Tesla and SpaceX are leading advancements in technology and sustainability, with Tesla focusing on Full Self-Driving, energy solutions, and economic shifts, while SpaceX celebrates significant milestones in its Starlink program
Questions to inspire discussion
Tesla's Financial Strategy
🚗 Q: How much has Tesla spent on capex and R&D since Q3 2012?
A: Tesla's cumulative spending on capex and R&D since Q3 2012 exceeds $75B, with capex around $50B and R&D $25B.
💰 Q: What is Tesla's capex guidance for 2025?
A: Tesla's 10-Q guidance for 2025 capex is over $10B, with quarterly spending of $2.5B+ expected for the next three quarters.
🔬 Q: What areas is Tesla currently investing in?
A: Tesla is simultaneously developing new products, manufacturing facilities on three continents, battery cell tech, supercharger network expansion, and AI products.
Autonomous Driving and AI
🚘 Q: How has Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) improved recently?
A: Tesla's FSD has significantly improved in the last six months and is expected to get even better with the next update.
🤖 Q: Which jobs are likely to be replaced by bots first?
A: Bots will likely replace expensive, high-skill jobs first, such as those requiring extensive training and safety measures, to maximize economic savings.
Future Trends
🌱 Q: How will food production change in the future?
A: Localized food production will rise with robots, leading to a return of backyard farming and community gardens, potentially driving food prices towards zero.
🏘️ Q: What types of properties are expected to be good investments in the future?
A: High-quality, well-located properties (e.g., beachfront, golf course) are likely to appreciate in value, especially as people have more money to spend on real estate.
🧹 Q: How will bots impact urban cleanliness?
A: Bots will take over tasks like cleaning streets, beaches, and highways, making environments as clean as Singapore and reducing the need for human maintenance.
Corporate Developments
🔍 Q: What was the controversy regarding Tesla's CEO search?
A: Tesla's board and Elon Musk refuted a false Wall Street Journal article about a CEO search, calling it an extremely bad breach of ethics.
🚀 Q: How has Google's investment in SpaceX performed?
A: Google's $1B investment in SpaceX alongside Fidelity in 2015 has paid off, with Google earning an extra $8B profit in Q1 2023 due to their partnership and data center usage.
Societal Challenges
💎 Q: What is considered the most critical challenge for wealthy societies?
A: Wealth is seen as the most critical challenge society must confront to avoid becoming soft, distracted, and bored.
🎭 Q: How might people in wealthy cultures cope with boredom?
A: As cultures become wealthy, people may seek amusement in extreme experiences or turn to substance abuse to cope with boredom and anxiety.
Key Insights
Future of Energy and Economy
🌞 A "Manhattan Project" for energy focusing on solar, nuclear, and AI-driven solutions is needed to meet growing demand from AI and other technologies, as energy abundance predicts a country's wealth.
🔋 Abundant, inexpensive energy from solar, nuclear, and future technologies like room-temperature superconductors will enable limitless AI growth, with energy costs trending towards zero.
💰 Tony Seba's "Stellar" economy envisions a transition where energy, transportation, food, AI, and humanoid robots drive costs towards zero, requiring new political, economic, and societal structures.
Tesla and SpaceX Developments
🚗 Tesla's cumulative capex and R&D spending since Q3 2012 exceeds $75 billion, with capex around $50 billion and R&D about $25 billion.
🚀 In December 2024, SpaceX's valuation reportedly soared to $350B in just one month after its latest round of employee share purchases.
🤖 Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) has significantly improved in the last six months, providing a completely different experience, with the next update expected to be a level ahead.
Future of Work and Automation
🦾 As bots become more capable, they will replace expensive, high-skill jobs first for the biggest economic savings, particularly in roles requiring extensive training, safety measures, and costly operations.
⏰ Four-shift companies will be first to adopt bots, as they can realize 400% more value compared to single-shift companies, making them willing to invest heavily in automation.
🧹 With bots handling low-skill, repetitive tasks, humans may revert to old habits like littering, knowing robots will quickly clean up, leading to exceptionally clean environments.
Future of Housing and Real Estate
🏠 As population declines, real estate values may drop, especially for customized homes unappealing to next buyers, while prime properties like beachfront and golf course will continue to appreciate.
🌱 Localized, backyard food production will thrive with robot assistance, allowing people to grow significant crops even in small spaces.
Economic Transitions
💳 As costs of goods and services trend towards zero, home ownership will remain valuable, while healthcare costs may decrease significantly.
💼 The transition to a "stellar economy" will require navigating challenges like universal basic income and government funding, while maintaining inflation to avoid deflation and ensure debt repayment.
Technological Partnerships and Competition
🤝 Google, Waymo, and Toyota formed a partnership to advance autonomous driving technology for personally owned vehicles, impacting Tesla's stock price.
Future Societal Changes
🚯 With robots handling cleaning, environments may become exceptionally clean, reminiscent of Singapore's cleanliness standards.
🍅 Backyard food production with robot assistance will allow people to experience the true flavors of homegrown produce.
💵 In a future economy, only experiences and luxury items may require earning money as basic needs costs approach zero.
🧠 Artificial Labor (AL) combined with AI will significantly change lifestyles and investment strategies, particularly benefiting Tesla investors.
#Abundance
XMentions: @HabitatsDigital @Abundance360 @TonySeba @JamesArbib @Adam_Dorr @RethinkX @CernBasher
Clips
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00:00 🚀 SpaceX celebrates its 250th Starlink launch while Tesla prepares for a Cybertruck road show to showcase its performance.
- CERN Basher promises an engaging show with Randy on the hot seat, encouraging viewers to stay until the end.
- The discussion highlights the significance of SpaceX's 250th Starlink launch, showcasing the impressive frequency of their rocket launches.
- An armada of long-range rear-wheel drive Cybertrucks is being assembled, with around 70 currently present.
- Tesla should promote the Cybertruck through a road show, allowing potential customers to experience its performance firsthand.
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04:02 🚗 Tesla's advancements in Full Self-Driving impress users, while Elon Musk defends against misleading media narratives and highlights the company's shift towards a decentralized power model amidst resistance from incumbents.
- A recent experience with Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature impressed both a pilot and his wife, highlighting significant improvements in the technology that users should try or revisit.
- Tesla's board is reportedly not seeking a new CEO, despite a false Wall Street Journal report, prompting Elon Musk to criticize the breach of ethics.
- Mainstream media is accused of being criminally negligent and providing misleading financial information that could harm people's decision-making.
- The connection between the Murdoch family, Tesla's board, and the Wall Street Journal's editorial stance raises questions about potential fallout.
- The Wall Street Journal's attempt to destabilize Elon Musk's influence over Tesla backfired, revealing that legacy media can no longer control narratives and highlighting Tesla's evolution into a decentralized power grid beyond just a car company.
- Incumbents are resisting Tesla's success, fearing their own losses despite the overall wealth increase from the transition to new technologies.
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10:47 🚗 Tesla addresses media inaccuracies, focuses on record R&D spending, and plans over $10 billion in global investments while adjusting capital expenditures.
- Tesla's board and CEO issued a statement addressing media inaccuracies, while discussions about potential merchandise ideas, like hats, emerged.
- Tesla has invested over $75 billion in capital expenditures and research and development since Q3 2012, with distinct accounting treatments for each.
- Tesla's spending is currently focused on a record high in R&D while capex has temporarily decreased, reflecting strategic adjustments in response to production shutdowns.
- Tesla's expected capital expenditures for the next three quarters are projected to be around $2.5 billion each, down from an earlier estimate of $11 billion for 2025.
- Tesla plans to invest over $10 billion in global projects, including new manufacturing facilities, battery technology, and expanding its supercharger network.
- Cortex 2 and the semifactory are key developments to consider.
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17:11 🚀 Tesla's mega pack sales are set to soar in Europe post-blackouts, while Google profits from SpaceX investments and collaborates with Toyota on autonomous driving technology.
- Sales of Tesla's mega packs in Spain and Portugal are expected to surge following recent blackouts, potentially prompting new production facilities in Europe.
- Tesla excels in innovation per dollar spent on R&D compared to competitors, though it still trails Apple in return on invested capital due to its younger status.
- Google's investment in SpaceX has significantly boosted its profits, while Elon Musk's wealth is now tied to both SpaceX and Tesla.
- Google, Waymo, and Toyota are partnering to enhance autonomous driving technology for personally owned vehicles, while the rise of robo-taxis may reduce the need for vehicle ownership.
- Toyota aims for zero traffic accidents and enhanced mobility through automated driving technology, aligning with Waymo's vision for safety.
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22:49 ⚡ Tesla's dominance grows as energy advancements, highlighted by Tony Seba, push for a transformative shift towards a sustainable economy by 2030.
- Jaguar's fleet of iPace vehicles for Waymo has been idle since mid-2024, raising concerns about their deployment as Tesla gains market dominance.
- The U.S. power generation is at risk of being outpaced by AI demand by 2030, necessitating accelerated energy solutions.
- The U.S. should prioritize diverse energy sources, especially solar and nuclear, to enhance wealth and meet future demands, as emphasized by Elon Musk's preference for solar plus battery solutions.
- Tony Seba's book "Stellar" emphasizes the critical role of energy in future developments.
- Tony Seba predicts that advancements in energy, transportation, food production, AI, and robotics will drive costs towards zero, leading to a transformative shift from an extraction-based economy to a stellar economy.
- A transition to a new system, as proposed by Tony Seba, requires overcoming significant challenges and rethinking our current political, economic, and societal structures.
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32:02 🚀 As the economy shifts towards low-cost goods and increased automation, property values may rise, new job opportunities will emerge, and funding for universal basic income remains a challenge amid evolving financial dynamics.
- As the marginal cost of goods approaches zero, the value of items decreases, yet ownership and care for what we possess will persist.
- Home prices will rise as disposable income increases, leading to more investment in property and luxury items while healthcare costs decrease.
- Tony Seba's views on the future economy overlook the enduring role of religion, while questions remain about funding universal basic income in a world dominated by humanoid robots.
- Future job markets will evolve, creating new opportunities for human services despite concerns about universal income funding amid government debt.
- Governments may print money to maintain inflation amid deflation from robotics and AI, allowing them to manage debt while productivity increases could lead to significantly lower costs for basic needs.
- To attend events like concerts, we need to find ways to earn money, including considering Tesla's pricing.
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40:31 🤖 Humanoid robots are set to replace manual labor jobs, driving economic incentives and entrepreneurial activity while addressing energy demands and demographic challenges without conflict among energy technologies.
- Humanoid robots will likely replace manual labor jobs based on affordability and value rather than the nature of the work, with potential for autonomous operation in various fields as their capabilities increase.
- Replacing expensive jobs first offers the greatest economic incentive, particularly for companies operating multiple shifts.
- Governments may not nationalize production as individuals will increasingly own productive capacity, leading to more entrepreneurial activity and a cleaner environment due to affordable robotic labor.
- Abundance may alleviate some demographic challenges, but the declining birth rates remain a significant concern.
- The discussion centers on the potential impact of robots and AI on child-rearing and energy demand, questioning whether advancements can make parenting easier and if energy costs can trend towards zero despite increasing consumption from AI.
- There will be no conflict between solar, battery, and fusion energy technologies, as the potential for abundant power generation is significant.
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49:29 🌱 The future will see localized food production, a shift to renewable energy, affordable housing, and a need to address wealth disparities, while appreciating Tony Seba's insights on disruption.
- The future of food production may shift towards localized and automated gardening, reducing reliance on processed foods and enhancing the quality and taste of homegrown produce.
- The transition from fossil fuels to nuclear and solar energy, supported by battery technology, will occur as economic factors shift, leading to decreased reliance on oil.
- The future of housing will see cheaper construction and increased customization, potentially leading to a decline in property values overall, except for high-quality locations.
- Wealth is the most significant barrier society must confront to prevent a decline in engagement and purpose over the next 40 years.
- The discussion highlights admiration for Tony Seba's insights on technological disruption while expressing disagreement with his views on government and history.
- The conversation concludes with appreciation and a friendly farewell.
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Duration: 1:3:11
Publication Date: 2025-05-02T09:24:33Z
WatchUrl:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFkGsKT0dnI
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