Tom Lee Is Extremely BULLISH On Tesla Stock Right Now

Tesla Stock Analysis

🚀 Q: What does Tom Lee mean by Tesla stock being "sold out"?
A: Tom Lee suggests Tesla stock has bottomed out in March, held a higher low in April, indicating no more stock left to sell - a bullish signal.

📈 Q: How does the "longer base" concept apply to Tesla stock?
A: According to Kathy Wood, a longer base period (4 years of flat prices) creates a bigger breakout potential, with committed shareholders waiting for news on robo taxi or bot.

🤖 Q: How has Elon Musk's focus on FSD and AI transformed Tesla?
A: Musk's all-in approach on FSD, robotics, and AI has shifted Tesla from a car company to an AI company, creating a huge base of committed shareholders anticipating a robo taxi breakout.

Tesla's Future and Market Factors

🚗 Q: What product updates might Tesla announce soon?
A: Upcoming announcements may include product updates on a less expensive car and robo taxi, potentially spurring another wave of buying and consolidating current holders.

🇨🇳 Q: How might China tariffs impact Tesla?
A: With 95% China supply, Tesla faces limited impact from China tariffs, as most parts are sourced locally, unlike other automakers.

📊 Q: What's the current recession outlook according to Tom Lee?
A: Tom Lee maintains a 60% recession call as of April 10th, with a 40% chance of no recession, depending on Trump's tariff de-escalation efforts.

Automotive Industry Trends

🏎️ Q: How did forward buying affect recent car sales?
A: Moody's economist Mark Zandi notes forward buying due to tariff anticipation boosted sales to 17.5 million annualized, but steals from future spending.

💼 Q: What's the recession probability if trade tensions continue?
A: Mark Zandi states a recession is more likely than not if trade war intensifies, with a 60% chance of recession starting this year.

Tesla's Market Position

💡 Q: Why does Larry Goldberg consider the current moment uncertain for Tesla?
A: Goldberg agrees Tesla is "sold out" in terms of current news and shareholders, but warns another bout of bad news could cause another wave of selling.

⏳ Q: What's the expected timeline for Tesla's robo taxi rollout?
A: Opinions vary, with some expecting an explosive overnight breakout, while others, like Larry Goldberg, predict a 1-2 year rollout, with a less expensive car being key to success.

🌐 Q: How significant is Tesla's exposure to China?
A: Tesla's 30% China exposure is a concern, but Tom Lee's "sold out" comment suggests limited impact from China tariffs due to local sourcing.

💰 Q: According to Tom Lee, why is now a good time to buy Tesla stock?
A: Lee considers Tesla stock "sold out" - a bullish signal indicating fewer people will sell, making it a buy opportunity.

Tesla Stock Analysis

🚀 Tesla stock is "sold out" according to Tom Lee, indicating a bullish signal as it has bottomed out in March and held a higher low in April, suggesting no more stock left to sell despite negative news.

💼 "Sold out stocks" are preferred over "oversold stocks" as they have gone down significantly but have no more stock left to sell, potentially leading to price increases.

📈 Tesla has built a huge base of committed shareholders over four years of bidding flat, with a potential for an incredible breakout when launching its new AI and robotics business.

Tesla's China Relationship

🇨🇳 Tesla has a strong relationship with China and 25% supplier exposure, but Tom Lee doesn't expect it to go much lower despite China's economic challenges.

🏭 95% of Tesla's China car sales are supplied in China, making it less vulnerable to China tariffs compared to other automakers.

Future Prospects and Challenges

🚕 Tesla's robo taxi business is expected to be slower to start but potentially greater than five times the car business when fully operational.

⏳ The transition to autonomous vehicles is projected to take 5-7 years to supply the global market, according to Tesla executives.

🔋 A crucial challenge for Tesla's future is leveraging battery supply to meet demand for robo taxi and semi truck production.

Economic Outlook

📊 Moody's economist reports March car sales at 17.5 million annualized, up 1.5 million from the prior quarter, due to anticipated tariff price increases.

📉 Tom Lee's recession probability remains at 60%, unchanged since April 10th, contingent on the Trump administration's actions on tariffs.

Investor Sentiment

👥 There's always a group of shareholders that may sell if faced with another bout of bad news, making the current moment and group of holders the open question.

⏱️ The timing of Tesla's breakout is uncertain but expected to happen over time as the company rolls out its robotaxi business.

• 00:00 🚗 Tom Lee is bullish on Tesla stock, believing it has bottomed out and will rise despite challenges, as it approaches sold-out conditions amid increasing car purchases.
  • Tom Lee is bullish on Tesla stock, viewing it as sold out despite challenges in China, and believes it will rise as car purchases increase.
  • Stocks may be approaching sold-out conditions, indicating limited selling left despite negative news and outlooks, particularly with the MAG 7 and high beta stocks showing signs of support.
  • Tesla has significant supplier exposure to China, with 25% of its parts sourced from there, indicating strong pricing power in the market.
  • Tesla stock appears to have bottomed out in March and is now considered sold out, despite recent order suspensions for the Model SNX in China.
  • Tom Lee is bullish on Tesla stock, but concerns remain about potential shareholder sell-offs depending on upcoming earnings and company announcements.
• 05:41 🚀 Tom Lee is bullish on Tesla stock, citing strong investor loyalty and potential growth from its shift to AI and upcoming innovations.
  • Tom Lee is bullish on Tesla stock, believing that the remaining investors are committed and waiting for positive developments like the robo taxi and bot.
  • Tesla's prolonged period of stability has created a strong base of loyal investors, making it likely to skyrocket as those who couldn't hold have already sold.
  • Elon Musk's shift of Tesla from a car company to an AI-focused company is expected to lead to significant growth, with increasing institutional support from shareholders.
• 09:27 🚗 Tom Lee is bullish on Tesla stock, citing optimism over upcoming product announcements and the long-term potential of robo taxis despite short-term revenue concerns.
  • Elon Musk is prioritizing the development of robo taxis over a compact car, despite concerns about potential revenue impacts.
  • Tesla's stock is currently reliant on the long-term potential of robo taxis, which are expected to take one to two years to develop rather than delivering immediate results.
  • Tom Lee is optimistic about Tesla's upcoming product announcements, particularly regarding a less expensive car model.
• 12:57 🚀 Tom Lee is bullish on Tesla stock due to improved regulatory approval for robo-taxis, Elon Musk's risk-taking success, and the potential of a lower-priced model in emerging markets.
  • Elon Musk's willingness to take significant risks has repeatedly proven successful, as seen in the unexpected advancements and relationships that have positively impacted Tesla.
  • Regulatory approval for Tesla's robo-taxi has improved, prompting a shift in focus towards developing autonomous vehicles instead of traditional cars.
  • Tom Lee is optimistic about Tesla's stock, emphasizing the importance of battery supply for scaling production and the potential of a lower-priced model in larger markets like India.
• 16:56 🚀 Tom Lee is bullish on Tesla stock, citing its strong product success and growth potential despite current challenges.
  • The speaker highlights the impressive product success rate of Elon Musk, comparing it to historical figures like Edison.
  • Tom Lee is highly optimistic about Tesla stock, noting its potential for growth despite current challenges and the perception that it is sold out rather than oversold.
• 19:33 🚗 Tom Lee is bullish on Tesla, citing its strong supply chain in China and potential tariff exemptions, while warning that trade tensions with China could have severe consequences.
  • Tom Lee is bullish on Tesla, believing that its strong supply chain in China and potential exemptions from tariffs will mitigate risks associated with the market.
  • China's anger could lead to severe consequences for the US, and engaging in a trade war with China may not be a wise strategy.
  • Tesla remains crucial for China, as BYD struggles financially and relies on government support, making any disruption to Tesla potentially harmful for the Chinese market.
  • China's economic challenges are leading to increased vehicle purchases as consumers anticipate rising prices due to tariffs, but this may negatively impact future retail spending.
• 24:54 📉 The economy is in a rolling recession with a 60% chance of a recession continuing, driven by trade war concerns and limited recovery expected until resolutions are made.
  • The odds of a recession remain at 60%, influenced by the Trump administration's tariff decisions and the ongoing trade war.
  • Sales of cars have surged due to preemptive buying amid tariff concerns, but the economy has been in a rolling recession for over a year and a half.
  • The economy is in a recession, with limited recovery expected until the trade war with China is resolved.
• 28:24 🚀 Tom Lee and his team remain bullish on Tesla stock, showing optimism despite market uncertainties.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pX1ox8hz_HY