Tesla FSD 13.2.8 and Waymo drive the same route

Autonomous Driving Technology

🚗 Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is the most advanced in the world, enabling door-to-door driving on city streets and highways without human intervention.

🔮 FSD technology is expected to reach unsupervised driving in 2025, with a 3x larger model making the experience more human-like.

👁️ Tesla's vision-only approach to self-driving, relying on deep learning and data from 7 million+ global vehicles, provides a significant scalability advantage over competitors.

🏙️ Widespread adoption of robotaxis could free up 25% of city land currently used for parking, transforming urban design.

Market Disruption

💰 Tesla's FSD system is projected to undercut Uber's pricing by 25-35% while offering a superior experience.

📱 Tesla's upcoming ride-share network, revealed in their mobile app code, will offer a vertically integrated, personalized, and cheaper alternative to Uber.

🚐 Tesla's planned robo-van for large groups and various applications could disrupt multiple industries, including package delivery and food trucks.

💼 Legacy automakers struggle to compete with Tesla in FSD due to lack of fleet data, tech expertise, and resources, likely leading to licensing FSD technology from Tesla.

Economic Impact

🤖 Optimus robots could enable new industries by drastically reducing the cost of moving goods, making services like food delivery much cheaper.

💼 The transition to automation may temporarily displace lower economic rung workers, requiring society to ensure they can find new roles.

🌾 Society will need to create new jobs as robots take over tasks, transforming the economy similar to the shift from agriculture 10,000 years ago.

💰 Humanoid robots like Optimus could create a trillion-dollar market, but the transition period may cause challenges in regions without enough jobs.

Technological Advancements

🧠 Tesla's autonomous vehicles offer a consistent, private, and safer alternative to human-driven ride-sharing.

💻 Nvidia's new chips and software improvements consistently reduce the cost of training and inference for AI models over time.

🏭 Tesla's vertical integration across self-driving model training, chip production, ride-sharing network, and vehicle design gives them a competitive advantage in delivering the lowest cost per mile for FSD.

🔬 The complexity of humanoid robots, requiring practically human-level AGI, makes them more challenging to develop than self-driving cars.

Industry Challenges

🚧 Job displacement from Optimus robots may affect employee morale for jobs ultimately replaced by the technology.

🏭 Optimus robots will likely tackle the worst factory jobs, improving quality and reducing injuries in dangerous car factories.

🌐 The transitionary period of automation may cause despair in regions without enough jobs, similar to when the US moved manufacturing to China and Mexico.

👨‍💼 Elon Musk's tight production timelines for Optimus should be taken with caution due to the complexity of humanoid robots compared to cars.

Future Implications

🚕 In a world of robotaxis, the need for urban parking diminishes, potentially transforming city design and layout.

📊 As FSD technology matures, the addressable market for affordable point-to-point transportation will expand dramatically.

🏙️ Tesla's autonomous vehicles could provide a dramatically better experience compared to traditional ride-sharing, with features like privacy and personalization.

🌟 Tesla's first-mover advantage in FSD has attracted top talent, with Elon Musk's vision drawing in engineers and setting a clear direction for the team.

• 00:00 🚗 Tesla's FSD is leading in self-driving technology, advancing towards unsupervised service and reshaping transportation habits, while legacy automakers struggle to keep up.
  • Legacy automakers struggle to compete with Tesla in full self-driving technology due to a lack of fleet data, technological expertise, and resources for advanced computing.
  • Tesla's FSD is the most advanced self-driving system, allowing users to travel long distances without touching the wheel, despite perceptions that Waymo is ahead.
  • Tesla's FSD is advancing towards unsupervised service this year, promising to surpass human safety and significantly enhance utility.
  • The advancement of autonomous vehicle technology will likely make long-distance travel more appealing and affordable, leading to a significant shift in transportation habits and a decline in car ownership.
  • Self-driving technology can significantly enhance economic access and reshape urban layouts by reducing transportation costs and providing comfortable, private travel options.
  • Tesla's FSD is improving to the point where the requirement to monitor the road and avoid phone use may soon be lifted, allowing for more freedom while driving.
• 07:21 🚗 Self-driving cars, particularly Tesla's FSD, could revolutionize urban design and transportation by offering cheaper, efficient, and reliable ride-sharing options, potentially disrupting traditional services like Uber.
  • Self-driving cars will significantly increase travel, reshape urban design by reducing parking needs, and transform transportation and real estate dynamics.
  • Self-driving vehicles can significantly improve transportation efficiency and customer service by reducing waiting costs and allowing for strategic staging at high-demand events.
  • Tesla's advancements in AI and autonomous driving could reshape urban landscapes by reducing the need for close parking, while the company is capable of developing its own robot taxi ecosystem independently of Uber.
  • Tesla's robotaxi service could attract users away from Uber if it offers cheaper rides, despite the existing popularity of the Uber app.
  • Tesla's FSD could disrupt Uber by offering a cheaper, driverless ride-sharing option, making human-driven rides obsolete.
  • Inconsistent experiences with ridesharing services lead to issues like unreliable pickups and geofence limitations.
• 18:26 🚗 Tesla's FSD update is set to revolutionize ride-sharing, challenging Uber and enhancing safety and privacy, while Waymo gains traction in San Francisco despite trust issues with autonomous vehicles.
  • Tesla is advancing its ride share network, posing a significant threat to Uber, while the current version of Tesla's FSD is nearing readiness for widespread use.
  • Tesla's upcoming FSD update, featuring a 3x larger model, aims to enhance driving behavior and safety, potentially revolutionizing ride-sharing services.
  • The shift from ridesharing with strangers to owning self-driving cars enhances privacy and transforms the driving experience, though some still struggle to trust autonomous technology.
  • Fear of self-driving cars often stems from a lack of control, but once people experience them, they often feel safer than in human-driven vehicles, especially for women concerned about safety.
  • The rise of Waymo as a leading ride service in San Francisco is attributed to its privacy, comfort, and lower cost compared to traditional options like Uber, despite lingering trust issues with autonomous vehicles.
  • The Cyber Cab offers a spacious and comfortable experience, surpassing traditional rideshare options, while the Roven is designed for larger groups and versatile applications.
• 28:10 🚗 Tesla's innovative approach to autonomous vehicles, leveraging vast data and customization potential, contrasts with Waymo's more traditional methods.
  • The speaker expresses surprise at the design of the robo van, referring to it as a "toaster on wheels."
  • Tesla may adopt an airline model by manufacturing autonomous vehicles in high volumes and allowing customization for various use cases, potentially outsourcing interior modifications to simplify production.
  • Tesla's vehicle concepts showcase diverse potential applications, including mobile food trucks and large vehicles, highlighting an open space for innovative designs.
  • Tesla's FSD technology is seen as fundamentally sound, with expectations for future hardware improvements, while Waymo's approach differs significantly.
  • Tesla's pure vision approach to self-driving, despite skepticism, has proven effective by focusing on predicting future actions rather than relying solely on spatial mapping and sensors.
  • Tesla's advantage in self-driving technology stems from its vast data collection from over 7 million vehicles, making it more scalable than competitors like Waymo, which relies on a smaller fleet.
• 35:30 🚗 Tesla's leadership, vertical integration, and data advantage position it ahead in self-driving technology, while its FSD updates hint at future robotaxi launches amidst rising competition from Chinese manufacturers.
  • Tesla's vertical integration and extensive data collection give it a significant advantage in self-driving technology, making it difficult for legacy automakers to compete.
  • Elon's leadership and vision are crucial in attracting talent to Tesla, significantly contributing to the company's advancements in Full Self-Driving technology and its potential revenue growth.
  • Effective leadership involves leading by example and maintaining a clear vision, which inspires team commitment and perseverance in the face of challenges, as demonstrated by Tesla's relentless pursuit of self-driving technology.
  • Tesla's FSD update shows promise for a potential launch of the Cybertruck or Model Y as a robotaxi, with expectations for significant advancements in AI technology this year.
  • The discussion centers on the rapid advancements in Tesla's Optimus robot program and the contrasting public perception of its feasibility by 2025.
  • Chinese manufacturers are aggressively advancing in the market.
• 46:36 🤖 Tesla is advancing its technology with the Optimus project, which may enhance efficiency but also raises concerns about job displacement and the future of human labor.
  • Tesla is strategically advancing its technology and production plans, particularly for the Optimus project at Fremont, while preparing for mass production and leveraging local engineering resources.
  • Rapid advancements in AI and robotics are expected to create significant industry shifts and cost reductions in logistics, leading to both excitement and resistance among the workforce.
  • The introduction of Optimus robots at Tesla may impact employee morale and job roles, prompting a reevaluation of human versus robotic labor in the evolving economy.
  • Optimus represents a continuation of automation that enhances human work by taking over repetitive tasks, allowing workers to focus on more meaningful roles while improving efficiency and reducing errors.
  • Robots in factories, like Tesla's Optimus, could improve safety and efficiency by taking over dangerous and repetitive jobs, but this may displace low-wage workers who rely on those positions.
  • The transition to automation raises concerns about job displacement and the economy's ability to adapt, leaving some individuals temporarily vulnerable despite potential long-term benefits.
• 57:59 🤖 The rise of AI and humanoid robots may disrupt jobs but could also create new opportunities, with Tesla poised to lead the robotics market despite challenges in scaling production.
  • The rise of humanoid robots and AI will disrupt jobs but historically, technological advancements have led to new opportunities and roles that we cannot yet envision.
  • Increased automation may lead to cheaper goods and services, benefiting society overall, but the transition period could pose challenges for displaced workers.
  • The shift from human labor to robots in manufacturing is creating economic despair in regions left behind, raising concerns about society's ability to adapt to rapid technological changes.
  • Elon Musk's ambitious goal of producing 10,000 Optimus robots this year is likely unrealistic, but achieving several thousand is possible, highlighting the complexity and challenges of scaling production.
  • Tesla's advancements in FSD and real-world AI position it uniquely to dominate the emerging trillion-dollar humanoid robotics market, leveraging its manufacturing expertise and integrated ecosystem.
  • Elon is likely correct that training AI is ten times more complex, but advancements in Nvidia chips and software are consistently reducing training and inference costs.
• 01:09:33 🚗 Tesla's advanced AI for self-driving cars is easier to develop than robotics, supported by $36 billion in cash and strong supplier ties.
  • Self-driving cars are simpler for AI to navigate than robots, as roads are well-marked and structured, while robots must learn to navigate diverse and unstructured environments.
  • Tesla is developing advanced AI for robotics, requiring human-level intelligence and strong supplier relationships, while holding a record $36 billion in cash.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=abtlRFr6Ezk