All-In's 2026 Predictions

California Wealth Tax Impact

🚨 Q: How could California's 5% asset seizure tax bankrupt entrepreneurs with illiquid stock? A: Entrepreneurs would need to sell twice the amount of their net worth to cover the tax on unrealized gains because selling stock triggers additional taxes, potentially bankrupting companies with no liquidity.

💰 Q: What would California's wealth tax cost super voting shareholders like Larry Page and Sergey Brin? A: The tax multiplies voting ownership percentage by market cap to value super voting shares, resulting in a punitive tax rate of up to 50% on net worth for founders with control premiums.

🏃 Q: How much wealth could leave California if the asset seizure tax passes? A: An estimated half a trillion dollars in net worth could exit the state, creating severe budget implications for California's social programs and general budget.

📊 Q: What should entrepreneurs do to prepare for potential wealth taxes on unrealized gains? A: Maintain a liquid safety net to cover tax bills on unrealized gains, though this is impossible to plan for if stock values later decline and bankrupt the company.

2026 Business Opportunities

🤖 Q: Which company will become the first with more robots than humans? A: Amazon is predicted to become the first company with more robots than humans driving its bottom line by 2026 as they deploy robots while keeping human hiring flat.

📈 Q: Why is copper predicted to go parabolic in 2026? A: Copper shortages for data centers, chips, and weapon systems will create a 70% shortfall by 2040 at current demand-supply dynamics, driving prices up dramatically.

💼 Q: What type of IPO activity is expected in 2026? A: Mega IPOs from companies like SpaceX, Stripe, and OpenAI are anticipated, potentially creating trillions of dollars in new market cap for public companies.

🔧 Q: How is 100% accelerated depreciation driving infrastructure investment? A: 100% accelerated depreciation for capital equipment like tractors, generators, and seaman stocks is creating a massive infrastructure build-out and contributing to GDP growth as businesses invest again.

M&A and Deal Strategies

🤝 Q: What M&A workaround could enable 50+ billion dollar deals in 2026? A: IP licensing deals could bypass traditional M&A challenges, enabling 50+ billion dollar deals with companies like Apple, Meta, Microsoft, or Amazon acquiring AI firms like Anthropic or Perplexity.

🚀 Q: How might SpaceX go public without a traditional IPO? A: SpaceX may reverse merge into Tesla for consolidated control of Elon Musk's key assets rather than pursuing a traditional IPO.

📺 Q: What deal could determine Netflix's 2026 performance? A: Netflix faces potential underperformance if it doesn't close the Warner Brothers deal, as it competes against independent creators and citizen journalism.

🔄 Q: How could Trump administration policies boost M&A activity? A: Trump administration easing regulations could enable companies to merge and grow from MAG 7 to MAG 17, increasing global market footprints.

AI and Automation Disruption

💻 Q: How will AI disrupt the $3-4 trillion SaaS economy in 2026? A: Software companies selling licensed SaaS to corporations may see revenue shrink as AI models and techniques disrupt maintenance and migration patterns in the $3-4 trillion/year economy.

👨💼 Q: What employment challenge will Gen Z face in 2026? A: Young white-collar workers will struggle to find entry-level jobs as companies increasingly automate with AI rather than training Gen Z graduates.

📊 Q: Why will AI increase demand for knowledge workers despite automation? A: According to Sachs' Jevans paradox, as the cost of generating code and scans decreases, more use cases emerge, leading to increased demand for coders and radiologists.

Political and Regulatory Shifts

🗳️ Q: What political shift threatens Democratic moderates in 2026? A: Democratic centrism is predicted to lose as socialist ideology ascends among the Democratic base, especially young people, with fewer than two dozen truly competitive House races due to gerrymandering.

🌎 Q: How is the Monroe Doctrine changing under Trump's approach? A: The Monroe Doctrine is shifting towards transactional relationships and unilateralism under the Trump doctrine, moving away from hemispheric dominance and proactive intervention.

🏛️ Q: What financial scrutiny will state governments face in 2026? A: State governments may face financing problems due to exposés on waste, fraud, and abuse in state agencies, leading to questions about long-term solvency and operations.

🔍 Q: What government spending reform is needed for transparency? A: Independent audits of all government spending, including the Pentagon, are needed to normalize public scrutiny of where taxpayer money is going.

Tech Industry Challenges

⚡ Q: What political pressure will the tech industry face in 2026? A: Populism rises on both left and right, with the right fracturing the alliance between tech and MAGA, and the left turning hard on tech due to its alignment with the right.

🏢 Q: What will drive business exodus from California in 2026? A: California's wealth tax and onerous regulations will drive business and capital out of the state, with potential panic if the tax makes the ballot.

Geopolitical Predictions

🇮🇷 Q: What major Middle East shift could occur in 2026? A: Iran's potential transition to an independent democratic state, driven by a youthful population and economic crisis, could be one of the biggest geopolitical shifts in the Middle East.

🏜️ Q: What regional conflict may intensify in the Middle East in 2026? A: Middle East conflict may intensify among Gulf states like UAE, Saudi, and Qatar, vying for influence as Iran undergoes regime change and the two-state solution emerges.

Financial and Crypto Trends

🔐 Q: What cryptocurrency development could central banks pursue? A: Central banks could seek a new cryptographic currency that is fungible, tradable, secure, and private to hedge against potential quantum computing threats to existing cryptographic schemes.

Media and Content Evolution

📰 Q: What media trend will grow in 2026? A: Citizen journalism is expected to grow with more expose-style reporting and investigative work as traditional media models are disrupted and monetization emerges through Substack and YouTube.

Global Economic Trends

🌐 Q: What macro trends must economic actors understand in 2026? A: Unilateralism and economic resilience are massive global trends that will have significant impact on GDP growth as countries prioritize self-sufficiency.

Investment Strategy

📉 Q: What asset class faces challenges from independent creators? A: Traditional media stocks may struggle against the rise of independent creators and citizen journalism, threatening content libraries and creator relationships.

Market Access

📊 Q: Why is the public eager for mega IPOs in 2026? A: The public wants to participate in the limited number of publicly traded companies and secondary market trading, creating demand for mega IPOs from high-growth private companies.

 

California Wealth Tax Crisis

🏛️ California's proposed 5% asset seizure tax on illiquid net worth could drive out half a trillion dollars in wealth, potentially bankrupting entrepreneurs stuck with illiquid stock and massive tax bills even if their companies fail the following year.

💼 The tax would multiply super voting shares by the company's market cap, potentially deeming Larry Page and Sergey Brin's shares worth $1 trillion each, creating punitive tax burdens that could force their departure from California.

🤝 The asset seizure tax is uniting left and right, with even Reid Hoffman opposing it, threatening to drive out half the wealth the state estimated would be taxable with massive implications for social programs and budget.

🏠 California luxury real estate is predicted to underperform in 2026 due to the wealth tax overhang, which could freeze the high-end market as wealthy residents anticipate the policy.

📉 California is predicted to be a business loser in 2026 due to the proposed wealth tax and onerous regulations driving business and capital out, with potential for a panic and rush for exits if measures reach the ballot.

Government Finance and Accountability

💰 State governments face challenges in financing due to exposés on waste, fraud, and abuse in agencies, raising questions about long-term solvency and unrealized pension liabilities that could impact their ability to access capital markets.

🔍 Whistleblowers and independent audits of all government spending, including the Pentagon, are needed to ensure transparency and accountability in 2026.

Political Landscape Shifts

🗳️ Democratic centrism is losing ground as socialist ideology ascends among young Democrats, with fewer than two dozen truly competitive House districts due to gerrymandering, exposing incumbents to challenges from the left.

🌎 The Monroe Doctrine is being replaced by Trump's transactional approach to hemispheric dominance, focusing on specific interventions against drug cartels, immigration control, and securing vital assets with more flexible responses.

⚖️ The tech industry faces populist backlash from both right due to past censorship and deplatforming and left over perceived alignment with conservative causes, with calls for truth and reconciliation meetings between tech leaders and conservative influencers.

Commodity and Asset Markets

🔶 Copper is set to become a parabolic asset by 2040, with a projected 70% global supply shortage due to its critical role in data centers, chips, and weapon systems amid shift towards unilateral national security.

💵 The US dollar will face challenges in 2026 due to unabated debt growth, with people moving to gold, silver, and copper as alternatives.

⚡ The trend towards electrification and energy storage will shrink demand for oil, leading to lower prices as the usefulness of oil decreases.

Capital Markets and IPOs

📈 IPOs in 2026 could create trillions in new market cap for public companies, reversing the trend of shrinking public company numbers and privatizations as part of the broader Trump Boom.

🚀 M&A and IPO activity is anticipated to surge in 2026, with potential mega IPOs from SpaceX, Stripe, OpenAI, and Anthropic, benefiting employees, pension funds, and endowments owning shares.

🔄 Chamath predicts SpaceX will reverse merge into Tesla, consolidating Elon Musk's control over his key assets rather than going public.

Automation and Labor Markets

🤖 Amazon is predicted to become the first company with more robots than humans driving its bottom line in 2026 due to advancements in automation technology and warehouses near urban centers enabling same-day delivery.

📊 Amazon's robot deployment is surging while human hiring remains flat, with the company's self-driving technology making significant progress, positioning Amazon as key player in the robotics revolution.

👔 Young white-collar workers in America may struggle to find entry-level jobs as companies increasingly turn to AI automation instead of training Gen Z graduates, requiring resilience and self-reliance among young people.

🔧 AI tools are expected to play significant role in job market for young people, with those using AI tools more likely to find employment while those who don't may face challenges as companies automate tasks typically done by young graduates.

📈 AI will increase demand for knowledge workers like engineers and radiologists in 2026 as cost of generating code and scans decreases, leading to more use cases and better outcomes.

Software and Technology Industry

💻 The software industrial complex selling licensed SaaS to corporations is expected to see shrinkage in economic opportunity due to advancements in AI models and techniques, particularly in maintenance and migration of software representing 90% of their revenue.

📺 Netflix may struggle to compete with deep content libraries from other providers unless they close the Warner Brothers deal, as creators prefer better terms elsewhere.

Economic Policy and Infrastructure

🏗️ 100% accelerated depreciation for capital equipment like tractors, generators, and Caterpillar machinery in 2026 due to the big beautiful bill and tax cuts is creating massive infrastructure build-out in the US, benefiting equipment sellers and driving GDP growth.

🌐 The Trump doctrine of unilateralism and economic resilience will expand in 2026, impacting businesses, stock market investors, and cryptocurrency speculators, with massive GDP growth expected as result.

Media and Journalism

📰 Citizen journalism will rise in 2026, with active investigative reporting and exposé videos becoming major media trend as journalism work gets decentralized and more content is shared and uncovered.

🎥 Nick Shirley, an investigative journalist, is highlighted for exposing the need to fix fraud and waste before seizing assets, calling California's proposed asset seizure tax a terrible idea that could bankrupt companies.

• 00:00 💰 Wealthy individuals are fleeing or considering fleeing California due to proposed wealth taxes, with potential severe economic repercussions for the state.
  • Jason Cowakanis and his friends, including David Freedberg who recently moved to Austin, Texas, catch up on his relocation and new life in the state.
  • Several high-net-worth individuals, including the speakers, are considering or have left California due to the state's wealth tax, with some, like Chamath, possibly "hedging their bets" by secretly making arrangements to leave despite publicly vowing to stay.
  • A proposed asset tax in California could lead to a mass exodus of wealthy individuals and entrepreneurs, causing significant repercussions for the state's budget and economy.
  • Democrats should fix the issue of fraud and not seize people's assets before discussing tax increases, and a proposed 5% tax on certain assets could effectively become 25% or more for wealthy individuals with super voting shares.
  • The speakers discuss the likelihood of a wealth tax, also referred to as a "seizure tax", making it onto the California ballot and passing, with current polymarket odds at 69% for it making the ballot and varying opinions on its chances of passing.
  • A new housing commissioner is making inflammatory statements, including expressing anger at seeing white babies and advocating for a new relationship between white people and property rights.
• 12:06 🌎 The panel predicts significant changes in 2026, with potential winners including Democratic Socialists, anti-corruption advocates, and a possible Trump-led economic boom, while losers may include centrist Democrats, the Monroe Doctrine, and the tech industry.
  • The panel predicts that 2026 will see significant political and economic trends, with potential biggest political winners including the Democratic Socialists of America, whoever can effectively fight waste, fraud, and abuse, and a predicted Trump-led economic boom with estimated GDP growth ranging from 4 to 6%.
  • The speaker predicts Mandami as the big political winner in 2026, edging out JD Vance, citing Trump's shift towards neoconservatism and failure to address American people's needs as fuel for Mandami's rise.
  • The speaker predicts democratic centrist ideology will be a loser in 2026 due to the Democratic party's shift to the left, driven by fear of being challenged from the left and the influence of woke ideology among young people.
  • The Monroe Doctrine and the tech industry are predicted to be the biggest losers of 2026, with the former being supplanted by Trump's worldview of hemispheric dominance and transactional relationships, and the latter facing a populist backlash from both sides of the aisle due to its perceived alignment with MAGA and wealth concentration.
  • Tech companies, having realized their mistake in censoring conservatives, may make amends and shift their donation strategy, potentially catalyzing a big change in Silicon Valley.
  • The US operation against Venezuela was a "flawless" three-hour military action with no American casualties, successfully capturing Maduro and bringing him to justice without requiring a prolonged invasion, occupation, or nation-building effort.
• 28:50 💡 The speakers predict major events in 2026, including a potential deal with a country like Greenland, a parabolic surge in copper prices, successful IPOs, and big wins for companies like Huawei, Poly Market, and Amazon.
  • The Democrats criticize the administration for not propping up Maria Karina Machado's power in Venezuela, but the reality is that Nobel prizes don't keep people in power, men with guns do.
  • The speaker praises Trump's strategic handling of a recent military operation, noting that despite the success, things could have gone wrong and resulted in significant loss of American lives, but predicts that a deal will be made with a country, likely Greenland, that they can't refuse.
  • The biggest business winners predicted for 2026 include Huawei, due to its partnerships and chip stack advancements, and Poly Market, expected to provide valuable insights and potentially become a major news source.
  • The speakers predict that copper will experience a parabolic price surge due to a looming 70% global supply shortage by 2040, and also foresee a surge in successful IPOs in 2026, potentially creating trillions of dollars in new market cap.
  • Jason predicts Amazon will have a massive year in 2026 as it continues to replace humans with robots and surges in deploying cobots, potentially becoming the first company with more robots driving its bottom line than humans.
  • The speakers discuss their personal financial losses, including divesting from Gro and XAI, and jokingly mention a lost bet and a "moral compass" that never arrived, highlighting the costs of their involvement.
• 39:46 💡 State governments face financial crisis, software industry to shrink, young workers struggle with AI-driven job market, and tech giants shift to IP license deals in 2026.
  • The speaker predicts that state governments will face financial difficulties in 2026 due to issues with waste, fraud, and abuse, unrealized pension liabilities, and a flawed defined-benefit system, which may lead to a crisis in borrowing and accessing capital markets.
  • The software industrial complex, a $3-4 trillion economy driven largely by maintenance and migration revenue, is poised to shrink aggressively in 2026 due to advancements in technology and models, severely impacting public SaaS companies.
  • Young white-collar workers in America may struggle to find entry-level jobs due to companies opting for AI automation over training, making it essential for them to be self-reliant and consider entrepreneurship.
  • The challenges young people face in finding employment may be partially due to a cultural phenomenon, such as a lack of motivation or entitlement, rather than solely being caused by AI and automation.
  • Coding assistants and tool use will significantly grow in 2026, while the Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to settle out this year, bringing regional stability.
  • Traditional M&A is effectively dead due to regulatory hurdles, and tech giants will increasingly use IP license deals as a workaround, with a potential $50 billion-plus deal on the horizon.
• 55:37 💡 The speakers predict 2026 trends including Middle East conflict, AI-driven job gains, US economic growth, and shifts in assets and markets.
  • The speaker predicts increased conflict in the Middle East among Gulf states, potentially sparked by Iran's regime change and a rising independence movement in Somaliland, as they vie for influence and power.
  • AI will increase demand for knowledge workers, and despite common narratives, job gains will occur as automation makes certain tasks more efficient and accessible, leading to increased demand.
  • The speakers predict various 2026 trends, including central banks adopting a new, controllable, and private cryptographic paradigm, a potential resolution to the US-China standoff, and identify potential best-performing assets, such as a basket of critical metals and expanding tech super cycle.
  • The US economy is poised for significant growth in 2026, driven by surging productivity, immigration, and AI, with predicted GDP growth of 5-6% and a potential boom in certain assets like Robinhood and Coinbase.
  • The speakers predict a potential boom in housing as individuals, not corporations, buy homes due to tax cuts, earnings growth, and lower interest rates, while also forecasting California luxury real estate as a worst-performing asset in 2026.
  • No significant information is conveyed in this excerpt.
• 01:11:02 💡 The speakers predict a strong 2026 with a surge in M&A and IPOs, driven by economic resilience, while warning of underperformance in traditional media, hydrocarbons, and the US dollar.
  • The worst performing assets in 2026 are predicted to be hydrocarbons, the US dollar, and Netflix if it doesn't close the Warner Brothers deal, while traditional media stocks are also expected to underperform.
  • The accelerated depreciation policy for certain capital equipment, such as generators and tractors, is driving a massive infrastructure buildout in the US, boosting GDP and benefiting companies that sell these assets.
  • Nuclear power may face economic challenges due to decreasing marginal cost of electricity from solar and storage, but an inflection point may arise as global demand for electricity increases.
  • Government spending at all levels needs to be audited, with a focus on normalizing independent audits and allowing whistleblowers to ensure transparency, starting with those who currently prohibit audits.
  • The speakers predict a strong 2026 with a surge in M&A and IPOs, citing a potential mega IPO from companies like SpaceX, Stripe, or OpenAI, driven by the Trump doctrine of unilateralism and economic resilience.
  • The trend of citizen journalism, particularly proactive investigative content, is expected to rise in 2026, driven by decentralized media, social platforms' monetization options, and the popularity of content like "First Amendment auditing" videos.
• 01:25:27 📺 The All-In podcast shares 2026 predictions, discussing upcoming movies and nearing 1 million YouTube subscribers.
  • Christopher Nolan's upcoming movie adaptation of Homer's Odyssey is expected to be epic but the speaker thinks the book is terrible.
  • The speakers predict and discuss upcoming movies, including Dune 3, Doom Part 3, and Avengers Doomsday, speculating on their plots and potential impact.
  • The All-In podcast is close to hitting 1 million YouTube subscribers, a milestone they should have reached earlier if they had prompted viewers to like and subscribe.
  • The hosts of the show believe that their combined subscriber base and diverse perspectives allow them to outperform individually and attract a wide range of viewers, including those who tune in specifically to "hate watch" certain hosts.
• 01:29:37 🤣 The All-In podcast crew wraps up a successful year, teases their 2027 prospects, and jokingly discusses their personal lives amidst a lighthearted banter-filled conversation.

WatchUrl: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yEb2DX0TzKM