The autonomous robotaxi business has the potential to significantly increase Tesla's market valuation and become a massive source of recurring income
Questions to inspire discussion
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What is the potential impact of Tesla's robotaxi business on the company's market valuation?
—Tesla's robotaxi business has the potential to unlock trillions in market cap valuation, triggering a great repricing of Tesla stock.
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How will Tesla's stock value be affected by the autonomous robotaxi business?
—Tesla's stock is expected to experience a significant increase in value once the market gains confidence in the future projections and timelines of the autonomous robotaxi business.
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What are the potential financial benefits of Tesla's robotaxi compared to human drivers?
—Tesla's robotaxi business has the potential to generate significantly higher operating income and compound revenue, potentially doubling Tesla's current annual operating income.
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How will Tesla's robotaxi impact the demand for transportation services from companies like Uber and Lyft?
—Tesla's robotaxi launch is expected to cause a shift in demand from Uber and Lyft, with Tesla's pricing potentially being 10-15% cheaper initially and up to 40% cheaper over time.
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What are the key factors affecting the confidence in financial projections for Tesla's robotaxi business?
—Tesla investors are frustrated with the stock price due to uncertainty around autonomy, market launch, supply capacity, and regulatory headwinds, making it difficult to assign high confidence to financial projections.
Key Insights
- 🤖 The autonomous robot taxi business will unlock trillions in Tesla's market cap valuation, triggering the great repricing of Tesla.
- 📈 The autonomous robotaxi business could easily arrive at a valuation that is north of the current share price today, discounted at an appropriate rate of 12%.
- 💰 The revenue from the robotaxi business is much higher and enables compounding, making it a recurring and massive source of income.
- 🚗 Tesla plans to have a consumer-owned part-time robotaxi, allowing individual owners to make profit by leasing their vehicles for autonomous driving.
- 🚗 The take rate for Tesla's Robotaxi can be adjusted to incentivize owners to put their vehicles into the network during peak times, making it worth their time to do so.
- 🚗 The potential of autonomous vehicles to disrupt car ownership and increase demand is pretty insane.
- 🚗 According to estimates, one million Robo Taxis could generate around 17 billion of operating income, more than double what they currently make.
- 🌍 China's full support of autonomy and the assignment of seven cities for autonomous vehicles could set a precedent for other countries and accelerate the adoption of robotaxis worldwide.
#Tesla #Robotaxi #FSD #AI
XMentions: @herbertong @smdcapital88 @cernbasher @GoingBallistic5 @HabitatsDigital
Clips
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00:00 🚗 Tesla's robotaxi business will unlock trillions in market cap valuation, with potential for significant increase in stock value and a shift in demand from Uber and Lyft.
- Tesla's robotaxi business will unlock trillions in market cap valuation, triggering a great repricing of Tesla stock, with detailed analysis provided by experts in the field.
- Tesla's stock will experience a significant increase in value once the market gains confidence in the future projections and timelines of the autonomous robotaxi business.
- The speaker discusses the detailed analysis and perspective on the key drivers and timelines for Tesla's robotaxi business, aiming to stay ahead of the market and provide higher conviction in terms of timelines.
- Tesla's robotaxi business has the potential to generate significantly higher operating income and compound revenue, potentially doubling Tesla's current annual operating income.
- The speaker discusses the potential financial impact of Tesla's robotaxi compared to human drivers and the limitations of Uber's take rate.
- Tesla will launch their services in incremental cities, causing a shift in demand from Uber and Lyft, with Tesla's pricing potentially being 10-15% cheaper initially and up to 40% cheaper over time.
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12:34 🚗 Tesla's robotaxi model will have full-time and part-time options, with potential for 20 hours of work per day, allowing for maximum vehicle utilization and a revenue split of 65% for operators and 35% for Tesla.
- Tesla investors are frustrated with the stock price because of uncertainty around autonomy, market launch, supply capacity, and regulatory headwinds, making it difficult to assign high confidence to financial projections.
- The speaker discusses the framework for asking the right questions and the unit economics of Tesla's robotaxi.
- Tesla will have a full-time robotaxi owned by the company, a part-time robotaxi owned by consumers, and a full-time robotaxi owned by fleet operators, with the option to lease or buy the vehicles.
- The Tesla-owned full-time Robo taxis can potentially work 20 hours a day, but a more conservative estimate would be closer to 15 hours per day to account for inefficiencies.
- Tesla's robotaxi model allows for maximum utilization of vehicles, with operators keeping 65% of revenue and Tesla making 35%.
- The cost of FSD and the take rate are interconnected, with the potential for FSD to add 15% to operating income at $300 a month, but the take rate is generally modeled around 30%.
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23:44 🚕 Tesla's robotaxi service could potentially generate high margins and provide car owners with the opportunity to make above $900 of monthly net revenue, leading to a potential shift in car ownership and increase in the cost of buying a Tesla.
- Customer-owned robot taxis could work around 4 hours per day, and the anatomy of a trip includes waiting for a request, driving to the pickup location, waiting for the customer to enter the vehicle, and driving to the destination.
- The speaker discusses the potential pricing model for Tesla's robotaxi service, highlighting the importance of including base fares and idle time charges in order to accurately calculate the price per mile.
- The speaker discusses the operating expenses related to a fleet and the potential profitability of Tesla's robot taxi, with a focus on the 70% operating margin and the potential revenue and cost per mile.
- Tesla's robotaxi has the potential to generate high margins and provide car owners with the opportunity to make above $900 of monthly net revenue.
- Tesla's robotaxi concept could potentially allow individuals to make money by renting out their Teslas, leading to a shift in car ownership and potential increase in the cost of buying a Tesla.
- Elon Musk wants to make money through the take rate and high margin of the FSD, creating a win-win scenario for customers and fans.
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39:23 🚕 Tesla's Robotaxi has the potential to unlock trillions in profit by adjusting the take rate, building to peak demand, and disrupting car ownership with lower costs and convenience.
- The take rate for Tesla's Robotaxi can be adjusted to incentivize vehicle owners to put their cars into the network during peak hours, and the market size analysis aims to determine the demand and utilization of Robo taxis in different cities.
- Tesla may have to decide between building to average demand or building to peak demand for their robotaxi fleet, but ultimately it may not be as big of a problem as presumed, as they can make up for any potential loss in margin through volume and optimize for customer experience rather than vehicle utilization.
- The speaker discusses the market sizing for Tesla's robotaxi and the challenges of determining the demand for passenger miles traveled.
- The potential for Tesla's robotaxi to unlock trillions in profit is significant, with a conservative estimate of 130 million globally and a capacity of 65 million even if only 50% are obtainable, leading to the possibility of reaching a couple thousand dollars per share.
- The speaker discusses the potential impact of robotaxis on passenger miles and the potential increase in usage due to lower costs and convenience, based on data from Uber's investor day.
- As the price of autonomous vehicles decreases, demand will increase, disrupting car ownership and unlocking new use cases.
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52:30 🚕 Tesla's robotaxi could potentially be 25 times cheaper than Uber, leading to a significant increase in daily transportation, with an estimated need for 2 million full-time robot taxis for the top 800 cities in the United States.
- Tesla's robotaxi could potentially be 25 times cheaper than Uber, leading to a significant increase in the number of people using it for daily transportation.
- The speaker analyzes the potential demand for Tesla's robotaxi in urban environments and calculates the number of rides per hour and per month that the vehicle can complete, based on the population data of the top 800 cities in the United States.
- Robot taxis will be the cheapest, most convenient, and safest option for transportation, with an estimated need for 2 million full-time robot taxis for the top 800 cities.
- Tesla's robotaxi will require regulation and a smaller number of cars on the road, with an estimated fleet of 4.4 to 5 million to meet peak demand in the top 800 cities in the United States.
- Tesla's Robotaxi could generate trillions in operating income, with estimates of needing 50-130 million Robo taxis globally, even in developed countries.
- The slide shows the supply side capacity and regulation friendliness of different states, with many being green or yellow and neutral not being bad.
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01:05:40 🚕 Tesla's Robotaxi has the potential to surpass Uber and Lyft, with projected global fleet of 25 million vehicles by 2030 and potential revenue streams from advertising and entertainment.
- Regulations and pilot programs for robotaxis are not as big of a concern as previously thought, with many cities and states already showing support and readiness for autonomous vehicles.
- Government interventions and potential fleet caps or fees for Robo taxis could hinder their approval, but history shows that consumer demand and lower prices can ultimately lead to success, especially for lower income individuals and women with children who struggle with transportation costs.
- Tesla stock could see an increase based on the launch date and scaling of units for the robotaxi, with a bare case, base case, and bull case scenario considered.
- The stock price of Tesla should incorporate a value ranging from $138 to $489, but there is likely an 80-90% discount rate being applied, and a catalyst is needed to trigger more confidence in the market.
- Tesla's stock is expected to rise significantly due to the potential impact of the robotaxi and financial models show the potential for high revenue and operating income.
- Tesla's Robotaxi is projected to surpass Uber and Lyft in 2028 or 2029, with a global fleet of 25 million vehicles estimated by 2030, and potential revenue streams from advertising and entertainment.
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01:19:23 🚕 Tesla's robotaxi has the potential to generate significant revenue and increase stock value, with key announcements expected by the end of the year.
- Tesla's robotaxi has the potential to generate significant revenue through various opportunities, including the possibility of adding ads and surge pricing, which could result in a valuation of $200 to $300 per share.
- The intrinsic value of robotaxi is high, but it is not priced in due to uncertainty about autonomy, launch timing, and competitive dynamics.
- Tesla's stock is expected to increase significantly once the official business model is clarified, leading to a great repricing and potential rally, so it's important to do the homework now to understand the potential growth.
- Tesla is expected to make several key announcements by the end of the year, including the unveiling of the Cyber cab, a supervised permit application approval, a Pilot launch, and an FSD OEM licensing deal announcement, which could spark a great repricing of the stock.
- Tesla's upcoming events, such as the cyber cab unveil and FED cutting rates, may impact the stock and the company's future.
- Elon Musk's upcoming event could unveil historically important developments for Tesla, including version 13 teaser, licensing deal, and potential launch in two cities next year.
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01:29:55 🚀 Tesla's business model and achieving milestones will impact the stock, options trading, and financial analysis, so it's important to stay updated and prepared for the future.
- Consolidating and organizing a list of catalysts is important for keeping track of the many moving pieces in order to stay updated and prepared for the future.
- The speaker discusses the impact of Tesla's business model on the stock and the importance of achieving milestones for timing.
- The speaker discusses the future of Tesla's stock, options trading, and financial analysis, and encourages viewers to follow Justin and CERN for more information.
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Duration: 1:33:0
Publication Date: 2024-06-24T22:51:08Z
WatchUrl:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9XfDeCIM8yw
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