2025 UP.Partners Moving World Report - Adam Grosser

Emerging Technologies

🚁 Q: How are drones revolutionizing delivery services?
A: Drones are delivering millions of goods with insane energy efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and convenience, exemplified by Google's Wing program partnering with Walmart and DoorDash, and Zipline saving half a million lives delivering medicine worldwide.

🤖 Q: What roles can humanoid robots fill in the workforce?
A: Humanoid robots can address aging populations and labor shortages, performing tasks in oil fields, hospitals, and factories that require dexterity and navigation through tight spaces without risking human lives.

🚗 Q: How do autonomous vehicles compare to human drivers in safety?
A: Autonomous vehicles like Waymo are surpassing human drivers, achieving an 88% reduction in property damage claims and a higher miles-per-accident rate than Tesla's early full self-driving versions.

Global Innovation and Competition

🇨🇳 Q: How has China's technological competitiveness evolved?
A: China has become fully competitive and a global leader in various sectors including UAVs, energy, and fundamental manufacturing technologies, leading in 37 of 44 fundamental technologies related to modern transportation.

🚀 Q: What progress has China made in space exploration?
A: China has embraced privatized space, successfully landing on the far side of the moon, and is developing sophisticated capabilities including recreating Starship-like functionality and breaking the world record for a nine-hour spacewalk.

🏭 Q: How does US manufacturing capacity compare to China's?
A: The US manufacturing capacity is about half of China's, with $2.5 trillion in absolute numbers versus China's $5 trillion.

Energy and Transportation

⚡ Q: What's driving the rapid growth of data centers?
A: Unprecedented data center growth is requiring massive amounts of power and energy, leading companies like Amazon, Google, and Meta to invest in small modular nuclear reactors and nuclear power data centers.

🚗 Q: How dominant is China in electric vehicle production?
A: China produces 76% of EVs globally and has increased its car production from 1% in 2000 to 32% last year, while Europe struggles with 50% capacity at a third of its EU plants.

🛸 Q: What advancements are being made in electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft?
A: Companies like Autoflight and Ehang in China are fully licensed to carry people and goods, while US companies like Joby and Archer are nearing FAA certification for various applications including air taxi, cargo, and EMS.

Future Energy Solutions

☢️ Q: How is fusion energy progressing globally?
A: There are 50 fusion companies worldwide, with Commonwealth Fusion Systems in Virginia chosen for the first fusion reactor, driven by the region's 26% energy usage for data centers.

🔋 Q: What energy sectors is China rapidly innovating in?
A: China is rapidly advancing in nuclear power, solar and wind energy, and fusion energy, driven by its massive push towards an information economy, AI, and new forms of electric mobility.

🏗️ Q: How is the US addressing reshoring and re-industrialization?
A: The US is experiencing dramatically higher reshoring than in decades but is still lagging significantly as a percentage of GDP compared to other industrialized countries.

Global Trends and Innovation

🌍 Global dissatisfaction with the status quo is evident, as every governing party that had an election in 2024 lost vote share for the first time in 70 years.

🇨🇳 China has become a global leader in 37 out of 44 fundamental technologies related to transportation and mobility, including UAVs, energy, and manufacturing.

🤖 The humanoid robotics industry is evolving at an insanely fast pace, with over 60 companies developing robots that can fill demographic gaps at $1/hour employment costs.

Energy and Infrastructure

⚡ China has achieved 1200 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2024, driven by its massive push towards an information economy, AI, and electric mobility.

🏭 Data centers are consuming unprecedented amounts of energy, with 26% of Virginia's energy dedicated to them, while 50 fusion companies worldwide are working on achieving commercial viability within a decade.

🚗 Autonomous vehicles like Waymo are surpassing traditional ride-hailing services, with an 88% reduction in property damage claims for insurance.

Economic and Technological Shifts

🏗️ The US is experiencing a trend of reshoring and re-industrialization, but still lags behind other industrialized countries in manufacturing as a percentage of GDP.

🇪🇺 Europe has experienced 20 years of no growth in companies formed with market caps larger than $10 billion, with Spotify being the largest new company.

💻 AI has the potential to revolutionize air traffic control, with current systems being 40-50 years old and in need of modernization.

Future Challenges and Opportunities

🚀 Technology has improved humanity's life expectancy, income per capita, and percentage of people not living in poverty, but also created new problems like space debris and nuclear waste storage.

🔋 Major tech companies like Amazon, Google, Oracle, and Microsoft are investing in nuclear power for their data centers.

🏥 Humanoid robots are being developed for various applications, including oil fields, hospitals, and factories, with costs dropping to $1/hour.

• 00:00 📺 Adam Grosser, Chairman of UP Partner, shares insights from the 2025 Moving World Report at the MIT Mobility Forum, ahead of its official launch on March 10th.
  • MIT Mobility Forum hosts Adam Grosser, Chairman of UP Partner, to share the 2025 Moving World Report, an early peek at which he presents three days before its official March 10th launch.
  • Adam Grosser is introduced as chairman and managing partner of UP Partner, an early-stage venture capital fund, with 24 years of experience as an investor, entrepreneur, and operator.
  • Adam Grosser has extensive experience in the energy and technology sectors, having held leadership positions at various firms, including Silver Lake, Foundation Capital, and UP.Partner.
  • Adam Grosser, with a background in leadership at Apple and other notable companies, has diverse interests and expertise in mobility, technology, and aviation, and is currently a senior fellow for MIT Mobility Initiative's 2025 cohort.
• 03:56 🚀 UP Partners aims to transform the moving world by investing in cleaner, faster, and safer transportation, amidst global shifts in innovation, economic stagnation, and rising US re-industrialization.
  • UP Partners aims to transform the moving world by investing in, building, and fostering communities around companies that enable cleaner, faster, and safer transportation of people and goods.
  • There's a resurgence of interest in robotics, automation, maritime transport, electric aviation, energy, and compute, informing investment and build decisions.
  • The world is experiencing a cycle of pessimism, with increased worry and risk aversion, and a global dissatisfaction with the status quo, particularly in the developed world, as evidenced by declining governing party vote shares and shifting public sentiment.
  • China has evolved from a perceived laggard in innovation to a global leader in various sectors related to transportation and mobility, leading in 37 out of 44 fundamental technologies as of late 2024.
  • Europe's economic stagnation, characterized by 20 years of no growth and a lack of large, new companies, contrasts with the US, where reshoring and re-industrialization are on the rise.
  • The US has significantly lower shipbuilding capacity and higher costs compared to Japan and Korea, and limited forging capacity hinders large-scale manufacturing, such as production of the BE4 engine.
• 13:50 🚀 Emerging technologies like humanoid robotics, private space companies, and advanced aviation are rapidly evolving, driven by economic incentives and decreasing costs, to transform industries and fill workforce gaps.
  • Humanoid robotics is a rapidly evolving field with over 60 companies, including market leaders like Adjabat, deploying robots in commercial operations, enabled by convergence of technologies like autonomy, AI, and decreased compute costs.
  • Humanoid robots and private space companies, particularly in China, are poised to fill gaps in demographics and workforce, driven by economic incentives and rapid technological advancements.
  • The cost of launching payloads to orbit has dramatically decreased, from $12,000 per kilo to potentially $200 per kilo, mirroring trends in computing and data storage, and driving a rapid expansion of satellites in low Earth orbit.
  • Entrepreneur Peter Beck, who didn't finish high school, built a successful company, Rocket Lab, which is set to compete with SpaceX and is launching its own satellite constellation.
  • The aviation industry is due for a revolutionary change, with companies like Jet Zero and Comac exploring new designs, such as blended wing bodies, that could increase efficiency by 50%, as traditional aircraft designs have only seen incremental improvements from advances in engine technology.
  • 13 well-funded companies, including Boom and Google's Wing, are working on demonstrations to transport people point-to-point within 90-120 minutes using innovative technologies like supersonic travel and drones.
• 24:06 🚁 Drones and eVTOLs are being rapidly deployed globally for efficient delivery, transport, and defense, disrupting traditional industries with innovative designs and technologies.
  • Zipline's drone delivery system is extremely energy-efficient, cost-effective, and convenient, enabling rapid delivery of goods, such as medicine and food, while saving lives.
  • Drones and eVTOLs are being actively deployed globally, with companies like Autoflight, Ehang, Joby, Archer, and Beta making significant progress in air taxi and cargo transport, with some already licensed to carry people and goods.
  • Several eVTOL companies, including Joby, Beta, and Pivotal, are making progress with innovative designs, test flights, and applications in EMS and hybrid electric propulsion.
  • The defense industry is rapidly changing with a shift towards low-cost, expendable devices and disruption of traditional contractors by hundreds of small companies, driven by technological advancements and changing global dynamics.
• 28:50 🚀 The world is shifting towards electrification, autonomy, and emerging technologies, driven by companies like SpaceX, Waymo, and Palantir, with significant investments in new energy infrastructure and a notable relocation trend to Southern California.
  • Companies like Palantir are achieving significant value, and there's a notable relocation trend of entrepreneurs to Southern California, driven by the presence of companies like SpaceX.
  • Electrification and autonomy in the automotive industry are advancing rapidly, with Waymo achieving significant milestones, including an 88% reduction in property damage claims and surpassing Lyft's market share in San Francisco.
  • China dominates electric vehicle production with 76% market share, while Europe struggles with underutilized plants and closures, lagging in adapting to the shift.
  • Electrification, AI, and emerging technologies will require new power sources, with data centers alone consuming massive amounts of energy, such as 26% of Virginia's energy.
  • The increasing demand for data center power, driven by the tech economy and AI, is leading to a surge in innovative energy solutions, including nuclear power, with global players like China, US tech companies investing heavily in new energy infrastructure.
• 36:13 🤝 Global collaboration in areas like advanced manufacturing is hindered by legal and security barriers, while inspiring young people's aspirations through hands-on educational experiences is crucial for their future.
  • The host welcomes Adam Grosser and prepares to start a Q&A session with a lively audience discussion already underway in the chat.
  • China and the US have duplicative efforts in areas like medicine, energy, and transportation due to current geopolitics, but could collaborate in areas like advanced manufacturing and material science if not for legal and security barriers.
  • A study comparing children's aspirations in 1970 and 2023 found a shift from traditional careers like astronaut and doctor to social media influencer roles, indicating a troubling change.
  • Providing opportunities and educational experiences that ignite imagination, such as hands-on activities like teaching 19,000 kids about rocketry, is necessary to inspire young people to have an aspirational future.
• 42:05 🤖 Autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots, and AI are advancing, with costs dropping and efficiencies rising, to transform industries like transportation, logistics, and air traffic control.
  • The cost of humanoid robots is dropping to around $1 per hour, a trend that should be widely publicized to encourage further development.
  • Humanoid robots can be used in various transportation and industrial applications, such as oil rigs, hospitals, and factories, to perform tasks that require dexterity in challenging or mundane situations, freeing humans from potential danger or tedious labor.
  • Autonomous vehicle technology has shifted from a technical issue to an economic and business model issue, focusing on cost per mile, efficiency, and operation.
  • Autonomous vehicles have reached a point where their unit economics are better than those with human drivers and, despite some risks, will only improve from here.
  • AI can be applied to air traffic control, simulation, and training, making systems more efficient and cost-effective, such as using head-mounted displays for a fraction of the current $30 million hardware cost.
  • The future air traffic control system will likely involve a low-altitude airspace for drones and a separate, higher altitude system for eVTOLs and air taxis that seamlessly integrates with commercial airliners and military flights.
• 48:54 🤖 Technology innovations will continue to improve human life, but require a shift in education and retraining to ensure people contribute meaningfully in a changing world.
  • The conversation will be summarized and contextualized after a thoughtful and dense commentary was provided.
  • Technology often creates new problems, such as climate crisis, resilient insects, nuclear waste, and space debris, while trying to solve existing ones, raising questions about its net benefit to society.
  • Technology has significantly improved human life expectancy, income, and quality of life over the past 150 years, with an exponential pace of progress expected to continue, assuming no catastrophic setbacks.
  • To reshape the narrative around technology, it's essential to start educating kids at a young age that math and science are opportunities for lifelong curiosity, not burdens.
  • The focus should shift from simply creating jobs to retraining people for better occupations and preparing them to contribute to society in meaningful ways, particularly as demographics change with aging populations.
  • The speaker, Adam Grosser, presents on technology innovations and the future of progress, highlighting automation's potential to assist daily human life.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXDXHYazKa4