FSD revenue counts NOW - The March shift to "Supervised" changes everything

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FSD revenue counts NOW - The March shift to "Supervised" changes everything

Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) revenue recognition is complicated by regulatory challenges, potential lawsuits, and the distinction between immediate subscription revenue and deferred recognition for purchased features, raising concerns about the product's completion and resale value

    Questions to inspire discussion 

    Financial Implications

    🔢How does Tesla's revenue recognition for FSD differ between subscriptions and purchases? Tesla recognizes full revenue for FSD subscriptions as a beta/supervised product, while treating purchases as deferred revenue for a future product until FSD is feature complete.

    💰What impact could Tesla's FSD revenue recognition have on earnings? A potential earnings surprise may occur if Tesla recognizes revenue against billions in deferred revenue from FSD purchases.

    Product Classification and Legal Considerations

    🏷️How has Tesla's FSD product classification changed? Tesla now refers to FSD as "full self-driving supervised", classifying it as a partial product for revenue recognition, distinct from the future "full self-driving" product.

    ⚖️How does Tesla's FSD transfer policy affect potential legal issues? By reclassifying FSD as "beta to supervised" and counting all paid amounts as revenue, Tesla may reduce exposure to class action lawsuits over FSD feature completeness.

    Regulatory Environment

    🚗What are the current regulatory limitations on FSD deployment? NHTSA currently allows only 2,500 cars to be operated remotely across all brands, while a proposed AV framework would permit more vehicles with safety guidelines and permit revocation for unsafe operation.

     

    Key Insights 

    Financial Implications

    🔢Tesla's revenue recognition strategy for FSD differs between subscriptions (full revenue) and purchases (deferred revenue), potentially leading to significant earnings surprises when billions in deferred revenue are recognized.

    💰The shift to "Full Self-Driving Supervised" allows Tesla to count it as a partial product, enabling immediate revenue recognition and potentially removing buyers from class action lawsuits over feature completeness.

    Regulatory Landscape

    🚗NHTSA currently limits remote operation to 2,500 cars across all brands, while a proposed AV framework could allow more vehicles with safety guidelines and permit revocation for unsafe operation.

    Product Pricing and Value

    💸Tesla's FSD pricing at $8,000 historically doesn't retain full value at trade-in, with an unknown take rate among customers.

    Terminology and Marketing

    🏷️Tesla's change in FSD verbiage from "full self-driving" to "full self-driving supervised" strategically positions it as a partial product for revenue recognition purposes.

     

    #FutureAzA #Tesla #FSD

    XMentions: @FutureAzA @Tesla @HabitatsDigital 

     

    Clips 

    • 00:00 🧮 Accounting for Tesla's FSD revenue is complex due to the need to defer recognition until full delivery, raising concerns about potential lawsuits if features are not completed.
      • 01:19 💰 Subscriptions for FSD generate immediate revenue despite offering an incomplete product, as users pay for a beta version rather than a finished one.
        • 02:09 🚗 Full self-driving features now count towards revenue immediately upon purchase, with minimal driver intervention required, depending on regulatory approval in certain regions.
          • 03:07 💰 Transferring FSD to supervised status allows full payment to be counted as revenue while removing participants from class action claims.
            • 04:08 🚗 Feature completion for FSD is uncertain, with potential delays and challenges in teleoperation costs outweighing the benefits.
              • 05:38 🚗 Regulatory hurdles remain for Tesla's FSD to operate fully autonomously, but upcoming changes could allow for broader deployment if safety and reporting requirements are met.
                • 06:58 🤔 Potential lawsuits could arise if the timeline for changes extends, impacting those who transfer and their eligibility in class action claims.
                  • 07:50 🚗 Renting FSD is better than buying due to resale uncertainty and potential earnings, with new features possibly adding $100-$200 million in deferred revenue amid revenue recognition concerns.
                    • Renting FSD is more advantageous than buying due to uncertainty in resale value and potential earnings surprises.
                    • New features may generate $100-$200 million in deferred revenue, but uncertainty exists regarding revenue recognition for cars taken out of service after purchasing full self-driving.

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                  Duration: 0:9:30

                  Publication Date: 2024-10-17T20:27:38Z

                  WatchUrl:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KvRUQPbH3Jc

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