has Tesla's board made regarding Elon Musk's compensation?
A: Tesla's board has decided to unfreeze 96 million shares from the 2018 compensation package, allowing Elon to purchase them in 2 years at the original share price.

🗳️ Q: How does this decision affect Elon Musk's voting rights?
A: This decision gives Elon immediate voting rights for 96 million more shares, formalizing his commitment to staying at Tesla for more than 2 years.

📅 Q: What important event is coming up for Tesla shareholders?
A: A shareholder meeting on November 6 will vote on a new compensation plan for Elon, a new equity incentive plan, a new board remuneration plan, and a potential XI investment.

Tesla's AI and Chip Developments

🧠 Q: What happened to Tesla's Dojo team?
A: The Dojo team was disbanded, but Tesla continues to advance its AI and chip plans.

💻 Q: Who are Tesla's reliable sources for chips?
A: Nvidia, Samsung, Intel, and AMD are mentioned as reliable sources for Tesla's chips.

FSD Features and Benefits

🎥 Q: What new capabilities will the updated FSD model offer?
A: The new model will enable better video compression loss, pothole detection, parking lot driving, pickup and drop-off at robo taxis, better path planning, anomaly avoidance, first responder driving, smoother traffic handling, and faster driving in high-chaos situations.

👴 Q: How does FSD benefit older drivers?
A: FSD makes older people more confident drivers and is considered life-saving technology that should be better educated about, not just advertised.

Robotaxi and Unsupervised FSD

🛌 Q: What is the expected timeline for unsupervised FSD?
A: Unsupervised FSD is expected by the end of the year, allowing users to play games or sleep while driving, pending regulatory approval.

🏙️ Q: What is required for Robotaxi expansion in different locations?
A: Regulatory approval is needed for each city and state to expand the Robotaxi service.

Tesla's Future Value and Optimus Program

🤖 Q: What is the significance of Tesla's Optimus program?
A: The Optimus program accounts for 80% of Tesla's future value and is a major milestone, not just about building robots but also about developing the brain.

📈 Q: How does FSD development relate to Optimus scaling?
A: FSD getting close to unsupervised enables Optimus to scale, which is crucial for Tesla's future value.

Safety and Public Perception

📊 Q: How does FSD affect human drivers' safety?
A: FSD makes human drivers safer and better, with data showing it reduces accidents.

📢 Q: What opportunity is Tesla missing regarding FSD?
A: Tesla is missing an opportunity to educate the public about the benefits of FSD, especially for older drivers and its life-saving potential.

Tesla's Strategic Moves

🚀 Tesla's board unfroze 96 million shares from the 2018 compensation package, giving Elon Musk immediate voting rights and making him a majority shareholder.

💰 The unfrozen shares are not taxable as they're purchased at the original price, unlike the 8% of shares taxed at 45% if bought at current market price.

🤖 Tesla's FSD (Full Self-Driving) is claimed to be 10x safer than human drivers, with no injuries reported in Austin's Robotaxi service.

🚕 Tesla's Robotaxi service in Austin is expanding by hiring people and increasing geofenced areas, but remains in a test phase.

FSD and Public Perception

🧠 FSD reportedly makes human drivers safer and more confident, especially beneficial for older drivers.

📢 Tesla has not made efforts to increase FSD awareness since the earnings call, despite Elon's promise to do so.

🔒 The company is waiting for a new 10x parameter model to further improve safety and minimize legal risk before scaling up Robotaxi services.

👥 Some argue Tesla should educate the public about FSD benefits rather than advertising it.

Technological Advancements

🖥️ Tesla's AI and chip plans are progressing, with a new FSD model featuring 10x more parameters expected soon.

🔧 The company relies on Nvidia, Samsung, Intel, and AMD for chips, potentially increasing Nvidia's strength.

🧠 Tesla is working on unsupervised FSD, which could scale to supercomputer-like performance, possibly eliminating the need for in-house chip production.

🚗 Tesla plans to remove safety drivers from Robotaxis by year-end, a major milestone for unsupervised FSD.

Future Projections and Risks

📈 Tesla is expected to reach 5 million deliveries per year by 2028, primarily Cybercabs and Model Ys.

💼 The Optimus program is critical, with 80% of future value dependent on its success.

⚠️ The cancellation of Optimus is a small risk but would have a significant impact if it occurred.

🌍 The Croatian law making vendors responsible for unsupervised FSD accidents poses a challenge to Tesla's expansion plans.

💰 Profits from the Robotaxi fleet are expected to be substantial, regardless of the exact number of vehicles delivered.

🔬 Setbacks and edge cases are considered inevitable in the development of unsupervised FSD technology.

• 00:00 🚀 Tesla has a significant week with Elon Musk's $29B stock award, robo taxi expansion, and new FSD model, setting up a potential major stock move higher amid optimism about its future.
  • Tesla had a significant week with a $29B stock award to Elon Musk, expansion of its robo taxi service, and a new FSD model, removing stock overhangs and setting up a potential major stock move higher.
  • The speaker feels optimistic about Tesla's future, citing good progress, increasing institutional investor interest, and Elon Musk's commitment, with the company's long-term opportunity being unparalleled.
  • Tesla's Delaware Supreme Court hearing on Elon Musk's 2018 compensation package, crucial for his voting rights, is delayed, possibly until after the shareholder meeting, forcing Tesla to act quickly.
  • Tesla's board unfroze a third of Elon's 2018 stock options, allowing him to buy them in two years at the original share price, as part of a new compensation plan to bring his ownership stake closer to 25%.
  • Tesla's board allocated 96 million shares to Elon, which is about a third of the remaining shares approved by shareholders in 2019, without needing a new vote.
  • Tesla currently has no expense related to a contentious stock package, but if it loses a Delaware case, it could face a massive expense, which the speaker attributes to Chancellor McCormick's potential ruling, while Elon Musk gains 96 million voting rights without immediate cost.
• 10:31 🤖 Tesla's proxy meeting to vote on new Elon Musk compensation plan, equity incentive plan, and potential milestones, amid board's efforts to formalize his long-term stay.
  • Tesla will vote on a new compensation plan for Elon and a new equity incentive plan, and the board may also propose a new remuneration plan for its members.
  • Elon Musk will not be allowed to vote on his own compensation plan and the Xai investment, but it's unclear if he can vote on the board reomination.
  • Tesla investors are eagerly awaiting the company's proxy meeting, expecting concrete milestones that will likely align with Elon Musk's goals, possibly including Master Plan 4.
  • Tesla's board has taken action to address a 6-year-old lawsuit by unanimously voting to give Elon Musk immediate voting rights, formalizing his long-term stay at the company.
  • The speaker praises a strategic move as genius and inquires about its origin.
• 16:14 🚗 Tesla is making progress on robotaxi and Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, with potential for a rapid ramp-up and widespread adoption, driven by a focus on safety.
  • Elon Musk's potential 8% share purchase in Tesla would actually result in only 4% more shares due to a 45% tax liability, but he retains voting rights for 100% of the shares with no taxable event occurring for 2 years.
  • The speaker is cautiously optimistic about Tesla's progress on robotaxi and addressing stock overhangs, but is waiting for the company to remove safety monitors from its vehicles before expecting a rapid ramp-up.
  • Elon Musk announced Tesla is training a new Full Self-Driving (FSD) model with a 10x parameter increase, expected to enable smoother, more confident, and safer autonomous driving, with potential public release by end of next month.
  • Tesla's focus on Full Self-Driving (FSD) and robotaxi technology, with a potential rollout strategy of expanding geography with a small number of cars and safety drivers before scaling up, is driven by a priority on safety and could lead to widespread adoption of the technology.
  • Tesla's focus on safety, as emphasized by Elon, suggests that the current robotaxi build isn't yet optimal, but plans to skip certain parameters and potentially leapfrog issues could lead to a faster rollout.
  • Tesla aims to achieve a 10x safety improvement in Full Self-Driving (FSD) by the end of next month, indicating a significant magnitude increase in safety and features.
• 25:52 🚗 Tesla's robotaxi expansion is delayed, awaiting improved Full Self-Driving tech to minimize risks, and may focus on public education to promote its safety benefits.
  • Tesla's robo-taxi expansion is moving quickly, but likely waiting for the next version of Full Self-Driving (FSD) to achieve a better safety profile and minimize legal risks before scaling up the service.
  • Tesla's robotaxi expansion may be delayed not due to safety concerns, but to implement a 10x parameter that further minimizes the probability of injury, potentially to be introduced by the end of next month.
  • Tesla needs to balance the perfection of its Full Self-Driving technology with the need to deploy it to the masses to save lives, and may aim to educate the public on its use once sufficient coverage is achieved.
  • Tesla is missing an opportunity to educate the public about the benefits of its Full Self-Driving technology, which makes human drivers safer and more confident, particularly for older people.
  • Tesla seems to be working on increasing awareness of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, possibly including robotaxis, with hints of behind-the-scenes efforts despite no public announcements.
  • Tesla should consider changing its strategy to counter negative media coverage, rather than solely fighting or ignoring it, by possibly educating or bringing the media to its side.
• 38:46 🤖 Tesla considers new strategies for FSD and robotaxi promotion amid changes in AI efforts and potential advertising for affordable vehicles.
  • Tesla should consider reaching out to certain media outlets to present a more balanced view of the company and its products, such as robotaxis, to reduce negative coverage and public fear.
  • Tesla will likely start advertising when its more affordable vehicle is released, as people will then be able to afford it and the company will need to reach a larger market.
  • The conversation appears to be about Tesla's potential change in strategy to advertise Full Self-Driving (FSD) capabilities.
  • Tesla reportedly disbanded its Dojo supercomputer team, with the team lead leaving and 20 workers joining a new company, Density AI, as Elon Musk consolidates AI efforts with external technology partners.
  • Elon Musk has repeatedly mentioned Dojo, a key tool for autonomy, since 2019, describing it as a high-risk, high-reward project that could give Tesla a significant capacity advantage.
  • Tesla's delayed autonomous driving development may benefit Nvidia and refocus Tesla on its core business.
• 46:35 🤖 Tesla's AI chip strategy is shifting amid talent drain, with a new partnership with Samsung and a focus on securing AI chips, not making them.
  • Tesla's talent drain and partnership with Samsung suggest a shift in its AI chip strategy, with Dojo's role potentially diminished.
  • Tesla's approach to team building and recruitment, which focuses on developing and educating employees rather than hiring top talent at high salaries, made it difficult to recover from losing over half of a team.
  • Tesla's approach to recruitment and team building is distinct from that of some arrogant soccer teams, focusing on teamwork rather than collecting high-priced stars.
  • Tesla's recent partnership with Samsung and potential plan B for AI development may mitigate the impact of losing top executives and AI6 delays on the company's stock and business.
  • Tesla's success hinges on securing and quickly utilizing as many AI chips and systems as possible, not necessarily on making their own chips.
  • The speaker believes Optimus has been delayed and doesn't expect significant updates, focusing instead on unsupervised learning.
• 53:35 🚗 Elon Musk hints at Tesla's robotaxi and FSD rollout in 3-6 months, pending regulations, with Optimus program seen as key to company's future value.
  • Elon Musk suggests that full self-driving (FSD) without a safety driver could be available in 3-6 months, pending regulatory approval, allowing users to play games or sleep while the car drives.
  • New regulations clarify liability for robotaxi accidents, and market scaling of Tesla's unsupervised FSD is expected once safety drivers are removed and distracted FSD is made available to customers.
  • The biggest risks to Tesla are the potential loss of Elon Musk, lawfare and pending court cases in Delaware, and the unlikely but high-impact cancellation of the Optimus program.
  • Tesla considers Optimus, not Dojo, a critical component of its value, with the potential for huge financial impact as it nears unsupervised Full Self-Driving capabilities.
  • A major incident with Tesla's robotaxi, like a fatal accident, could derail its plans for this year, forcing the company to slow down and re-start from a smaller scale.
  • Tesla crews allegedly covered up an incident where a person was dragged and injured by one of their vehicles.
• 01:01:08 🚗 Tesla expects to produce massive numbers of vehicles, with potential for 5 million "robots on wheels" by 2028, and robotaxi fleet growth that could make its auto business insignificant.
  • Tesla is expected to produce 5 million "robots on wheels" per year by 2028, mostly Cybertrucks and Model Ys, with potential setbacks and bad news along the way.
  • Tesla's production could reach 20 million by 2030 with low probability, and more realistically, around 250,000 to 500,000 at scale, with estimates ranging from 26 to 29 million by 2028.
  • The number of vehicles in Tesla's robotaxi fleet, whether 3 million or 5 million, is irrelevant as the auto business will become insignificant with massive profits still possible.
  • Tesla's overall margins are expected to improve, especially in the second half of 2026, with service margins being a contributing factor.
  • Tesla's Q4 prospects depend on interest rate drops, with potential for a strong finish to the year, and possibly selling more cars to its robotaxi division than customers by 2026.
  • The speaker thanks viewers, mentions a big week of news for Tesla, and invites them to a future event with music and possibly IKEA hats.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UoAxh-TqTkw